Bitcoin Live: The Correction Target Is On The Way
Bitcoin Live: The Correction Target Is On The Way
17 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 54 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC) remains bullish longer term, but consider waiting for a pullback toward $78,500–$80,000; a drop to $75,000 may still leave the daily uptrend intact, while a rebound above $90,000 is a possibility—not a certainty.
  • Injective (INJ) has a constructive setup above $6.41, with a potential higher-time-frame target of $9–$10; reassess if Bitcoin weakens.
  • Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) remain constructive above $225 and $315, respectively; a break below either level could signal deeper downside, toward $190 for AMZN and $290 for GOOG.
  • Avoid chasing speculative bounces in weaker names: IREN could fall toward $20 after a weekly close below $28.50–$28.75, while MSTR faces correction risk toward $130–$135 and a more serious warning below $125.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker remained bullish on the broader trend, while expecting a short-term correction. The main corrective area was $78,500–$80,000; a move toward roughly $75,000 could still leave the daily uptrend intact.
  • He expected Bitcoin to form a low around the following week and finish the month higher. He also saw potential for a move above $90,000 from the following week through mid-November, while noting that timing was uncertain.
  • He cited historical results from several technical setups—including a 10-day momentum signal that had been followed by positive returns in many past cases—but stressed that probabilities are not guarantees.
  • He said short-term Fed-rate speculation and CPI/PPI releases offered little reliable trading edge in his view. At the time of the broadcast, prediction markets favored a rate hold over a hike, with PPI due the next day.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s central framework was short-term caution within a still-positive longer-term outlook. The speaker’s key correction zone was $78,500–$80,000, with $75,000 a level he considered important to the daily trend.
  • Treat the projected rebound and $90,000 scenario as probabilistic, not certain. The speaker explicitly acknowledged that his analysis could be wrong and that economic-data-based signals were not dependable enough, in his view, to trade on by themselves.

IREN (IREN)

  • The speaker viewed IREN as having shifted from a possible trading range toward a potential breakdown. He expected a possible short-term bounce near $31–$31.25, but said that would not necessarily signal a reversal.
  • He identified a weekly close below roughly $28.50–$28.75 as a possible breakdown confirmation, with a potential downside area around $20. A move above $49.25 was presented as evidence the bulls would need to regain control.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bias was bearish, despite the possibility of a near-term bounce. In his framework, a bounce alone would not confirm a trend reversal; he wanted to see a recovery above $49.25 before reconsidering the bearish view.

Nexus (crypto; ticker unclear)

  • The speaker said the token’s broader trend was down and pointed to bearish signals on higher time frames.
  • If the weekly close remained around $178 or below, he saw a possible move toward $150. A close back above roughly $178 by the end of the week could improve the picture.

Takeaways

  • The view was conditional and cautious: the weekly close was the key signal. The transcript does not identify a ticker clearly, so verify the asset before using these levels.

Injective (INJ)

  • Despite saying he generally disliked the token, the speaker saw a relatively constructive chart. He considered the outlook bullish while INJ remained above about $6.41.
  • He cited $9–$10 as a possible higher-time-frame target if the trend held.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s chart view was bullish above $6.41, with $9–$10 as a possible upside area. He also warned that INJ could weaken if Bitcoin did.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • The speaker said LINK had been a long-term underperformer and was not one he personally wanted to buy.
  • He identified about $12 as a level below which the daily trend would weaken, and roughly $10.50 as a more significant risk level. He also noted that a pullback toward $10.80–$11.70 could occur without being unusual.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was selective and cautious, even though the chart could remain technically constructive above key levels. His view was that LINK’s potential performance might lag stronger alternatives, and that a Bitcoin downturn could weigh on it.

XRP (XRP)

  • The speaker described XRP as bearish in the short term and identified $1.25 as a key support level. A break below it could open the way toward $1.10, possibly $1.05.
  • A move back above roughly $1.42 would be a positive short-term signal in his view. He also said he would not get highly bearish unless the $1.25 level failed.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautious, with $1.25 as the main line to watch. A break could lead to further downside; a recovery above $1.42 would improve the short-term setup.

Quant (QNT) — cryptocurrency

  • The speaker described QNT as a long-standing crypto asset and expected a possible bounce, while seeing the broader short-term setup as a range.
  • He identified $195 as an important lower boundary: a daily close below it could point toward $150–$155. He saw $270 as a level that would need to be reclaimed to strengthen the upside case.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term view was range-bound and cautious: monitor $195 on the downside and $270 on the upside. A break below the lower level was his stated trigger for a more substantial decline.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker said ZEC had reached a previously identified correction area around $10.50–$11.50 and expected it might try to form a low.
  • He remained cautious in the short term: the four-hour chart looked bearish, while a recovery above approximately $1,340 was cited as a sign the low might be in. He viewed a daily, and preferably weekly, close below about $1,050 as a more serious warning.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible bounce after the correction, but not a confirmed reversal. He wanted to see a recovery above $1,340 or a breakdown below $1,050 to clarify the next direction.

SOX and SOXS

  • The speaker discussed the SOX semiconductor index and SOXS, the inverse semiconductor ETF. He saw potential for SOX to fall toward $11,000, with a possible bounce in the $10,500–$11,000 area.
  • If SOX fell further, he thought SOXS might rise toward $45, but cautioned against assuming a precise one-to-one relationship between the index and the ETF.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view leaned toward additional near-term weakness in SOX, with a possible corresponding bounce in SOXS. The transcript itself cautioned that the relationship is not one-to-one, so the stated levels should not be treated as an exact hedge.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The speaker had a bearish view, citing a lower high and the possibility of a test near $58. A bounce from there would not, in his view, establish a reversal unless the stock recovered above about $70.25.
  • If weakness continued, he mentioned $47–$50 as a possible lower area. His longer-term opinion was that the stock could remain under pressure for several months.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible bounce near $58, but treated recovery above $70.25 as more meaningful evidence of strength. His stated bias was that further downside was more likely than an immediate reversal.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The speaker viewed HOOD as vulnerable to a correction after what he described as a range high. He identified $100 as a near-term level and $90 as another potential support area.
  • He also discussed a possible broader range extending toward $75. He did not describe the longer-term chart as broken, but expected the correction could take several months.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was near- and medium-term cautious, while not ruling out a constructive longer-term trend. He highlighted $100, $90, and potentially $75 as areas to monitor.

Circle (CRCL)

  • The speaker said CRCL had failed to confirm an uptrend and showed bearish signals. He identified a weekly close above $109.50 as a level that would have supported a stronger bullish case; the stock instead turned lower.
  • He discussed possible downside toward the low $70s, and potentially the $60 area. He said he was interested in the company for the long term but did not consider the chart’s uptrend confirmed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s chart view was bearish until the stock showed renewed strength. He emphasized waiting for confirmation rather than trying to anticipate a reversal; $98 and $109.50 were cited as important levels in that assessment.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • The speaker saw bearish momentum signals and expected a correction toward $130–$135. He said a move below about $125 would make the setup significantly worse.
  • He warned that MSTR could fall more sharply than Bitcoin if Bitcoin weakened.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term bias was bearish, with $130–$135 as a potential correction area and $125 as a more serious downside threshold. He viewed MSTR as more exposed than Bitcoin to a market decline.

Nasdaq

  • The speaker expected further short-term weakness, with a possible move toward $30,000 and, if that level failed, around $29,500.
  • He said the broader outlook remained acceptable while the index held above roughly $29,500, or more conservatively $28,800. A break below the latter would, in his view, raise the risk of a much larger correction.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was short-term cautious but not yet broadly bearish. He identified $29,500 and $28,800 as important downside levels.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker said NEAR was holding up better than many other crypto assets. He saw bearish signals developing and a possible daily correction toward $4.
  • He considered a move below $4 more concerning, but did not characterize the setup as severely bearish while NEAR remained above that level.

Takeaways

  • The view was relatively constructive compared with other altcoins, but with a possible near-term pullback. The speaker’s main level to watch was $4.

Quantinuum / “QNT” stock (identity unclear)

  • The transcript refers to this as “QNT the stock” and “Quantinium,” but does not clearly identify a publicly traded company or ticker.
  • The speaker described the chart as extremely weak, said a bounce might occur, and characterized the broader trend as a severe downtrend. He did not present a clear bullish setup.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was strongly bearish, but the asset’s identity is unclear from the transcript. Confirm the company and ticker before relying on any chart levels or analysis.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The speaker said PUMP had given back much of its earlier gains and was responding to bearish signals. He saw a possible bounce around $0.0045, but said a failure there could lead toward roughly $0.0035.
  • He viewed it as relatively more interesting than many older tokens, but still described it as a speculative crypto asset.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible short-term bounce, not a confirmed reversal. The levels he highlighted were approximately $0.0045 and $0.0035.

Cardano (ADA)

  • The speaker was bearish, citing weak relative performance and bearish momentum signals. He said a weekly close below roughly $0.227 could point toward $0.17–$0.18.
  • He was skeptical that the prospect of an ETF would support the price without actual demand, noting that many crypto-related ETFs had not performed well in his view.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish unless ADA recovered meaningfully. He regarded a weekly close below about $0.227 as a potential downside trigger and cautioned that ETF headlines alone do not establish demand.

Gold and Bitcoin/Gold Ratio

  • The speaker said he was bearish on gold over the longer term and considered Bitcoin a better hold over the next few years.
  • In the short term, however, he was uncertain about the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and did not rule out further movement in gold’s favor. He mentioned 18.5 as a possible area of interest if the ratio pulled back, but was not confident it would reach that level.

Takeaways

  • The speaker favored Bitcoin over gold over a multi-year horizon, but his short-term view on the ratio was less certain. The 18.5 level was conditional, not a firm forecast.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana was mentioned in the context of a Canadian-listed ETF. The speaker’s point was that an ETF listing does not by itself prove investor demand.
  • He described the chart as weak and said it could fall toward roughly $7.50–$7.60, while identifying around $7 as another possible bounce area. He did not expect a major move either up or down in the near term.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was cautious on SOL, and argued that ETF availability alone was not a bullish signal. The levels he discussed were potential support areas, not assurances of a rebound.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

  • The speaker criticized buying CIFR while it was falling and said he would not treat a possible bounce as proof of a reversal.
  • He identified $9.70 as a possible lower support area and roughly $7.75 as a more significant potential bounce zone. He suggested that a recovery toward $11–$12 might provide an opportunity to exit, rather than assuming the downtrend had ended.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was strongly bearish and warned against trying to catch a falling stock. His stated preference was to reduce risk rather than rely on a bounce to rescue the position.

Ondo (ONDO)

  • The speaker said ONDO might produce a short-term bounce, with roughly $0.41–$0.415 as a potential support area.
  • He described its longer-term chart as weak and said a break below that area could open the way toward $0.30–$0.32. He also noted that many older crypto tokens had underperformed newer ones.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw possible near-term support but a weak longer-term trend. He cautioned that any bounce could still be temporary.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker compared HYPE with ZEC and said he would prefer HYPE over the short-to-medium term, but ZEC over a longer horizon.
  • He said HYPE could be trying to form a low, with about $75.25 a key downside level. Falling below it would make him expect a much more severe decline.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s relative preference was HYPE in the nearer term and ZEC over the longer term. He treated $75.25 as an important level for HYPE’s short-term outlook.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • The speaker expected a correction toward approximately $166–$170, where he thought the stock might bounce. He also said that bounce might fail and that a further move toward roughly $140 was possible.
  • A recovery above around $225 was described as a stronger sign that the decline might be ending.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish near term, while identifying $166–$170 as a possible bounce area. He wanted to see stronger recovery before treating a bounce as a reversal.

DRAM ETF (ticker unclear)

  • The speaker described the fund as bearish and cited $63.82 as the level it would need to reclaim to improve the outlook.
  • If it remained below that level, he saw a possible move toward $44.50–$47.50. He also noted that a short-term bounce could occur without changing the broader bearish view.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish below $63.82. The transcript does not clearly identify the ETF’s ticker, so verify the fund before using the levels.

IonQ (IONQ)

  • The speaker expected potential downside toward $27–$27.25, followed by a possible bounce.
  • He said a recovery above $48 would be a more convincing positive signal; until then, he regarded the outlook as weak.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected further downside before a possible bounce and did not consider a bounce alone a reversal. He highlighted $27–$27.25 and $48 as levels to watch.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The speaker described META as being near its highs but likely to consolidate or pull back before another attempt higher.
  • He mentioned $680–$690 as a possible area for a higher low and said the broader trend still looked positive. A shorter-term pullback toward $715–$720 was also discussed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was constructive longer term but cautious in the short term. He expected a pullback to be possible without necessarily breaking the broader trend.

One Stop Systems (OSS)

  • The speaker said OSS was in a steep decline but noted that its monthly trend would technically remain intact above about $6.90.
  • He identified roughly $5.75–$5.80 as a possible bounce area, while expressing doubt that the broader advance would hold.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s assessment was cautious despite the technical level at $6.90. He saw a potential bounce zone around $5.75–$5.80, but did not treat it as proof of a lasting recovery.

Entegris (ENTG)

  • The speaker saw the longer-term trend as positive but expected a short-term pullback, potentially toward $140–$145 or around $131.
  • He said the recent higher lows kept the broader setup constructive in his view.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bullish on the broader trend but expected near-term volatility. The levels mentioned were potential pullback areas, not guaranteed support.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The speaker remained cautious and said the stock’s failure to hold above the previous month’s low was not a good sign.
  • A weekly close at or below the levels shown in the discussion could, in his view, lead toward $19–$18.50.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term stance was bearish, with $19–$18.50 as a possible downside area if weakness continued.

Coherent (COHR)

  • The speaker said COHR had been stopped out and described the broader market as weak. The transcript did not include a detailed COHR chart analysis or specific price levels.

Takeaways

  • No distinct COHR outlook or price target was provided; the mention mainly reflected the speaker’s experience of being stopped out during a weak market.

Sandisk (SNDK)

  • The speaker agreed that $1,000–$1,100 could be an area for a potential bounce.
  • He cautioned that if the stock failed to bounce there, substantial further downside could follow, but did not specify a further target.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was conditional: watch whether the stock can find support near $1,000–$1,100. A bounce was possible, but not assured.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The speaker described AMZN’s broader trend as intact while it remained above about $225.
  • He said a near-term pullback toward $230–$240 would not necessarily be concerning. A move below $225 could, in his view, lead to a larger correction toward roughly $190.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was constructive above $225, while allowing for a near-term pullback. He viewed a break below $225 as a more serious warning.

Alphabet (GOOG)

  • The speaker said Alphabet’s broader trend could remain intact if it held above approximately $315. He also discussed a possible pullback toward $320.
  • A break below $315 could, in his view, lead to a deeper correction toward roughly $290.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously constructive above $315. He identified that level as important to whether the broader uptrend remained intact.

Capcom (9697, Japan-listed)

  • The speaker described Capcom’s move as strong but expected a pullback before another possible attempt higher.
  • He mentioned around ¥4,000 as a possible pullback area and viewed the longer-term trend as bullish.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bullish longer term but expected consolidation first. The discussion’s main potential pullback area was around ¥4,000.

Ori (crypto; ticker unclear)

  • The speaker challenged the claim that Ori was a “store of value,” pointing to its large price decline and a sharp increase in reported trading volume that he suspected might reflect promotional activity.
  • He said the token traded on a limited set of exchanges and expressed skepticism about its investment case. He acknowledged that it could rise, but did not endorse it.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was strongly skeptical and questioned whether Ori’s price history and trading activity supported the “store of value” claim. The transcript does not clearly establish a ticker, and the speaker offered no price target.

FAT token (identity unclear)

  • The transcript ends with a request about what sounds like “FAT,” but the asset name and ticker are not clear. The speaker mentioned a possible short-term bounce near $0.19 and said a daily close below that level could lead toward roughly $0.15.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious and conditional: a bounce was possible, but a close below approximately $0.19 could indicate further downside. Verify the asset’s identity before relying on these levels.

Broad Crypto Themes

  • The speaker repeatedly said that Bitcoin weakness could weigh on altcoins, and that many tokens were underperforming or showing weaker charts than Bitcoin.
  • He was skeptical of ETF announcements as a standalone catalyst, arguing that an ETF does not guarantee investor demand or a rising price.
  • He favored waiting for a confirmed trend over trying to predict bottoms, and warned that buying a falling asset based only on a hoped-for bounce could lead to poor outcomes.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored selectivity and confirmation over chasing headlines or trying to catch falling assets. The speaker’s recurring approach was to distinguish a temporary bounce from a confirmed trend change and to pay attention to relative performance.
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Video Description
CPI printed hot and Bitcoin sold the print hour (-0.88%); the daily corrective setup is on its way to the 55 line at $79,695, 2.4% below spot. Inside: what the 23 prior red CPI print hours did next, the 55's touch table (82% inside 10 days, median day 4 = Friday), the 10-day signal that still prints Friday, golden cross day 36, and Kalshi's Fed repricing (a hike 36c). 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME until noon PT Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - which goes to $1,497 tomorrow) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, corrective setups and medians, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. #Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Kalshi CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: a short-term correction, the long-term picture intact 1:13 Rate hikes? Kalshi still prices a hold; PPI tomorrow 1:39 Nobody has an edge on the Fed 2:32 Not failing: Bitcoin finishes October higher 3:25 'A 20% drop'? Stats, probabilities and variance 4:19 Below the May high: the trending higher low still holds 4:51 The quarterly: hard to see under $75,000 this quarter 5:33 The target: the daily 55 EMA near $79,800 6:16 The daily higher low at $75,000 6:55 The 2-week reconnect: a little below $80,000 7:33 The 10-day stochastic: 79% green a month later 8:41 What would undo the 10-day signal 9:07 CPI: a quick study, 43% vs 57%, no edge 10:44 Kalshi: the Fed hold repriced from 80c to 67c 11:50 Kalshi: $50 in volume, up to $500 credit 12:02 Midterms on Kalshi 12:33 Kalshi: $87,500 repriced to 41c; another $20; $90,000 at 25c 13:26 Golden cross: inching toward day 40 14:37 Mean reversion on the roadmap 15:19 Why the median and the average matter 16:09 After the 55 test: 70% green the next day 16:44 The 5-day reconnect: +7.5% in ten days, back to the highs 17:59 What is the commotion about? 18:37 Hex, PulseChain and paid shill campaigns 21:18 A $35 corrective target and a monthly breakdown 22:56 Weekly down for longer: a good entry? 23:25 The Daily Hundred: the DCA on Coinbase 24:01 NEXT: $160 or $178 by Friday? 25:26 Everyone gets bearish when it stops going straight up 27:17 INJ daily and weekly 29:29 LINK weekly: where is a good entry? 32:24 Super chats 33:28 XRP daily 36:15 A 4-hour, daily and weekly look 37:50 ZEC daily and weekly 40:40 SOXS: $11,000 and $45 42:37 RKLB: still bearish 44:07 HOOD daily 46:26 Not great on the monthly 48:33 MicroStrategy weekly: the 9 MA cross? 50:48 NASDAQ daily 52:27 NEAR daily and weekly 54:01 PUMP daily 54:19 The October sale: lifetime before Nov 1, code LIFETIME 55:51 PUMP: the corrective target met 59:08 Gold vs Bitcoin: weekly and monthly bounce areas 1:01:20 SOLB on the TSX 1:02:43 CIFR from $10 1:06:40 Already at the daily corrective target 1:09:23 HYPE daily and weekly: the better long-term hold? 1:13:15 GD 1:14:47 QNT the stock 1:17:04 IREN daily and weekly: $34.50 and the macro breakdown 1:18:04 Richard Heart arrested 1:19:37 ORE vs the dollar 1:22:15 Super chats as shilling campaigns 1:23:10 SNDK 1:23:56 IONQ 1:25:40 META daily and weekly 1:26:55 OSS 1:29:41 Capcom on the Japan exchange 1:30:48 Amazon weekly and monthly 1:32:46 Google: help me cope 1:36:04 Markets want to pull back; bullish by the end of next week 1:36:32 Hawaii taxes 1:40:32 Nine years of YouTube: people do not want your opinion 1:43:47 Africa, the Gulf and Asia 1:46:15 Dubai: the good and the bad 1:49:59 Bitcoin vs gold 1:51:12 The 1978 World War II documentary 1:53:38 Ending on that note 1:54:22 Chris Vela's last chart 1:55:05 Sign-off
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...