Question of the day: is the correction over? Bitcoin is back over last week's high, the daily 5 EMA re-crosses the 21 on a close over $83,358 tonight, and the 5-day silver cross prints Thursday over $83,625.
Inside: the golden cross roadmap at day 43, a new study on how often the low held after a reclaim like this one (winners and losers split), the 5-day silver cross, the 10-day reconnect clock (Oct 27), the S&P into year-end, and Kalshi's Fed and October lines.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #Live #CryptoTrading
CHAPTERS
0:00 Countdown: live in ten minutes
10:07 We are live: Bitcoin back near $85,000
10:19 The setups are lining up: mid-November is the collision
10:56 Stats and probabilities, not guarantees
11:09 Things will fall apart at some point: the honest note
11:44 Greetings and chat
14:20 Kalshi: the $87,500 October line repriced from 25c to 53c
15:25 Kalshi: $92,500 and $95,000 are not in the data
16:21 Kalshi: the sub-$75,000 contract collapsed to 8c
17:05 Kalshi: trade $50, up to $500 in credit
18:08 The lower timeframes: hidden bullish divergence on the 2-day
18:47 The reclaim line: $84,378 (index $84,283, CME $84,500)
19:07 IBIT: a bullish engulfing candle and the BBWP squeeze
19:38 Last week's low, $79,700: the line in the sand
20:11 RSI at 50: the counter move
21:20 Revin Ribbons: the mid band at $83,900, then $87,000
22:16 The stochastics: daily, 2-day and 3-day pivots
23:02 The golden cross roadmap: day 43
23:34 +20.5% median vs +7.5% realized: the gap to $93,000-94,000
25:10 The 10-day reconnect: 62% green, +4.8% since 2018
26:00 Higher into mid-November: the models are unbroken
26:55 Who this content is for
27:21 Kalshi: the link
27:34 The Daily Hundred · Day 64
27:59 Coinbase: stock options now, Bitcoin options next month
28:15 Gold: bearish into month-end
29:02 Silver: the monthly 55 EMA bounce zone
31:26 CIFR: not a macro bottom yet
32:52 Ethereum: the trending higher low
33:36 TA 101: the trending higher low, free
34:50 Defensive in Q4 after the next leg
35:19 Weekly: consolidation at the highs
37:05 Monthly higher low with hidden bullish divergence
39:05 A tangent on IQ and biases
41:05 Prediction markets as a poor man's options
43:05 A top by mid to late December? Vibes, not data
44:05 Bloom Energy: bullish above 185
46:05 Ethereum: last week's low is the low
48:05 Pullbacks to 28.80-29 along the way
49:05 Crosses are not tested edges
51:05 Sideways and up, no new lows
53:05 The monthly 200 SMA: a local high first
54:05 Archer Aviation
55:05 Not your keys, not your coins
57:05 You do not need to be perfect
58:05 Not topped yet
59:05 Never trade your main asset off another asset
1:01:05 Few samples, no edge
1:02:05 A bounce to 107-110 first
1:03:05 HYPE: daily and weekly
1:06:05 Three-day hidden bullish divergence: $30
1:08:05 $19 to $20, then $22
1:09:05 A bounce below $13
1:10:05 Next week: continuation or consolidation?
1:11:05 Zcash over Bitcoin
1:12:05 Use your eyes, not the dominance chart
1:14:05 Last week's low: 255
1:15:05 Circle: the higher timeframes
1:16:05 Buying above 1.50; last month's high is the signal
1:17:05 A range: $38 to $49
1:18:05 Five years of consolidation
1:20:05 Lean bullish short term
1:21:05 Thomas Sowell
1:22:05 Stats, not guarantees
1:23:05 A tested plan, or you lose
1:24:05 Biotechs rally out of nowhere
1:25:05 A five-year consolidation resolving
1:27:05 More downside overall
1:29:05 CRV: the 12-hour higher low
1:30:05 Monero and the French revolution
1:31:05 Close the month here: November trades higher
1:32:05 Iron: $33 or $21, rip or dip
1:33:05 Monthly reversed bullish above 410
1:34:05 Bearish under 268
1:36:05 Cautiously optimistic
1:37:05 16.5 to 18.5 for continuation
1:38:05 Take some profits here
1:39:05 Invalidation: last week's low, 31 cents
1:40:05 Does it even have a bottom? The 200 SMA
1:41:05 A reverse MACD calculation
1:42:05 Silver, weekly and monthly