Bitcoin Live: Here's the Roadmap into next week
Bitcoin Live: Here's the Roadmap into next week
15 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 40 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is cautiously bullish while $79,700 holds; a weekly close above $81,734 would support the higher-low case, while a break below $79,700 could expose $76,000–$76,500.
  • Consider XAR as a long-term accumulation opportunity after its roughly 30% pullback; $180–$185 was cited as a potential add zone if it falls further.
  • Kinetik Holdings (KNTK) has a bullish setup toward $60, provided it holds recent support near $48.20.
  • Zscaler (ZS) has a bullish outlook toward $280–$300, with pullbacks possible; investors with large gains could consider taking partial profits.
  • Avoid assuming a reversal in weak crypto charts: FET was viewed as bearish toward $0.15, and RENDER rallies toward $2–$2.50 were considered speculative.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s base case is that Bitcoin is forming a higher low, but that view depends on support holding.
  • A weekly close above $81,734 was presented as a bullish signal. The speaker also watched $79,700, last week’s low: a break below it would weaken the higher-low setup and put $76,000–$76,500 in view.
  • In the near term, the speaker expected a possible pullback toward the daily 55-day moving average near $80,400. They described Bitcoin as range-bound between roughly $79,700 and $84,250 until it breaks out of that range.
  • The speaker cited historical results for several moving-average setups as supportive of upside over the following weeks and months, while noting that these are historical patterns, not guarantees.
  • For the October high, the speaker said they had a small Kalshi position on Bitcoin finishing above $87,500. The contract was described as costing 20 cents with a potential 5x payout.
  • The speaker saw no clear directional edge from the upcoming FOMC week and dismissed the suggestion of $200,000 by Monday as unrealistic.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors a cautiously bullish outlook if $79,700 holds, with a near-term pullback still possible. A sustained move above $84,250 would strengthen the case for further upside; a break below last week’s low would point to lower support.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

Takeaways

  • The speaker called IBIT’s chart a useful technical reference for Bitcoin. A weekly close above its 5-week moving average near $46.18 was presented as a sign that Bitcoin may be establishing a higher low.
  • IBIT had remained above that moving average since its rally began in August, according to the speaker.
  • The speaker also said they prefer holding IBIT to directly holding Bitcoin, citing concerns about the personal security risks of publicly traceable crypto holdings.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s preference for IBIT was based on custody and privacy concerns, not a claim that it would outperform Bitcoin. Their near-term bullish view was conditional on the relevant moving-average support holding.

Ethereum (ETH)

Takeaways

  • Ethereum was mentioned in the context of the broader crypto outlook. The speaker said they would largely follow Bitcoin’s direction and cited roughly $2,525 as a relevant level.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no independent Ethereum thesis. The speaker’s view was to watch Bitcoin’s support and direction for clues about ETH.

Zcash (ZEC) and Privacy Coins

Takeaways

  • ZEC was described as range-bound, with a range low near $1,050 and a range high around $1,369. The speaker’s bias remained bullish while it held that range.
  • A break below $1,050 would, in the speaker’s view, raise the risk of a move toward roughly $800; they did not treat $1,000 as a particularly significant level.
  • The speaker discussed growing interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, including Zcash and Monero. They said Monero appeared more private at present, while Zcash might gain privacy features in the future.
  • They also noted that privacy is not necessarily guaranteed for either asset.

Takeaways

  • The short-term ZEC outlook was conditional on holding $1,050. The privacy-coin discussion was a broader investment theme, but the speaker highlighted uncertainty about how private these assets truly are.

Gold

Takeaways

  • The speaker maintained a strong long-term bearish view on gold, while allowing for a possible short-term bounce from the recent lows.
  • They cited roughly $3,940–$3,950 as a potential area for a bounce, and said a rebound toward the daily 5-day moving average was a possible minimum target.
  • They expected any larger downside continuation to unfold over time, potentially in November or December, and said they remained bearish while gold was below its August highs.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish over the longer term but open to a short-term rebound. They did not give a specific bounce target or price recommendation for entering a short.

Silver

Takeaways

  • The speaker was more bearish on silver than gold, noting that it had already fallen below a previous low.
  • They said low-$40s were possible before year-end and described the $61 area as an important level: staying below it would keep their outlook strongly bearish.
  • They also suggested silver could rebound toward roughly $56–$57 in the near term, without changing the broader bearish view.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors a bearish longer-term outlook, with a short-term bounce still possible. The speaker’s cited downside timeline was the next two to three months.

S&P 500 Futures

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible short-term move lower toward roughly 7,600.
  • A weekly break below 7,575 was presented as a more significant bearish signal, potentially putting 7,200–7,350 in view.
  • Despite that risk, the speaker said they were not yet bearish on the market overall and would view a larger decline as a potential long-term opportunity. They said a major high could form around year-end, but did not call it a macro top.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was cautious near term but bullish over the longer term. The stated downside levels were conditional on the weekly support break.

Nasdaq Futures

Takeaways

  • The speaker identified 28,200–28,300 as a possible downside target and bounce area.
  • They said a drop below 27,200 would raise the possibility of a larger retracement toward roughly 25,500.
  • They advised respecting the short-term higher lows until those levels broke and deferred making a firmer call until the monthly close.

Takeaways

  • The view was short-term cautious, with a larger downside scenario conditional on losing 27,200.

Cipher Mining (CIFR)

Takeaways

  • The speaker did not call a bottom. They expected a possible bounce from around $7.80, potentially toward $9.50–$10 or higher, but described it as a swing low rather than a confirmed major low.

Takeaways

  • A bounce was considered possible, but the speaker explicitly said the bottom was not confirmed.

Valvoline (VVV)

Takeaways

  • The speaker described VVV as consolidating after being rejected near the top of its range.
  • They identified about $24.67 as a possible short-term bounce area and $21 as the key support level.
  • A break below $21 was described as a bearish development that could put roughly $15–$16 in view.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bias remained cautiously bullish while VVV holds $21, but they did not expect an immediate breakout.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected NEAR might pull back toward $4–$4.25 and described the weekly chart as vulnerable to further weakness if it closed below roughly $4.65.
  • A break below about $3.95 would weaken the speaker’s outlook further.

Takeaways

  • The near-term view was cautious, with support around $4 important to the speaker’s outlook.

Intel (INTC)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected possible further near-term weakness, with $80 cited as a potential bounce area.
  • If Intel bounced but then failed near $104–$105, the speaker said $70 or $65 could come into view.
  • They were not categorically bearish over the very long term, but emphasized the risk of a substantial pullback after the stock’s large prior move.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was near-term cautious, with the stock’s behavior around $80 and any subsequent rejection near $104–$105 as key reference points.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Takeaways

  • The speaker said the weekly support level around $220–$225 had been breached intraday but not yet broken on a weekly closing basis.
  • They expected a possible short-term bounce, perhaps toward $235–$240, but thought the stock could eventually fall toward $180–$190.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed the outlook as cautious, while emphasizing that the relevant support test was based on a weekly close, not an intraday move.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Takeaways

  • The speaker cited several instances of bearish divergence and saw a possible move toward $200, with a potential bounce there.
  • If the monthly close remained weak, they said the downside target could extend to roughly $180–$185.
  • A recovery back above approximately $215 after a bounce would make the speaker less inclined to look immediately for further downside.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected near-term downside risk, but framed the cited levels as conditional technical scenarios rather than firm price targets.

IREN (referred to as “iron” in the transcript)

Takeaways

  • The speaker described the chart as a bearish breakdown after IREN fell below roughly $35.50–$36.
  • A rebound toward around $30 was considered possible, but the speaker’s broader view remained bearish, with roughly $18 cited as a potential area before a larger bounce.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored caution, with any short-term bounce viewed as insufficient on its own to reverse the bearish outlook.

Wolfspeed (WOLF)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected further downside over time, potentially below $9, while allowing for a possible bounce from around $10.50.
  • They said a recovery above roughly $18 would be needed to improve their view materially.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was bearish overall, despite the possibility of a short-term bounce.

Caterpillar (CAT)

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw potential for a bounce around $655–$660.
  • They also suggested that a longer-term recovery above approximately $876 would improve the outlook. Without that recovery, they saw a risk of further weakness, potentially below $600 over time.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was mixed: a short-term bounce was possible, but the speaker remained concerned about the longer-term trend.

Kinetik Holdings (KNTK)

Takeaways

  • The speaker liked the recent reversal and higher low, and thought KNTK could move toward $60.
  • They identified around $49.20 as a risk reference and said their positive view depended on the stock staying above the recent low near $48.20.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bullish, while emphasizing the importance of the cited support levels.

Progyny (PGNY)

Takeaways

  • The speaker described the chart as constructive while it held around $24.50.
  • A monthly close above $30.42 was presented as a potential breakout signal, with roughly $40–$45 in view if that happened.

Takeaways

  • The view was conditionally bullish: the speaker looked for a breakout confirmation above $30.42 and treated $24.50 as important support.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible pullback toward $86–$87 or the lower end of the current range.
  • They remained long-term bullish while HOOD held its major monthly low around $63.50, but said a consolidation could take time.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was long-term bullish but cautious in the short term, with room for further consolidation.

AMN Healthcare (AMN)

Takeaways

  • The speaker thought AMN might extend slightly higher, potentially toward $50, but expected a pullback after its strong move.
  • They described a higher low on a weekly chart as a possible setup for another attempt higher, rather than expecting an uninterrupted advance.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw some further upside potential, but considered a pullback likely after the recent rally.

Unusual Machines (UMAC)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible bounce toward $19.50–$20.
  • They said a break below the prior low near $15.75 would be a bearish sign and could undermine the longer-term bullish case.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautiously positive in the near term, with the longer-term view dependent on support holding.

Oscar Health (OSCR)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a pullback toward roughly $29.50, while retaining a long-term bullish view as long as the stock stayed above $25.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested a possible short-term dip within a longer-term bullish outlook, conditional on holding $25.

Bloom Energy (BE)

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a possible bounce from around $185.
  • If the bounce failed to bring the stock back above roughly $197 by the monthly close, they said $155 could come into view, with a more severe longer-term scenario potentially near $100.

Takeaways

  • The view was cautious: the speaker looked for a bounce attempt but treated a weak monthly close as a significant warning.

Zeta Global (ZETA)

Takeaways

  • The speaker described the longer-term chart as bullish and identified roughly $26.50–$27 as a potential area for a higher low if the stock pulled back.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bullish over the longer term, while allowing for a further pullback before another move higher.

Zscaler (ZS)

Takeaways

  • The speaker considered the chart strong and saw a possible move toward $280–$300.
  • They also said the longer-term setup could support a move above $300, though the path could include pullbacks.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bullish, with a potential partial profit-taking approach mentioned for investors who had already gained substantially.

Entegris (ENTG)

Takeaways

  • The speaker said ENTG’s weekly uptrend remained intact and viewed the area around $125 as important support.
  • A break below $125 would weaken the uptrend. The speaker also noted that the stock had been volatile and time-consuming to hold.

Takeaways

  • The speaker leaned bullish while $125 holds, while emphasizing that the stock’s volatility may make it difficult to hold.

XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF)

Takeaways

  • The speaker said they were adding to XAR as a long-term holding after a decline of nearly 30% from its highs.
  • They identified roughly $180–$185 as a possible lower area to add if the ETF fell further, and described the current level as a potential bounce area.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed the pullback as a long-term accumulation opportunity, while acknowledging that further declines were possible.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

Takeaways

  • The speaker noted that MSTR had risen even while Bitcoin was down on the week.
  • For a user who said they were holding a leveraged position at a small profit, the speaker recommended taking profit because the user did not appear to have a clear strategy. They also said MSTR could move toward roughly $160–$165.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers no general buy recommendation. The speaker’s response was specific to a leveraged position and stressed having a risk plan.

Fetch.ai (FET)

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bearish, describing the chart as a series of failed rallies.
  • They cited $0.15 as a possible downside area and said further weakness could follow over time.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored a bearish outlook and warned against assuming that prior rallies signaled a lasting recovery.

Render (RENDER/RNDR)

Takeaways

  • The speaker strongly criticized averaging down in Render, saying the chart had repeatedly fallen and its rallies had failed.
  • They suggested a bounce toward roughly $2–$2.50 was possible but described it as speculative and said the chart did not support a strong upside case.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bearish and argued that averaging down into a persistent downtrend can compound losses.

Oraichain (ORAI)

Takeaways

  • The speaker described ORAI’s chart as weak, with repeated rallies failing and the broader trend still down.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish, with no clear reversal signal identified.

ZetaChain (ZETA, crypto)

Takeaways

  • The speaker was bullish on the longer-term setup and cited roughly $26.50–$27 as a potential pullback area for a higher low.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed the chart as constructive, while allowing for a pullback before further upside.

CAS (crypto; identification uncertain in the transcript)

Takeaways

  • The speaker was skeptical of the chart, describing it as a sequence of lower highs and expecting sideways-to-down movement.
  • They said a weekly close above $0.05 would be needed to reconsider the view; if that happened, they cited potential levels around $0.075–$0.10.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was bearish unless the token reclaimed $0.05 on a weekly closing basis.

Nike (NKE)

Takeaways

  • The speaker said Nike could be forming a swing low and considered it reasonable to hold or add for a long-term investor.
  • They did not call it a confirmed macro bottom and emphasized that the chart could take time to recover.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautiously positive for a long-term investor, but did not establish that the broader downtrend had definitively ended.

Investment Themes

Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies

  • The speaker said privacy coins may be gaining attention as an investment theme, while noting uncertainty about how private the coins actually are.
  • They also discussed the trade-off between directly holding Bitcoin and using a fund such as IBIT, citing personal security concerns related to identifiable on-chain holdings.

Crypto strategy

  • The speaker warned against averaging down in assets that continue to trend lower and criticized treating older, declining crypto tokens as established investments.
  • They suggested that newer crypto tokens can attract stronger rallies, but the discussion did not provide a specific recommendation or guarantee of returns.

Takeaways

  • The transcript repeatedly favors conditional, level-based decisions over assuming that a price decline or a rally alone confirms a reversal.
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Video Description
Question of the day: does last week's low hold into the Fed? My pivot is $79,694 on a daily close (79,500 on my chart); above it I lean to a bullish resolution, and Tuesday's 5-day close prints the silver cross over $79,227. Inside: a new table on retests of the low (the low broke 46% of the time within 10 days), the silver cross roadmap (six priors, day by day), the 5-day 200 SMA fail case that printed last night, the golden cross roadmap at day 46, the FOMC week for Bitcoin and the S&P, and Kalshi's Fed and October lines. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME through Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497, the code still takes 20%) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. #Bitcoin #BTC #Live #CryptoTrading CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: a new study, and the weekly close tonight 1:51 Bitcoin $200,000 by Monday? The setups still shaping up 2:19 SPY futures: 7,600 first; the bi-weekly line at 7,575 3:23 Under 7,575 on the bi-weekly: 7,200 to 7,350 4:15 No actionable sell signal yet; Nasdaq futures 4:59 Nasdaq: 28,200 is the bounce zone, 27,200 the line 5:49 Gold: back at the lows, a pity bounce first 6:29 Silver: low 40s before the year is over 7:16 Bitcoin: the weekly 5 EMA needs $81,734 tonight 8:03 IBIT has held its 5 EMA since August: $46.18 8:47 The 5-day silver cross: every prior cross 9:32 Crosses that marked a correction first 10:12 Official on the next close over $79,200: the line in the sand 10:59 The silver cross roadmap: 67% green at 30 days, 83% at 90 11:34 Golden cross day 44: +3.8% vs +20%, mean reversion 12:38 New: two 5-day closes under the 200 SMA 13:27 The five priors: green a month later, every time 14:18 Two months 80%, three months 60%: more up than down 15:03 FOMC week: no edge, a coin flip 15:24 Kalshi: the $87,500 October line at 20c, a 5x 15:50 Kalshi contracts as bastardized options 16:27 Super chats: CIFR, a bounce near $7.80 first 17:41 YouTube's auto-moderator banned a regular 18:24 VVV: a bullish consolidation, $21 is the line 19:56 NEAR: $4 to $4.25, $3.95 is the failure 21:22 INTC: a bounce near $80, $70 longer term 23:02 A weekly pivot at $225: closes count, wicks do not 24:45 Bitcoin's daily 5/21 cross: the minimum target is $80,400 26:27 Why a 2-day cross is impossible above the 21 EMA 28:02 ZEC: the range, $1,050 to $1,369 30:16 Moving averages 101: what actually forces a cross 31:33 Gold: where the risk sits, $4,200 33:08 Silver short from 58.5: a textbook bull trap 34:51 NVDA: 180 to 185 if the monthly closes here 36:35 Iron: a breakdown toward $18 38:09 Bitcoin's daily 55 EMA test, probably over the weekend 38:56 The range: $84,250 to $79,700 39:49 IBIT's corrective setup: test it on the asset at hand 41:22 KNTK: bullish above $48.20 43:04 HOOD: a long consolidation, bullish above $63.50 43:52 AMN: the easy move is done 46:32 BEAM: a popcorn top 48:20 Privacy coins: Zcash vs Monero 49:21 Why I hold IBIT, not spot Bitcoin 50:57 CAT: 650 to 660 is the bounce 53:29 A Bitcoin bounce before the 55? Not worth trading 55:08 Security and the ledger 56:38 PGNY: $30.42 is the pivot 57:22 FET: working its way to 15 cents 59:24 WOLF: one more bounce from $10, then lower 1:04:34 UMAC: a bounce toward $20 1:05:21 OSCR: $29.50, then higher 1:08:10 VVV again; crypto conferences 1:09:57 XAR: buying the 20% pullback 1:10:46 Trad-fi outlook: a major high before year-end 1:12:43 BE: a bounce, or a sub-185 breakdown 1:15:48 CAS: lower highs 1:17:31 ORAI: no uptrend 1:18:26 ENTG: balls of steel 1:20:23 A bad Bitcoin trade from $82,500: take the loss 1:22:01 SOL: 98.5 first 1:24:52 ZS: take some profit 1:26:28 RENDER: averaging down into garbage 1:28:12 MSTR: take the profit and run 1:29:07 If stocks drop, does Bitcoin? Mostly on the downside 1:29:59 The bottom is not proven until $84,250 1:30:53 Krong AI discontinued 1:31:47 ZETA; Bitcoin is not a shitcoin 1:32:44 Render's narrative; new shitcoins only 1:33:27 KNTQ; Nike a swing low 1:36:22 ARX; adding on a confirmed higher low 1:38:12 Never ride to liquidation; ARCIUM 1:39:16 Sign-off: Monday, Wednesday, Friday
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Krown

By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...