Question of the day: did the Fed just cancel the correction? No, it delayed it: the targets at $78,407 and $77,475 stand, and the 20 day read is higher.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #CryptoTrading
CHAPTERS
0:00 We are live: an impromptu double stream
1:16 A shorter stream today; no stream Friday
2:10 Transformers, SWAT shows, a tangent
3:22 Chat catch: no corrective cross on the CME 2-day
3:45 Hidden bullish divergence on the 2-day RSI; confirms tomorrow
4:16 The pivots: an $84,000 daily close negates the downside
4:52 Why I watch IBIT over CME now
5:33 The IBIT 2-day closes today: the higher low test
6:13 By the book: $84,200 daily, $82,200 four-hour
7:28 The first domino: a four-hour close above $82,000
8:19 Downside targets: the 2-day 55 at $77,500, the 13/34 at $78,500
9:04 The correction I actually expect: $92,000 then $81,000
10:06 The line: $79,700 on a daily close
10:37 The 3-week MACD: first green tick since October 2025
11:01 Every first green tick after a long red run
12:23 $75,000: the pivot that changes my outlook
13:10 Reverend ribbons: the mid band at $81,850
13:45 The blue box target: $84,000 to $87,000
14:23 The Daily Hundred, Day 72: filled at $81,349
14:55 Coinbase: 80% off spot fees, options next month
16:18 Is Ethereum cooked? It holds if $79,700 holds
17:12 The golden cross roadmap: day 51, +3.1% vs a +20% median
18:59 The election next week, civil unrest and markets
20:55 America, opportunity and the tax code
21:57 Super chats: short gold into next Wednesday
23:10 BMNR: $20.56 is the line
24:22 BE weekly: $185 is the line; $215 to $235 on the bi-monthly
25:35 A trade every day, even in a slow tape
26:14 Bitcoin bi-monthly: above $77,500 at the close keeps the bull case
27:00 Solana weekly and monthly: $100 is the line, $113 flips it
28:26 HYPE: the trending higher low held, new highs
29:21 Beeline, explained by chat
29:45 ES futures weekly: 7,812 to reclaim, 7,575 the pivot
31:32 Elon, Hyperliquid and the NYSE
32:36 Upside targets for HYPE? No structure in price discovery
33:04 PEPE: a popcorn rally to fade
33:45 Doge and the Elon-pump myth: unfalsifiable claims
35:43 Bitcoin vs the yen on the HPDR bands
38:17 The index monthly and bi-monthly: $88,000
38:51 A chat ticker up 10%: no plan, take the profit
41:03 ZEC: the breakout level and the higher low
42:56 Zcash, privacy and the quantum narrative
43:30 NDQ: a weekly close under 28,750 opens a deeper correction
45:16 The B-cash fork and why I ignore forks
46:36 If $79,700 breaks: $76,000 to $77,000; $75,000 is the big one
48:04 GOOG: a 30% correction, should bounce here
48:55 HOOD daily: range play, $97 to $100 first
50:17 The 5-day 5 EMA trade: a 1% filter vs a trailing stop
51:30 PURR, the Hyperliquid ETF: a pullback toward $11
52:37 The new rifle and the optics talk
54:16 Intel hourly: a rally toward $93 to $94
55:15 Roger Ver, taxes and Spain
58:00 NOK: a rally to $10, still a lower high under $11.17
59:50 Europe taxes and the golden goose
1:00:51 NOW: a falling knife, no buy targets
1:02:11 BMNR again: follow Bitcoin
1:02:36 Tax rates around the world
1:04:00 Why capital gains should be lower: how the system works
1:05:28 Stream lag check
1:05:49 Taxes, schools and the Trump accounts
1:08:24 NEAR weekly: holding the line
1:09:35 Big Wick: the 13/34 cross and the 89 touch; $82,000 negates it
1:10:45 Socialism, schools and California
1:12:01 GOOG again: bounce here, no lower than $271.50
1:13:54 Is a lagging golden cross bearish? Mean reversion says no
1:14:58 Where we sit: the 30th to 35th percentile of golden cross paths
1:16:59 The six-hour and four-hour: $82,000 is the proximal area
1:17:28 The weekly silver cross: three to four weeks away
1:18:20 Advice for a bad breakup
1:20:03 The bearish silver cross on Ethereum daily: the record
1:22:34 Make money and women come? No
1:24:50 Capcom 9697 weekly: 3,300 to 3,500 the next higher low
1:27:10 Sign-off: thanks for the impromptu stream
DISCLOSURES
General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.