Bitcoin: Does November Hold the October Low?
Bitcoin: Does November Hold the October Low?
18 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 54 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Watch Bitcoin (BTC) at $76,141 and $75,000: holding through the first week of November would support a cautiously constructive view, while a sustained break below raises downside risk toward the mid-$60,000s.
  • Treat QQQ as vulnerable if it posts a weekly close below $660–$661, which could expose $625–$635; wait for it to reclaim the prior week’s high before turning more positive.
  • Consider VWCE for long-term diversified exposure; a pullback to 166–167 may be attractive if the uptrend holds, while a weekly close below 160 would warrant reassessment.
  • Avoid treating rebounds in CRCL or GEMI as confirmed reversals; the discussed confirmation levels are $79–$80 for CRCL and $6.25 for GEMI.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Context

  • The host identified the October low at $76,141 as the key short-term level. Holding above it through the first week of November was presented as a potentially constructive signal for November and December; breaking it would raise the risk of a decline below $70,000, potentially into the mid-$60,000s.
  • His more permissive “line in the sand” was a close below $75,000. He said such a breakdown would significantly weaken his outlook and could delay a meaningful bullish recovery until at least the end of the first quarter of the following year.
  • Bitcoin had tested roughly $78,500, the prior bi-monthly open. The host viewed that area as a possible ceiling for bears to watch, while noting that a move above $82,000 would be a more significant positive signal.
  • The host said the first week of November, especially by November 7, could clarify the direction for the month. He also cited historical data suggesting November was often positive when Bitcoin held above October’s low, while cautioning that the current market had recently moved contrary to seasonal patterns.
  • The discussion noted possible support from several technical signals, but also described the chart as less than healthy. The host said a break below the October low could reverse some of those signals.
  • He cited potential market uncertainty around U.S. elections and the risk of civil unrest as factors that could weigh on markets.

Takeaways

  • Watch $76,141 as the main near-term test and $75,000 as the host’s stricter trend threshold. A sustained break below those levels would weaken the bullish case; holding them through the first week would be more encouraging.
  • The host’s outlook was cautiously optimistic only while key support holds. His historical November statistics are not a guarantee of future returns.

Gold

Context

  • The host said he was extremely bearish on gold, describing its chart as a developing downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
  • He said a rebound could occur, but expected it to form another lower high. He identified $4,300 as a level relevant to his bearish view and described $4,700 as a more important prior high.
  • He said he expected gold to be lower over the next one to two years, while acknowledging that rebounds could occur along the way.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s stance was bearish, but the host did not provide a specific entry point or price target for a gold trade. Any investment decision would depend on whether the downtrend continues or reverses.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Context

  • The host said the broader traditional market looked vulnerable to a pullback, though the S&P 500 had closed above its 5-day EMA and had therefore “salvaged” the week’s close.
  • He said markets generally tend to rise regardless of which U.S. political party wins, but emphasized that markets dislike uncertainty and unrest.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested a cautious near-term outlook, with political uncertainty and possible unrest identified as risks. The transcript did not give a specific SPY price target.

Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)

Context

  • The host viewed the technology-heavy Nasdaq as weaker than the broader market and said tech stocks could face further pressure.
  • A weekly close below roughly $660–$661 was described as a breakdown signal, with a possible move toward $625–$635. Reclaiming the prior week’s high would improve the outlook.

Takeaways

  • The host’s near-term bias was cautious to bearish unless QQQ reclaimed the prior week’s high. The $660–$661 weekly-close area was the key downside trigger discussed.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

Context

  • In response to a comment about the dollar index being near the top of a channel, the host said he did not place much weight on DXY as a predictor for Bitcoin.
  • He explained that DXY measures the dollar against other currencies, not against assets, and said the dollar and Bitcoin can sometimes rise or fall together.

Takeaways

  • The host did not treat DXY as a reliable standalone signal for Bitcoin’s direction. The transcript did not include a specific DXY trade or price target.

Crude Oil

Context

  • The host expected some near-term downside in crude oil, with a possible move toward $92–$94.
  • He said that area could become a potential bounce zone if oil remained bullish, but emphasized that oil was influenced by geopolitics and that he was uncertain about how it would trade.

Takeaways

  • The view was short-term cautious but potentially bullish around $92–$94 if that area held. The host stressed uncertainty rather than presenting this as a firm forecast.

Ethereum (ETH)

Context

  • Ethereum was mentioned in relation to BitMine Immersion Technologies: the host said a substantial rally in Ethereum, likely alongside a Bitcoin rally, could help lift BMNR.
  • He did not provide a standalone Ethereum forecast or price level.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers no independent ETH recommendation. Ethereum’s relevance in the discussion was primarily as a possible driver of BMNR.

Ethena (ENA)

Context

  • The host described ENA’s chart as very weak and said it had not established a clear uptrend.
  • He identified roughly $0.295 as a key level that would need to be reclaimed to change his broader bearish view. A daily close below about $0.17 could open the way toward $0.13.
  • He allowed that a short-term bounce was possible but said a bounce that failed to reclaim key levels would not change the larger bearish picture.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s stance was bearish. A bounce alone was not presented as evidence of a trend reversal; the host emphasized reclaiming resistance levels first.

NCC (Stockholm-listed company)

Context

  • The host said NCC had spent much of the period since 2017 in a broad consolidation.
  • He viewed the recent low as a possible swing low, with potential upside toward roughly 190–200 in the stock’s quoted currency.
  • A weekly close above 200 was described as stronger evidence of an emerging uptrend.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was tentatively constructive, but the host said a sustained move above 200 would be needed to support a more confident bullish view. The transcript did not specify the currency.

Semiconductor Sector

Context

  • The host said technology and semiconductor shares looked vulnerable to further correction and suggested money could rotate out of tech while the rest of the market held up better.
  • For semiconductor exposure, he cited a possible test of support near $89.50 on one chart and noted a larger support area around $163 on another. He did not identify the first instrument clearly in the transcript.
  • He said a bounce would not necessarily mean a full trend reversal.

Takeaways

  • The sector outlook was cautious, with the host favoring evidence of a sustained recovery over trying to buy simply because prices had fallen.

VVSMF (Semiconductor ETF, as named in the transcript)

Context

  • The host said the instrument was not trading actively and suggested there were more liquid alternatives.
  • He compared it with semiconductor-market exposure and described the broader sector as vulnerable to further downside, though a bounce could occur.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious and raised a liquidity concern. The transcript did not provide enough detail to assess the specific fund beyond the host’s comment that it did not trade much.

Circle (CRCL)

Context

  • The host said he wanted to own Circle but was waiting for a weekly uptrend to emerge rather than trying to anticipate a reversal.
  • He described roughly $79–$80 as a possible near-term rebound area, but said a rejection there could bring the price toward $60.
  • He emphasized that the chart remained in a downtrend and that the company’s longer-term prospects did not prevent the stock from falling further.

Takeaways

  • The stance was bearish in the short term, with the host waiting for an uptrend before considering a more positive view. A rebound by itself would not confirm a reversal.

Gemini (GEMI)

Context

  • The host said he wanted to own Gemini but would wait for a weekly uptrend rather than buying during a continuing decline.
  • He noted that the stock had made a new low and identified about $6.25 as a level it would at least need to reclaim to improve the chart.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s view was bearish until the chart improves. The host emphasized waiting for confirmation rather than trying to catch a falling price.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

Context

  • The host described Robinhood as a broad trading range, with a range high around $124 and a range low near $63.50.
  • He said a rebound toward $91–$93 was possible, but would not by itself change the outlook. He identified about $103 as a more meaningful level to reclaim for a stronger bullish signal.
  • He expected further downside to remain possible toward the lower part of the range.

Takeaways

  • The near-term stance was cautious to bearish. The host distinguished between a possible bounce and a confirmed reversal, with $103 cited as a more meaningful recovery level.

Zcash (ZEC)

Context

  • The host viewed ZEC as trading in a range after rejecting the range high near $1,380.
  • He expected a move toward roughly $1,050 as a possible range-low test, while identifying about $1,210–$1,215 as a nearer-term level where a short-term bounce could occur.
  • He said a break below the range could lead to further downside, but treated that as a possibility rather than a certainty.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested a range-bound, cautious outlook. The host expected a possible bounce near-term but saw the broader path as potentially lower unless the range held.

VVV

Context

  • The host described VVV as having rejected its range high and expected a possible short-term bounce near the then-current price.
  • He said a move back above $89 would improve the outlook. A break below roughly $74 would make him consider the asset significantly weaker.
  • He also cited $19–$19.50 as a potential lower area if the decline continued.

Takeaways

  • The host’s stance was cautious, expecting any bounce to need confirmation. The levels discussed were conditional chart markers, not guaranteed support or targets.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

Context

  • The host described BMNR as weak and said it would likely need a strong rally in Ethereum, supported by Bitcoin, to improve.
  • He identified $18–$19 as a possible downside area and said he had no reason to be bullish while BMNR remained below about $25.
  • He said the stock had closed below major moving averages, which he considered a negative signal.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s stance was bearish. The host viewed BMNR as particularly dependent on a broader crypto recovery and did not describe it as strong on its own.

Binance Coin (BNB)

Context

  • The host said BNB was in a technically better position than Bitcoin at the time, having closed above major moving averages on the monthly chart.
  • He said a close below about $675 would raise the risk of a move toward $550–$560.
  • He also questioned the significance of claims that a hacker avoided BNB, noting that BNB’s connection to Binance could make it a less practical asset for a hacker to take.

Takeaways

  • The technical outlook was conditional: stronger than Bitcoin on the cited monthly measure, but vulnerable if it lost $675 or if Bitcoin weakened.

Solana (SOL)

Context

  • The host said Solana had already weakened and could fall toward roughly $75–$80 if Bitcoin broke down.
  • He identified about $88 as a possible short-term bounce area but said Solana was not strong enough to rely on independently.
  • He noted that Solana had closed below its September low on the monthly chart.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was bearish and Bitcoin-dependent. The host saw downside risk if Bitcoin lost support, while treating a short-term bounce as distinct from a trend reversal.

XRP

Context

  • XRP’s monthly close was described as being near $1.25, the September low, though the weekly chart had closed slightly below that level.
  • The host said a weekly close back above roughly $1.285, or a move above about $1.3425, would improve his view. He identified about $1.55 as a stronger confirmation level.
  • If Bitcoin broke down, he said XRP could move toward roughly $1.10–$1.15.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was mixed and dependent on Bitcoin. The host viewed the monthly support as potentially holding, but said a broader crypto-market decline could still pressure XRP.

Chainlink (LINK)

Context

  • The host said LINK had traded below its September low but recovered before the weekly close, leaving it in a less negative position than some other crypto assets.
  • He said the bullish case remained possible while the weekly close stayed above about $10.65. A Bitcoin breakdown, however, could expose LINK to further downside, potentially below $10.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautious and Bitcoin-dependent. The host treated $10.65 as an important level for the near-term bullish case.

Costco (COST)

Context

  • The host called Costco’s chart one of the stronger ones discussed, noting a long consolidation and an existing monthly uptrend.
  • He suggested the stock could pull back after approaching roughly $1,050–$1,060, but viewed that as potentially forming another higher low rather than necessarily ending the uptrend.
  • He identified about $883 as a level that would weaken the bullish case.

Takeaways

  • The host was bullish over the longer term, while allowing for a pullback. He viewed weakness that held above key support as potentially constructive rather than automatically bearish.

Alphabet (GOOG)

Context

  • The host said Alphabet’s chart was not attractive, despite the possibility of a bounce from around $271.
  • He said a rebound toward $290–$300 could still be rejected. A weekly move back above roughly $360 was described as necessary to improve the broader outlook.

Takeaways

  • The stance was bearish to cautious, with the host treating a rebound as insufficient evidence of a reversal unless larger resistance levels were reclaimed.

Bloom Energy (BE)

Context

  • The host said Bloom Energy was showing relative strength compared with some other technology stocks.
  • He described a possible near-term range of about $186–$218. Reclaiming the prior week’s high near $231.50 would improve the outlook; a weekly close below $186 would weaken it.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautiously constructive relative to the tech sector, but the host did not call a confirmed reversal. He emphasized the range and the need to reclaim $231.50.

Marvell Technology (MRVL; referred to as “Marble” in the transcript)

Context

  • The host described the chart as under pressure but said it could bounce near the $160–$163 area.
  • He said a move back above roughly $253–$255 would be a more meaningful bullish signal. A break below the October low would threaten the broader uptrend.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggested a possible support-driven bounce, but not a confirmed recovery. The host treated a break below the October low as a significant warning.

Quanta Services (PWR)

Context

  • The host said PWR could see a short-term pullback toward roughly $585–$590, but viewed the broader chart as potentially constructive.
  • He described a wide range, with support near $522 and resistance near $722. Holding the October low was important to the bullish interpretation.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautiously bullish while key support held. The host described a wide trading range rather than a confirmed breakout toward the viewer’s proposed $700 level.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

Context

  • The host said TSM’s monthly chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern and leaned toward further downside.
  • He discussed possible lower areas around $385–$373, while noting that a short-term bounce might occur first.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view was bearish overall, despite the possibility of a temporary bounce.

Intel (INTC)

Context

  • The host said Intel could attempt a rebound toward roughly $75, but did not view that as a likely longer-term reversal.
  • He said further downside remained possible, with a broader potential low in the low-to-mid $50s.

Takeaways

  • The stance was bearish over the longer term, with a possible short-term bounce. The host did not identify the rebound as a confirmed trend change.

Micron Technology (MU)

Context

  • The host said Micron looked stronger than some other semiconductor stocks but still saw near-term downside risk.
  • He cited roughly $780 as a possible pullback area and said a move below about $740 would be more concerning.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was cautious, with $740 described as an important level to watch. The host did not present the potential pullback as a confirmed long-term reversal.

Caterpillar (CAT)

Context

  • The host expected a possible rebound toward roughly $650–$700 during the month, but said the stock’s broader chart remained weak.
  • He suggested that a rebound could fail and that the stock might later move below $600.

Takeaways

  • The view was bearish overall, with a possible temporary rebound. The host distinguished that bounce from a durable recovery.

GXO Logistics (GXO)

Context

  • The host viewed GXO as having potential upside, citing $54–$55 as a possible area.
  • He said a close back above $63.37 would provide stronger evidence of a reversal.

Takeaways

  • The outlook was tentatively constructive, but the host distinguished possible upside from a confirmed reversal, which he tied to reclaiming $63.37.

URG (ticker as stated in the transcript)

Context

  • The host described URG’s weekly chart as very weak and said the broader direction appeared to be down.
  • The company and its business were not identified clearly in the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The chart commentary was bearish, but the transcript does not provide enough identifying information to confidently assess the specific security.

CDN (ticker as stated in the transcript)

Context

  • The host described the chart as very weak and said its direction appeared to be down.
  • The asset and company were not identified clearly in the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The host’s technical view was bearish, but the transcript gives too little context to assess the asset beyond that chart observation.

VWCE (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF)

Context

  • The host described VWCE as being in a strong long-term uptrend.
  • He said a pullback toward 166–167 could be an opportunity, while identifying a weekly close below about 160 as a reason to reassess the bullish view.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s stance was long-term bullish, with a pullback viewed as potentially attractive if the broader uptrend remained intact.

Diversified Index Funds and Broad ETFs

Context

  • The host said that, for long-term investing, broad, low-profile diversified ETFs and major indices could be more dependable than trying to select individual winners.
  • He described this approach as potentially competitive over time with many active financial advisers, while acknowledging that it may not produce the largest gains in every period.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored broad diversification as a long-term investing approach, rather than relying exclusively on individual stock or crypto picks.

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Video Description
Question of the day: does November hold the October low ($76,195)? That is the whole month: Novembers that held it went 90% green, the ones that broke it 0%. 🟪 LIFETIME ACCESS, STILL OPEN: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code NOVEMBER until TradingView's change takes effect (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: November is open; streams run an hour earlier now 0:20 Week 1 of November reveals the direction, by day 7 1:35 Wrecked or rich? $100,000 by December? 2:06 Seasonality flipped: Aug, Sep and Oct all ran opposite 5:21 DXY at the top of a channel: not a correlation I trade 5:57 The charts: the new bi-monthly open 6:12 The $78,500 test came on day one ($78,762) 6:43 The biggest bear case: the high is in; my line is $75,000 7:34 Hopium lives above the October low: the data 7:51 Held the October low: 90% green Novembers, near +20% 8:22 All Novembers: 80% green week 1, 60% the first half 8:38 The October low is last week's low, $76,141 9:14 If it breaks: the mid $60,000s, a red rest of the year 10:05 Tomorrow's midterms: the unrest matters, not the result 12:39 The 5-day silver cross: the low by day 5, always by day 10 14:04 Days 15 to 20: 83% green; day 30: a +32% median 14:38 Day 5 was the low so far, and it is the October low 15:25 Golden cross roadmap: negative on day 55 16:00 The bad: monthly ribbons rejecting the mid band 16:19 Is the November high already in? 17:12 Monthly stochastic: the pivot dropped to near $62,000 18:01 Monthly MACD; the red 5 EMA at $76,500 must hold 18:53 The Daily Hundred: $100 of Bitcoin on Coinbase 19:26 Coinbase trading competition: up to $2 million 20:22 Kalshi November ladder: $82,000 at 55c 20:41 Kalshi: under $72,500 a coin flip, under $75,000 at 76c 21:53 November 7: the setups converge 22:24 Gold: extremely bearish, lower highs under $4,300 24:43 The 200/377 EMA cross on the 12-hour: the eye test 27:14 The three indicators I actually use 27:47 TradingView update: pushed back; lifetime honored in writing 28:24 The 20% code is NOVEMBER while lifetime access lasts 29:14 ENA: bearish under 29.5 cents 33:40 Circle: a bounce to $79 to $80, then $60 34:33 SPY held the 5 EMA, NASDAQ did not 37:16 ZEC: the range; $1,050 is the bottom 38:25 Immigration: make legal easy, zero benefits 40:11 VVSMF and SOX: semis resolve lower 42:00 QQQ: $666 is my corrective target 43:29 Bitcoin's range this week: $76,100 to $80,000 46:22 BE: relative strength; $186 to $218 48:20 BMNR: toward $19 under $25 49:28 Ethereum: the daily 200 simple at $2,161 50:20 COIN: $139 holds or $115 next 52:21 BNB after the hack: $675 is the pivot 54:01 VVV: $19 under $21.16 55:30 You do not need to be perfect to make money 58:04 HYPE: a bounce near $83, then lower; $89 reclaims 1:00:03 Brazil's biggest exchange hacked; the witches 1:00:34 MRVL: a bounce near the weekly 55 or $163 1:01:42 Costco: the best chart of the day 1:03:21 GOOG: a $270 retest, a bounce, then lower 1:05:59 TSM: $385 to $373 before the major bounce 1:07:29 Divergence from October 8? Too many bars apart 1:09:27 Unsexy diversified ETFs for the win 1:10:06 HOOD: a bounce to $91 to $93, then the range low 1:10:56 PWR: a bullish $522 to $722 range 1:13:06 XRP: held $1.25 on the monthly 1:17:09 Tax-loss harvesting season: how I do it 1:18:56 The Krown PCR: the cyan triangle near the lows 1:20:20 CAT: a $650 to $700 bounce, then lower 1:21:40 Solana: $75 to $80 if Bitcoin follows through 1:24:59 Intel: a $75 bounce, then $45 to $50 1:26:05 Bitcoin on the weekly 21; IBIT held the bi-monthly 5 1:27:12 ANIC, the worst chart of the day: buy the indices 1:28:39 Oil: $92 to $94 is the bounce zone 1:30:07 Micron: $780 this month; $740 is the line 1:32:08 LINK: held the September low; $10.65 is the line 1:39:13 VWCE: a dip to 166 is an opportunity 1:40:53 The November open sits 1.3% over the October low 1:47:25 Kalshi election markets: the LA mayor race 1:50:25 Kalshi 2024: right on Trump, wrong on two states 1:53:48 Sign-off: back tomorrow DISCLOSURES General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...