Bitcoin Live: The Correction Has a Target
Bitcoin Live: The Correction Has a Target
1 day ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 55 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Watch Bitcoin for a conditional entry near $79,600–$80,350; the outlook weakens below $75,000, where $67,000–$70,000 becomes a risk area.
  • Ethereum may pull back toward $2,450; treat $2,350 as a key support level and reassess if it breaks.
  • ZIM has one of the stronger longer-term setups in the discussion, with conditional targets of $35–$40 by year-end and $45–$50 within six months.
  • For TAO, consider a support-based setup only near $2.65–$2.70, with a clear risk limit around $2.50; below that, the outlook deteriorates sharply.
  • Avoid treating speculative options or prediction-market contracts as dependable trades; the discussed levels are technical scenarios, not guarantees.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host expects Bitcoin to remain corrective for roughly the next week to 10 days, with a possible retest of about $79,600–$80,350. He expects a bounce from that area, rather than treating the pullback as a change in the broader trend.
  • He sees the outlook as constructive on higher time frames while Bitcoin remains above $75,000. A drop below that level could bring a deeper correction toward $67,000–$70,000; he identifies $62,000 as a more important higher-time-frame low.
  • If the anticipated bounce develops, he cited $83,500–$84,000 as a possible near-term recovery area and about $88,000–$89,000 as a later target. He also said Bitcoin could reach $90,000 near the end of October and be above $90,000 by mid-to-late November, with $100,000 possible but not assured.
  • His longer-term bullish view is based partly on historical returns following a Bitcoin “Golden Cross” and other chart indicators. He emphasized that these are historical patterns, not guarantees.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s proposed plan is conditional: watch for a pullback toward $80,000 and the market’s response there, rather than assuming an uninterrupted rally.
  • The host’s bullish view weakens if Bitcoin loses $75,000; a move below that level would make the $67,000–$70,000 area relevant.
  • Treat the cited historical averages and targets as the host’s technical outlook, not as certain forecasts.

Bitcoin Options and Event Contracts

  • In response to a question about selling September 2027 at-the-money puts, the host argued that this is inefficient if the goal is to collect premium decay. He said the position could tie up substantial margin for a long time, while much of the decay generally occurs closer to expiration.
  • He described roughly 10–14 days to expiration as a preferred window for rapid premium decay, and said premium-selling positions in his experience are usually kept to a few weeks or less. He also warned that rising volatility can make short options more expensive, even if Bitcoin’s price rises.
  • The host described prediction-market contracts on Bitcoin prices—including contracts tied to $87,500, $90,000, $130,000, $150,000, and $200,000—as speculative. He called some of these markets gambling and said his own bets were small.

Takeaways

  • A very long-dated short option may lock up capital without delivering much near-term premium decay; understand the margin and volatility exposure before considering such a trade.
  • The prediction-market discussion was explicitly framed as speculative, not as a dependable investment strategy. The host did not present the contract prices as price targets.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host said Ethereum has shown relative strength but still may have short-term downside, with about $2,450 as a possible test area.
  • He identified $2,350 as an important daily-level threshold and about $2,330 on a weekly closing basis. A break below those levels would make the outlook more concerning.
  • He said the chart would remain constructive if it holds support and continues consolidating above prior highs, but acknowledged the possibility of further short-term weakness.

Takeaways

  • The host’s outlook is cautiously constructive while Ethereum holds the cited support levels, but he expects a possible near-term pullback.
  • Watch the response around $2,350–$2,450; the transcript does not support treating a bounce there as certain.

Tether Dominance

  • The host views Tether dominance as a market indicator that often moves opposite to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
  • He expects Tether dominance to rise in the short term, which he said could put pressure on crypto prices. Longer term, he suggested it could decline toward the mid-5% range this quarter, with a possible move below 4% in a more pronounced decline.

Takeaways

  • Rising Tether dominance is a potential warning sign for near-term crypto weakness in the host’s framework, but it is a broad market measure rather than a direct signal for any one token.
  • The host suggested focusing on the individual crypto being considered rather than relying on dominance charts alone.

Gold

  • The host remains bearish overall on gold, but said a short-term bounce could occur around $4,050–$4,000.
  • He cited the biweekly 55 EMA, then near $3,809, as a longer-term corrective target that could be reached over several weeks.
  • He said the timing and size of any bounce are uncertain and expected further downside over the longer term.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was bearish overall, while allowing for a temporary bounce near $4,000.
  • The $3,809 area was presented as a possible longer-term chart target, not a guaranteed destination.

Near Protocol (NEAR; called “NIR” in the transcript)

  • The host said NEAR may pull back toward about $4.92, citing short-term bearish divergence.
  • He said he would become more bearish if it fell below $4. He also mentioned about $7 as a possible year-end level if the broader setup holds.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view is corrective, with $4.92 as a potential support area and $4 as a more consequential downside threshold.
  • The $7 level is conditional and should not be read as a firm forecast.

Venice Token (VVV)

  • The host expects a short-term pullback, with about $5 as an area to watch and $4.32 as a prior low. He said he would be more concerned below $4.
  • He mentioned about $7 as a possible year-end level, while describing the token as likely to spend time consolidating in the nearer term.

Takeaways

  • The transcript supports a cautious short-term stance, with the host looking for a pullback before any further advance.
  • $4 was the stated level that would make the host more bearish.

KEL (ticker as stated in the transcript)

  • The host expects short-term downside, with about $2.81 as a possible test and $2.75–$3.00 as an area where he would look for a bounce.
  • He said the outlook would improve if KEL reclaimed about $4.23. A weekly close below about $2.96 would weaken the setup, while further downside toward $2.50 remained possible.

Takeaways

  • The host sees a potential support-and-bounce setup around $2.75–$3.00, but emphasized that the chart was showing downside pressure.
  • A reclaim of $4.23 would be a stronger sign of improvement; a failure to hold the cited support levels would make the outlook less favorable.

TAO

  • The host said TAO could pull back toward $2.65–$2.70. He considered a long entry in that area understandable only with an invalidation around $2.50.
  • He said reclaiming about $3.10 would improve the setup. If it fell below $2.50, he expected a much deeper decline, potentially toward the low $2 range.

Takeaways

  • The host described a conditional support-based setup, not an unconditional buy recommendation.
  • The proposed idea depended on a bounce near $2.65–$2.70 and a clear risk limit around $2.50.

Cash Cat

  • The host described Cash Cat as very new and said it could still have large moves, but expected a potential pullback toward $0.06–$0.07.
  • On the shorter time frame, he said a bounce was possible, but he viewed the token as bearish below $0.1325. He cited $0.115–$0.12 as a possible short-term bounce area.

Takeaways

  • The host’s chart view was cautious: possible short-term bounce, but a broader pullback toward $0.06–$0.07 remained in view.
  • The transcript provided no fundamental case for the token; the discussion was based on price action.

Pawns (name as stated in the transcript)

  • The host characterized Pawns as being in a strong downtrend. He said a short-term bounce was possible, but described the broader direction as downward.
  • He cited $0.38 as a level that would be more constructive on a four-hour close, and $0.70 as a more significant level for changing the daily outlook. He also mentioned a possible bounce around $0.50–$0.55.

Takeaways

  • The host’s overall view was bearish, despite the possibility of a temporary bounce.
  • The transcript does not clearly identify the token’s ticker, so confirm the asset before using any of the cited levels.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The host expects a correction toward $95–$100 after Robinhood rejected the top of its cited trading range near $124.
  • He described the longer-term range as roughly $63–$124 and said he would reassess after a test of the middle of that range.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view is corrective, with $95–$100 as the area to watch.
  • The discussion did not include a specific longer-term price target beyond the stated range.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The host expects a short-term correction toward $215–$216, citing bearish divergence and a need to reconnect with a moving average. He said about $199 could be a further downside area.
  • He did not call a long-term top, but said he would not buy at the discussed levels. He described $150–$170 as a potentially attractive long-term area if a much larger correction occurred.
  • In a comparison with Bitcoin, he said he expected Bitcoin to gain some ground in the short-to-medium term, but thought NVIDIA could outperform Bitcoin over the longer term.

Takeaways

  • The host’s chart view was short-term cautious but not definitively bearish over the long term.
  • The $150–$170 area was a hypothetical long-term valuation zone mentioned by the host, not a near-term target.

Semiconductor Inverse ETF (SOXS, as referenced)

  • The host discussed a semiconductor-related ETF position and said the underlying semiconductor index could decline toward about 11.9 before potentially producing a local high in the inverse ETF around $42.
  • The transcript’s ticker references and price levels are not entirely clear, so the precise instrument should be verified before relying on those numbers.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was conditional on a further decline in semiconductor stocks.
  • Confirm the exact ETF and chart before treating the cited levels as actionable.

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)

  • A viewer asked about selling calls against 1,000 IBIT shares, including five $50 calls expiring October 30. The host said the position was defensible if the investor wanted to keep the shares and generate some premium, but he was not taking the trade himself.
  • He cautioned that covered calls do not meaningfully protect against a large decline in the shares; they provide only limited premium offset and cap gains above the strike.

Takeaways

  • Covered calls may suit an investor seeking income while holding shares, but they can limit upside and offer only limited downside protection.
  • The host said he would not use this strategy as a substitute for a protective put or an exit plan.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The host said BMNR could test about $23.25 and potentially form a higher low there. A break below $22.20 would make him more bearish, with a possible decline toward $18.
  • He expressed limited confidence in the company and said he would prefer direct exposure to Ethereum if the goal were to invest in ETH.

Takeaways

  • The host’s chart view was conditional: $23.25 was a possible support area, while $22.20 was a key downside threshold.
  • The transcript distinguished BMNR shares from holding ETH directly; the host preferred the latter for Ethereum exposure.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The host expects a short-term decline toward $63.50–$64, with a possible further test of $60–$61.
  • He said a bounce that fails below $71 would be a weak sign; reclaiming $78.25 would improve the picture.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term outlook was bearish, with the cited support areas below the current price.
  • He suggested judging any bounce by whether it can reclaim the stated resistance levels.

Unusual Machines (UMAC)

  • The host expects short- to medium-term downside toward about $18, but described the longer-term chart as less unfavorable.
  • He said the stock could fall toward $16 without necessarily damaging the longer-term chart.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was cautious, with $18 and then $16 as levels to watch.
  • He did not identify a confirmed reversal.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM)

  • The host described the monthly and quarterly charts as constructive, with a possible move toward $35–$40 by year-end and $45–$50 within six months.
  • He said the chart had the ingredients for a longer-term uptrend, while noting that those targets depended on the setup continuing to hold.

Takeaways

  • ZIM received one of the more bullish longer-term views in the transcript.
  • The cited price ranges were conditional chart expectations, not guarantees.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

  • The host expects a bounce, with $335–$338 as a possible area. If the stock reclaims the prior-quarter high near $372, he said it could move toward about $420.
  • He warned that a later lower high could leave the longer-term chart vulnerable.

Takeaways

  • The host sees a possible near-term bounce, but the stronger bullish signal would be a reclaim of $372.
  • The transcript did not establish that the stock had already reversed its broader trend.

Twist Bioscience (TWST)

  • The host expects a short-term decline toward $124–$125, while saying that about $100 was possible if weakness continued.
  • He said the longer-term chart had run sharply higher and that the next major correction could be substantial.

Takeaways

  • The host’s outlook was corrective, with $124–$125 as the first area to watch.
  • He did not present the cited levels as a buy recommendation.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

  • The host said Dell was showing signs of a potential top, including bearish divergence, but noted that the stock could continue higher for another one to two months before a larger decline.
  • He floated $400–$500 as a possible area for a later low after a correction.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was that a major correction could be approaching, but not necessarily immediately.
  • The $400–$500 area was a broad, longer-term estimate rather than a precise target.

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR)

  • The host described FIGR as being in a downtrend, with a possible short-term bounce toward $30–$31 and a test of $25.
  • He said the outlook remained bearish below $40.

Takeaways

  • The host’s analysis favored caution: a bounce would not, by itself, change the downtrend.
  • $40 was the stated level that would improve the chart.

USA Rare Earth (USAR)

  • The host said USAR was declining and could see a temporary bounce near $11.72.
  • He identified $19.50–$20 as a level it would need to regain to improve the outlook. A break below $11.72 could bring the stock below $10.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was bearish overall, while allowing for a possible short-lived bounce near $11.72.
  • The discussion did not identify a confirmed bottom.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

  • The host expected further downside, with $10–$10.50 as a possible area before a larger bounce.
  • He mentioned a possible short-term bounce near a moving-average level, but said the monthly, bi-monthly, and quarterly charts did not indicate that a low was already in.

Takeaways

  • The host did not favor treating CIFR as a confirmed swing-trade bottom.
  • The $10–$10.50 area was a possible future support zone, not a buy recommendation.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)

  • A viewer described a trade entered at $61, with an initial target of $70 already reached and a further target of $80. The viewer cited a weekly-close invalidation below $55.
  • The host said he would consider tightening risk closer to the entry—around $61—and taking some profit, citing bearish signals and the possibility of a pullback toward $65–$66.

Takeaways

  • This was a discussion of a viewer’s existing trade, not a fresh recommendation.
  • The host’s main risk-management point was to consider protecting gains and not let a profitable trade turn into a loss.

JFrog (FROG)

  • The host said the stock could decline toward $87 if it closed below $95 on a daily basis.
  • He described the outlook as more constructive if it held above $95.

Takeaways

  • $95 was the key level in the host’s analysis: a daily close below it would point to additional downside.
  • The $87 area was a conditional target, not a guaranteed outcome.

Clover Health Investments (CLOV)

  • The host said a short-term move toward $5.20–$5.50 was possible.
  • He viewed the chart as more constructive if it held monthly closes above about $4; he cited $9–$10 as a possible upside area if the reversal setup worked.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was cautiously constructive above $4, but he emphasized that the broader reversal was not guaranteed.
  • The cited upside depended on the stock maintaining the stated support.

Meteora (MET)

  • The host expects a short-term correction toward $0.35, with $0.29 possible if the decline deepens.
  • He noted that $0.35 also aligned with a weekly moving-average level where he would expect a bounce if the token remained constructive.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was corrective, with $0.35 as the first area to watch.
  • A bounce at that level would need to materialize to support the more constructive scenario.

Solana (SOL)

  • The host described Solana as weaker than Bitcoin and Ethereum and expected a possible test of $105–$106, with about $99 as a further support area.
  • He said the chart would not look stronger until it reclaimed $122.25.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was cautious: Solana could rebound, but remained comparatively weak in his analysis.
  • $99 and $122.25 were the more important downside and recovery levels cited.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Relative to Bitcoin

  • The host said HYPE had outperformed Bitcoin overall, but expected it to give back some relative strength in the short to medium term.
  • The transcript did not provide a clear numerical level for the HYPE/BTC ratio.

Takeaways

  • The host’s relative-value view was short-term cautious on HYPE versus Bitcoin.
  • No specific price target was given, so the discussion does not support a precise trade level.

Immunome (IMNM)

  • The host expects a possible pullback toward $18.25 and said the stock could bounce there if the broader setup holds.
  • A break below $17.83 would make him more bearish, with about $13 as a possible lower area. He described the longer-term setup as potentially constructive if support holds.

Takeaways

  • The host saw a possible higher-low setup, but only if the stock holds the cited support.
  • $17.83 was the key level separating that scenario from a more bearish one.

Zeta Global (ZETA)

  • The host said ZETA was holding up but might spend time consolidating and could see a roughly 10% pullback.
  • He considered it bullish above about $28, while cautioning that a quick move to new highs was not his base case.

Takeaways

  • The host’s longer-term view was positive above $28, but he expected consolidation rather than immediate continuation.
  • No specific upside price target was provided.

Broadcom (AVGO)

  • The host expects a pullback toward $320–$325 and said the stock could bounce there if the longer-term trend remains intact.
  • A break below about $290 would make him look for a deeper decline toward $230. He also noted bearish divergence on the monthly chart.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term view was corrective, with $320–$325 as the first area to watch.
  • $290 was the key level that could indicate a more serious decline.

AMC Entertainment (AMC)

  • The host said AMC’s chart would be bullish above $2.36, with about $4 as a possible upside area.
  • He cautioned that he finds this type of stock difficult to trust over the long term because rallies have often failed.

Takeaways

  • The host’s positive scenario depended on AMC holding $2.36.
  • He framed $4 as a chart-based possibility, while remaining skeptical of the longer-term reliability of the move.

Datadog (DDOG)

  • The host expects a correction toward about $275, citing bearish divergence.
  • He did not describe the move as a confirmed long-term reversal.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was short-term corrective, with $275 as the level to watch.
  • The transcript provided no longer-term target.

Orca (ORCA)

  • The host expects a possible decline toward $1.80–$1.90, while noting that it could rise if Bitcoin rallies.
  • He described the token as a previous-cycle asset with a weak long-term chart.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was cautious to bearish, with the cited support area dependent on the broader crypto market.
  • A Bitcoin rally alone was not presented as proof of a lasting reversal in ORCA.
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Video Description
Bitcoin's daily corrective setup fires on any close under $82,692 tonight, and the daily 55 at $79,489 is its target: 82% touched it inside 10 days. The 2-week 5 EMA sits $345 from that same line, and 59% of its 39 disconnects since 2012 reconnected inside the next bar; also inside: the overbought weekly voided by its own rule, golden cross day 34, CPI Wednesday with the odds, and the Kalshi board. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME until noon PT Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, corrective setups and medians, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #Kalshi CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: a corrective week, then the turn late next week 0:32 CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, the Fed in two weeks 0:57 Good mornings 1:21 Remembering Giles 2:23 Selling long-dated puts: the premium-decay lesson 6:19 Catching up with chat; the soundboard 8:03 The daily corrective setup fires on a close under $82,700 9:01 The target: the 55 EMA at $79,600, 82% inside 10 days 10:35 After the 55 is tested: 1, 5, 10 and 20 days out 12:12 The 2-week 5 EMA disconnect: the reconnect near $80,000 13:38 Trending higher lows: why a close under the May high is not bearish 16:18 The weekly close, $75,000, and the 200-day 18:08 After the 2-week reconnect: 4 and 6 bars out, $90,000 by late October 20:02 Golden cross day 34: day 40 is the step 21:37 Revin Ribbons: the 2-week neutral zone, $88,000 next 22:31 Daily ribbons: $81,900, then $80,350 23:46 The October sale: lifetime before Nov 1, code LIFETIME 25:05 Kalshi: $87,500 at 48c, a $40 position, $90,000 25:54 The monthly mid-band reclaim: $91,600, then upper band one 27:53 Kalshi: $50 in volume, up to $500 credit 28:39 The 15-minute markets are a gamble 30:00 When will Bitcoin cross $130,000? 31:25 Super chats begin 31:37 Coinbase: Bitcoin options coming in November; the Daily Hundred 32:37 NEAR 34:58 The range video 35:26 Short gold at $4,200? 37:42 VVV 38:44 'You promised 1 million' 40:22 Tether dominance 41:54 KEEL 44:07 CASHCAT 45:29 PONS 47:39 Luffy's chart 50:39 Leverage vs altcoin volatility: the question 53:56 HOOD daily 54:49 Steven Shickman's chart 59:12 Covered calls at the $50 strike: the lesson 1:01:14 Chris Vela's chart 1:02:50 BMNR 1:05:05 RKLB 1:06:30 UMAC 1:07:03 ZIM 1:08:29 DPZ long-term 1:10:55 Bitcoin vs Nvidia 1:12:33 Is Bitcoin going to zero today? 1:12:46 TWST 1:13:45 'Sell everything' 1:18:01 Ben's chair 1:18:17 FIGR 1:19:38 USAR to zero? 1:24:05 Ethereum 1:26:06 'Who are you getting mad at?' 1:28:02 DJ Z's chart, average $2.20 1:29:19 Crypto Rect's chart 1:30:32 MTE 1:31:50 TSM 1:33:14 HPE 1:35:33 Frog coins on NASDAQ 1:38:51 HYPE vs BTC 1:39:59 IMNM 1:41:16 ZETA 1:42:52 AVGO 1:45:02 Protecting a stock you own: covered calls vs puts 1:46:59 DDOG to $275? 1:51:18 ORCA 1:52:20 AMC 1:54:12 BASE, the last one 1:54:57 Sign-off
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...