Bitcoin Live: Green on Fed Day. Dip First, or Straight Up?
Bitcoin Live: Green on Fed Day. Dip First, or Straight Up?
16 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 27 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC): Stay cautiously bullish only if it holds $79,700; a 4-hour close above $82,000 and daily close above $84,000–$84,200 would strengthen the recovery case, while a break below support could expose $77,500–$78,500.
  • Gold: The near-term bias is bearish toward a retest of recent lows; reassess if gold rises above 4,082.8.
  • Solana (SOL): Watch $100 support; a move above $109, preferably $113.25, would improve momentum, but weakness in Bitcoin could pressure SOL.
  • Zcash (ZEC): Consider the bullish setup confirmed only after a daily close above $1,366.50; a higher low near $1,175 would be constructive.
  • Google (GOOGL/GOOG): A bounce is possible while the stock holds $271.50; a break below could expose $240–$245 or lower.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker was leaning bullish, but said the short-term trend had not yet clearly reversed. He cited several conditions for improving confidence:
    • A 4-hour close above about $82,000 would be an early signal that Bitcoin may avoid an immediate further decline.
    • A daily close above roughly $84,000–$84,200 would provide stronger confirmation.
    • He said a close above $87,500 could open the way to new highs, potentially in early November.
  • Short-term downside levels included $79,700 on a daily closing basis. Below that, he cited corrective targets around $77,500–$78,500.
  • For the broader outlook, he said Bitcoin holding above $75,000 would preserve his bullish view. A drop below that level would make him reconsider it.
  • He described a possible later scenario in which Bitcoin rallies to $92,000–$93,000 before a sharper correction toward $81,000–$82,000. This was presented as a possibility, not a firm forecast.
  • He cited potential bullish signals from Bitcoin’s two-day chart and a long-term MACD indicator, while emphasizing that these signals were not guarantees. He also discussed Bitcoin ETF IBIT and CME chart signals.
  • The speaker said he bought a small amount of Bitcoin during the stream at $81,349.74. He also noted that he was working with Coinbase, so that platform discussion was promotional.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s main near-term decision points were $79,700 on the downside and $82,000–$84,200 on the upside.
  • The speaker’s bullish stance was conditional: he wanted price confirmation before treating the recovery as established.
  • He specifically warned that a rally could still be followed by a substantial correction.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker described Ethereum as weaker than Bitcoin.
  • He said that if Bitcoin held its key short-term level near $79,700, he did not expect Ethereum to immediately collapse. If Bitcoin broke down, however, he expected Ethereum to be hit harder.
  • He discussed a bearish daily “silver cross” signal for Ethereum, while also noting that such signals can occur near a low and are not definitive on their own.

Takeaways

  • The speaker treated Ethereum’s outlook as largely dependent on Bitcoin’s direction, with greater downside vulnerability if Bitcoin weakened.
  • The transcript did not provide a specific Ethereum price target.

Gold

  • The speaker said he was short gold and leaned toward further downside through the following Wednesday.
  • He expected a possible retest of the recent lows discussed in the stream, but did not say that a break below those lows was certain.
  • He said a move back above the prior day’s high—quoted at approximately 4,082.8—would cause him to reassess the bearish view.

Takeaways

  • The stated view was bearish in the near term, but depended on gold remaining below the cited prior-day high.
  • The speaker’s downside case was a retest of recent lows, not a specific longer-term forecast.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

  • The speaker linked BMNR’s outlook to Ethereum and Bitcoin, describing it as a high-risk asset whose chart did not look especially strong.
  • He said holding above $20.56, the October low he cited, would leave room for the price to stabilize.
  • A daily close below $20.56 would, in his view, make the chart substantially more concerning.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautiously conditional, rather than independently bullish on BMNR.
  • The speaker’s key risk level was $20.56; he emphasized the possibility of a much worse decline if it failed.

BE (ticker as stated)

  • The speaker said a weekly close below roughly $185–$186 would turn his view bearish, with possible downside toward $130 or lower.
  • For a more constructive outlook, he cited a bi-monthly close above $215, and said a close above $235 would be preferable.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view depended on the stock holding its cited support and closing above the stated longer-term levels.
  • A close below $185–$186 was the specific bearish risk he identified.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker described Solana as weaker than Bitcoin, though somewhat stronger than Ethereum.
  • He identified about $100 as an important support area. Holding above it could allow a higher low to form.
  • He said a move above $109 would improve the chart, with about $113.25 as a more conservative confirmation level.
  • He warned that if Bitcoin broke down, Solana could fall sharply as well.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautiously constructive only while support holds.
  • The levels he highlighted were $100 for support and $109–$113.25 for improving momentum.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker noted a strong rally and said a monthly close near the levels reached during the stream would be a positive signal for potential strength into November.
  • He said the asset was in price discovery and did not identify a reliable upside target.
  • He cautioned against attributing price moves to a public figure’s comments without evidence, saying such explanations can be difficult to verify.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bullish on momentum but did not provide a defensible price target.
  • The speaker’s main caution was that a sharp rally and social-media attention do not, by themselves, establish a lasting investment case.

PER (Hyperliquid-related token, as described)

  • The speaker said PER could pull back after its sharp rise, with roughly $11–$11.25 discussed as a possible area for that pullback.
  • He said the weekly chart showed a potentially constructive higher-low setup and that a move back toward prior highs was possible if the broader HYPE-linked strength continued.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was conditional and speculative: the speaker saw possible further upside but also expected a near-term pullback.
  • No firm breakout confirmation or reliable long-term target was given.

U.S. Equities and SPY Futures

  • The speaker said U.S. stocks have generally risen over time under presidents from both major parties, while acknowledging that political outcomes can affect markets.
  • He specifically identified civil unrest as a serious potential risk around the election period.
  • For SPY futures, he cited 75.75 as an important weekly support level. He said a move above about 78.12 would improve the technical picture.
  • He also said a monthly close closer to 77.80 would look better than the level at the time of the stream.

Takeaways

  • The speaker retained a broadly positive view while the cited weekly support held, but said the market was not an obvious immediate breakout.
  • Political unrest was the explicit market-wide risk discussed.

Google (GOOGL/GOOG)

  • The speaker discussed a sharp decline from around $410 to approximately $280, describing it as a correction of about 30%.
  • He said the stock could bounce near current levels if the longer-term uptrend remained intact.
  • He identified $271.50, the March low he cited, as an important level. A break below it would raise the risk of a deeper decline.
  • He gave different possible downside areas if that level failed: around $240–$245 in one part of the discussion, and $220–$230 later.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a potential bounce, but wanted the stock to hold above $271.50 to avoid a more serious deterioration.
  • The downside estimates below that level were presented as scenarios, not firm targets.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

  • The speaker described Robinhood as being in a longer-term range with a broadly positive trend, but said the near-term chart looked corrective after a rejection near the range high.
  • He mentioned a possible bounce toward $97–$100, followed by a potential decline toward $75–$80.
  • He said holding above the prior low would preserve the longer-term uptrend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker distinguished between a positive longer-term structure and a weaker near-term setup.
  • The cited $75–$80 area was a possible lower range, not a guaranteed destination.

Intel (INTC)

  • The speaker said Intel’s short-term chart could support a rally toward roughly $93–$94.50.
  • For the broader picture, he cited $81–$82 as a level it should hold to preserve the higher-low structure.
  • He disclosed that he owned Intel and had traded around the position.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw potential for a short-term rebound, but identified $81–$82 as the more important broader risk area.
  • His ownership disclosure is relevant context for his positive commentary.

Nokia (NOK)

  • The speaker saw potential for a short-term rally toward about $10.
  • He said that even a move toward that level would remain below a prior lower high near $11.17, so it would not establish a longer-term reversal.
  • He was not positive on the longer-term chart.

Takeaways

  • The discussion allowed for a short-term rebound but remained cautious on the longer-term trend.
  • A rally toward $10 would not, by itself, confirm a trend reversal.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker cited about $4.30 as a short-term level and $3.92 as a more relevant support area.
  • He said a daily close above $5 would make the chart more constructive.
  • A loss of support would make the move look less like a routine correction and more like a failed bullish setup.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was conditional on support holding and price reclaiming $5.
  • The transcript did not provide a specific upside target.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker described Zcash as one of the stronger cryptocurrencies in the market and said a higher low near $1,175 would be constructive.
  • He said a daily close above approximately $1,366.50 would confirm a breakout in his analysis.
  • He also noted that privacy coins were receiving attention from larger investors and mentioned claims that Zcash is preparing for a post-quantum environment, while acknowledging that he was not a specialist on the project’s fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • The technical view was bullish if the breakout level is cleared; otherwise, confirmation was still pending.
  • Privacy and post-quantum readiness were discussed as themes, not as independently verified investment conclusions.

Nasdaq (NDQ)

  • The speaker said the broader trend remained upward, but a weekly close below 28,750 would raise the chance of a deeper correction toward approximately 27,400–27,500.

Takeaways

  • The view remained positive while the cited support held, with 28,750 as the key downside threshold discussed.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • Bitcoin Cash was discussed as a historical example of a Bitcoin fork that attracted substantial attention during the “block size wars.” The speaker suggested that later forks generally attracted less interest.
  • Dogecoin came up in a discussion of celebrity-driven price moves. The speaker argued that a public figure’s mention of an asset does not prove the cause of a rally and warned that attention-driven gains may not last.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered no current price targets or buy/sell recommendations for either asset.
  • The main caution was not to treat a celebrity mention or past hype as evidence of durable value.
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Video Description
Question of the day: did the Fed just cancel the correction? No, it delayed it: the targets at $78,407 and $77,475 stand, and the 20 day read is higher. 🟪 OCTOBER SALE: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code LIFETIME through Oct 31 noon PT (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #CryptoTrading CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: an impromptu double stream 1:16 A shorter stream today; no stream Friday 2:10 Transformers, SWAT shows, a tangent 3:22 Chat catch: no corrective cross on the CME 2-day 3:45 Hidden bullish divergence on the 2-day RSI; confirms tomorrow 4:16 The pivots: an $84,000 daily close negates the downside 4:52 Why I watch IBIT over CME now 5:33 The IBIT 2-day closes today: the higher low test 6:13 By the book: $84,200 daily, $82,200 four-hour 7:28 The first domino: a four-hour close above $82,000 8:19 Downside targets: the 2-day 55 at $77,500, the 13/34 at $78,500 9:04 The correction I actually expect: $92,000 then $81,000 10:06 The line: $79,700 on a daily close 10:37 The 3-week MACD: first green tick since October 2025 11:01 Every first green tick after a long red run 12:23 $75,000: the pivot that changes my outlook 13:10 Reverend ribbons: the mid band at $81,850 13:45 The blue box target: $84,000 to $87,000 14:23 The Daily Hundred, Day 72: filled at $81,349 14:55 Coinbase: 80% off spot fees, options next month 16:18 Is Ethereum cooked? It holds if $79,700 holds 17:12 The golden cross roadmap: day 51, +3.1% vs a +20% median 18:59 The election next week, civil unrest and markets 20:55 America, opportunity and the tax code 21:57 Super chats: short gold into next Wednesday 23:10 BMNR: $20.56 is the line 24:22 BE weekly: $185 is the line; $215 to $235 on the bi-monthly 25:35 A trade every day, even in a slow tape 26:14 Bitcoin bi-monthly: above $77,500 at the close keeps the bull case 27:00 Solana weekly and monthly: $100 is the line, $113 flips it 28:26 HYPE: the trending higher low held, new highs 29:21 Beeline, explained by chat 29:45 ES futures weekly: 7,812 to reclaim, 7,575 the pivot 31:32 Elon, Hyperliquid and the NYSE 32:36 Upside targets for HYPE? No structure in price discovery 33:04 PEPE: a popcorn rally to fade 33:45 Doge and the Elon-pump myth: unfalsifiable claims 35:43 Bitcoin vs the yen on the HPDR bands 38:17 The index monthly and bi-monthly: $88,000 38:51 A chat ticker up 10%: no plan, take the profit 41:03 ZEC: the breakout level and the higher low 42:56 Zcash, privacy and the quantum narrative 43:30 NDQ: a weekly close under 28,750 opens a deeper correction 45:16 The B-cash fork and why I ignore forks 46:36 If $79,700 breaks: $76,000 to $77,000; $75,000 is the big one 48:04 GOOG: a 30% correction, should bounce here 48:55 HOOD daily: range play, $97 to $100 first 50:17 The 5-day 5 EMA trade: a 1% filter vs a trailing stop 51:30 PURR, the Hyperliquid ETF: a pullback toward $11 52:37 The new rifle and the optics talk 54:16 Intel hourly: a rally toward $93 to $94 55:15 Roger Ver, taxes and Spain 58:00 NOK: a rally to $10, still a lower high under $11.17 59:50 Europe taxes and the golden goose 1:00:51 NOW: a falling knife, no buy targets 1:02:11 BMNR again: follow Bitcoin 1:02:36 Tax rates around the world 1:04:00 Why capital gains should be lower: how the system works 1:05:28 Stream lag check 1:05:49 Taxes, schools and the Trump accounts 1:08:24 NEAR weekly: holding the line 1:09:35 Big Wick: the 13/34 cross and the 89 touch; $82,000 negates it 1:10:45 Socialism, schools and California 1:12:01 GOOG again: bounce here, no lower than $271.50 1:13:54 Is a lagging golden cross bearish? Mean reversion says no 1:14:58 Where we sit: the 30th to 35th percentile of golden cross paths 1:16:59 The six-hour and four-hour: $82,000 is the proximal area 1:17:28 The weekly silver cross: three to four weeks away 1:18:20 Advice for a bad breakup 1:20:03 The bearish silver cross on Ethereum daily: the record 1:22:34 Make money and women come? No 1:24:50 Capcom 9697 weekly: 3,300 to 3,500 the next higher low 1:27:10 Sign-off: thanks for the impromptu stream DISCLOSURES General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...