Question of the day: does last week's low hold into the Fed? My pivot is $79,694 on a daily close (79,500 on my chart); above it I lean to a bullish resolution, and Tuesday's 5-day close prints the silver cross over $79,227.
Inside: a new table on retests of the low (the low broke 46% of the time within 10 days), the silver cross roadmap (six priors, day by day), the 5-day 200 SMA fail case that printed last night, the golden cross roadmap at day 46, the FOMC week for Bitcoin and the S&P, and Kalshi's Fed and October lines.
🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME through Oct 31 (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497, the code still takes 20%)
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/
🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit
→ https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown
📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch)
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101
🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction
→ https://coinbase.com/aff/krown
📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link)
→ https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546
⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial
→ https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
Educational content only. Not financial advice. No personalized recommendations. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Live #CryptoTrading
CHAPTERS
0:00 We are live: a new study, and the weekly close tonight
1:51 Bitcoin $200,000 by Monday? The setups still shaping up
2:19 SPY futures: 7,600 first; the bi-weekly line at 7,575
3:23 Under 7,575 on the bi-weekly: 7,200 to 7,350
4:15 No actionable sell signal yet; Nasdaq futures
4:59 Nasdaq: 28,200 is the bounce zone, 27,200 the line
5:49 Gold: back at the lows, a pity bounce first
6:29 Silver: low 40s before the year is over
7:16 Bitcoin: the weekly 5 EMA needs $81,734 tonight
8:03 IBIT has held its 5 EMA since August: $46.18
8:47 The 5-day silver cross: every prior cross
9:32 Crosses that marked a correction first
10:12 Official on the next close over $79,200: the line in the sand
10:59 The silver cross roadmap: 67% green at 30 days, 83% at 90
11:34 Golden cross day 44: +3.8% vs +20%, mean reversion
12:38 New: two 5-day closes under the 200 SMA
13:27 The five priors: green a month later, every time
14:18 Two months 80%, three months 60%: more up than down
15:03 FOMC week: no edge, a coin flip
15:24 Kalshi: the $87,500 October line at 20c, a 5x
15:50 Kalshi contracts as bastardized options
16:27 Super chats: CIFR, a bounce near $7.80 first
17:41 YouTube's auto-moderator banned a regular
18:24 VVV: a bullish consolidation, $21 is the line
19:56 NEAR: $4 to $4.25, $3.95 is the failure
21:22 INTC: a bounce near $80, $70 longer term
23:02 A weekly pivot at $225: closes count, wicks do not
24:45 Bitcoin's daily 5/21 cross: the minimum target is $80,400
26:27 Why a 2-day cross is impossible above the 21 EMA
28:02 ZEC: the range, $1,050 to $1,369
30:16 Moving averages 101: what actually forces a cross
31:33 Gold: where the risk sits, $4,200
33:08 Silver short from 58.5: a textbook bull trap
34:51 NVDA: 180 to 185 if the monthly closes here
36:35 Iron: a breakdown toward $18
38:09 Bitcoin's daily 55 EMA test, probably over the weekend
38:56 The range: $84,250 to $79,700
39:49 IBIT's corrective setup: test it on the asset at hand
41:22 KNTK: bullish above $48.20
43:04 HOOD: a long consolidation, bullish above $63.50
43:52 AMN: the easy move is done
46:32 BEAM: a popcorn top
48:20 Privacy coins: Zcash vs Monero
49:21 Why I hold IBIT, not spot Bitcoin
50:57 CAT: 650 to 660 is the bounce
53:29 A Bitcoin bounce before the 55? Not worth trading
55:08 Security and the ledger
56:38 PGNY: $30.42 is the pivot
57:22 FET: working its way to 15 cents
59:24 WOLF: one more bounce from $10, then lower
1:04:34 UMAC: a bounce toward $20
1:05:21 OSCR: $29.50, then higher
1:08:10 VVV again; crypto conferences
1:09:57 XAR: buying the 20% pullback
1:10:46 Trad-fi outlook: a major high before year-end
1:12:43 BE: a bounce, or a sub-185 breakdown
1:15:48 CAS: lower highs
1:17:31 ORAI: no uptrend
1:18:26 ENTG: balls of steel
1:20:23 A bad Bitcoin trade from $82,500: take the loss
1:22:01 SOL: 98.5 first
1:24:52 ZS: take some profit
1:26:28 RENDER: averaging down into garbage
1:28:12 MSTR: take the profit and run
1:29:07 If stocks drop, does Bitcoin? Mostly on the downside
1:29:59 The bottom is not proven until $84,250
1:30:53 Krong AI discontinued
1:31:47 ZETA; Bitcoin is not a shitcoin
1:32:44 Render's narrative; new shitcoins only
1:33:27 KNTQ; Nike a swing low
1:36:22 ARX; adding on a confirmed higher low
1:38:12 Never ride to liquidation; ARCIUM
1:39:16 Sign-off: Monday, Wednesday, Friday