Bitcoin: Did the Election Mark the Low? (he/him)
Bitcoin: Did the Election Mark the Low? (he/him)
18 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 31 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC): A daily close above $80,000 and reclaim of $81,900 would strengthen the rebound; a weekly close below $75,000 would weaken the longer-term outlook.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Consider the setup improved only after a daily close above $2,430; the next potential target is $2,522–$2,585, with support near $2,350.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): A range trade is possible while $81–$82 holds, with potential toward $95; losing that zone risks a move toward $75.
  • SoFi (SOFI): A break above $17.65 could open a move toward $19–$20; without that breakout, it may remain range-bound.
  • Clover Health (CLOV): The outlook remains constructive above $4.10, with a possible near-term test of $5.00–$5.25.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin rebounded above $80,000 after trading below October’s low. The speaker viewed the lack of election-related unrest and greater political certainty as supportive for markets.
  • Short-term signals were described as improving, but the speaker said Bitcoin remained in a daily downtrend until it reclaimed $81,900 on a daily close.
  • The key near-term levels cited were:
    • A daily close above $80,000 to reclaim major moving averages and support the rebound.
    • A two-day close above about $80,350 for further bullish confirmation.
    • A weekly close above $75,000 as the speaker’s longer-term line in the sand.
  • The speaker noted that historically, Bitcoin had not had a positive November after trading below October’s low. He called this the strongest counterpoint to the bullish short-term signals.
  • If the rebound held, he expected a possible move toward the middle or upper end of the recent range, but did not expect an immediate major breakout.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was cautiously bullish in the short term, conditional on Bitcoin holding above $80,000 and reclaiming $81,900.
  • A weekly close below $75,000 would weaken the longer-term outlook. The historical November pattern was cited as a risk, not a certainty.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum rebounded and reclaimed several major moving averages. The speaker said a daily close above $2,430 would improve the setup and could open a move toward $2,522–$2,585.
  • He viewed Ethereum as needing more confirmation than Bitcoin. A pullback would ideally hold above roughly $2,350 to form a higher low.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term upside potential, but considered the reversal unconfirmed.
  • Watch for a daily close above $2,430 and a subsequent higher low near or above $2,350.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker said Zcash had reached the lower end of a trading range around $10.50–$11.50 and bounced.
  • He expected a possible move back toward the range high near $13.50–$13.80. A daily close above that region would strengthen the breakout case.
  • If price reached the upper range and pulled back, he identified about $12.40 as a level where a higher low would be constructive.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed Zcash’s setup as constructive, but still range-bound until it closes above roughly $13.50–$13.80.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker described HYPE as one of the stronger crypto charts and said it was trading around the middle of a range near $81–$82.
  • Holding that area could support another attempt toward the range high near $95. Losing it could bring the price toward the range low around $75.

Takeaways

  • The speaker favored HYPE’s chart over NEAR’s, but treated the near-term outlook as a range trade, not a confirmed breakout.
  • The range’s middle and lower boundaries were the key levels he identified.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker viewed NEAR as weaker than HYPE and Bitcoin, noting that it was below many major moving averages and lacked clear bullish signals.
  • A move above roughly $4.55 was identified as important for improving the setup.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious: NEAR could rise if Bitcoin did, but he saw less independent strength than in HYPE.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO)

  • The speaker said AERO might have a short-term swing low and could rebound toward roughly $0.69.
  • He called the longer-term chart weak. A daily close above about $0.325 was described as a key step toward confirming a reversal; a move below the recent low would undermine the short-term setup.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw possible short-term rebound potential, but did not consider the longer-term trend repaired.

Injective (INJ)

  • INJ showed a possible higher low and bullish divergence, in the speaker’s view.
  • He identified roughly $8.15–$8.30 as a near-term area to test. Reclaiming that region could improve the setup; stronger upside would still depend heavily on Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw conditional short-term upside, with the broader crypto-market trend remaining an important influence.

Zeta (ZETA)

  • The speaker described ZETA as one of the better-performing crypto charts, with a possible higher low and bullish divergence.
  • He identified $28 as an important level for maintaining a longer-term bullish view. A move above roughly $34–$35 could support another test of prior highs.
  • He cautioned that after a sharp rise since July, the asset could spend time consolidating or retracing.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was constructive but not unconditionally bullish: he viewed consolidation as possible and $28 as a key level to watch.

PiVerse (PI Verse)

  • The speaker described the chart as relatively strong compared with many other newer crypto assets, noting that it had risen during a period when many cryptocurrencies were falling.
  • He identified a range of roughly $0.95–$1.36, with price near the middle. A loss of the recent low near $0.95 would weaken the setup.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a range-bound setup with relative strength, while emphasizing that a break below the recent low would be a negative signal.

ORE (ticker as stated)

  • The speaker said ORE could move toward about $3 in the short term, with the prior week’s low serving as a nearby invalidation level.
  • He said a daily close above $2.86 would be needed to confirm a stronger reversal.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw potential short-term upside, but regarded confirmation above $2.86 as important.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • The speaker described LINK as lacking strong independent technical signals. He said a weekly close above about $14.38 would be important for improving the longer-term picture.
  • He said LINK’s prospects would likely depend on Bitcoin’s direction.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious pending confirmation above $14.38; he did not consider the chart independently strong.

Stellar (XLM)

  • The speaker saw potential for a short-term rebound toward roughly $0.175, with a stronger move possibly reaching about $0.185.
  • He described the longer-term chart as still being in a downtrend and identified about $0.2368 as a level needed to substantially improve that picture.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term bounce potential, but not a confirmed longer-term reversal.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • The speaker said MSTR was following Bitcoin but was not as strong during the rebound.
  • He identified approximately $155 as a key level to reclaim. If that happened alongside strength in Bitcoin, he said MSTR could make a more volatile move toward roughly $170–$181.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed MSTR’s near-term direction as dependent on Bitcoin and said reclaiming $155 would improve the setup.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

  • The speaker treated IBIT as a useful Bitcoin-related chart and identified roughly $46.37 as a key level to reclaim.
  • He said a move above that level would correspond to Bitcoin reclaiming about $81,900, which he considered important for reversing the short-term bearish bias.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was conditional on Bitcoin’s confirmation; $46.37 was his cited short-term threshold for IBIT.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • The speaker described Coinbase’s chart as weak, though he said a rebound toward roughly $160–$170 was possible.
  • He said the chart still had substantial work to do before he would consider it repaired.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible short-term bounce, but remained cautious about the broader chart.

QQQ / Nasdaq-100

  • The speaker said QQQ had rallied intraday but given back much of the gain.
  • He identified $683.50 as a short-term level that should hold for a further rebound attempt. A daily close above $700 would improve the outlook and could open a move toward $715–$720.
  • He remained concerned about the broader monthly chart and said the technology sector could continue to lag.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed QQQ as cautious to bearish unless it reclaimed $700 on a daily close. He saw $683.50 as a near-term support level.

Nasdaq

  • The speaker said the Nasdaq had held near its daily 200-day moving average but had not yet reclaimed its short-term trend average.
  • He identified about $29,500 as a possible rebound area and $30,178 as a more important level for improving the broader setup.
  • He expected the index could move sideways for the rest of the month, with further downside risk more relevant later if the rebound failed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible short-term bounce, but regarded the market as unconfirmed until it reclaimed about $30,178.

S&P 500 / SPY Futures

  • The speaker viewed the broader market as holding up better than technology shares and said the market’s low might already be in.
  • He identified a key weekly support level spoken in the transcript as “75,75”; the exact formatting of that number is unclear in the transcript. He said the level needed to hold on a weekly closing basis.
  • He also cited the possibility of hidden bullish signals if that support held.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was more constructive on the broader market than on QQQ, but made that view conditional on the cited weekly support holding.

SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR)

  • The speaker said XAR might be finding a local low and could rebound in the short term.
  • He described the longer-term process as potentially taking several months, with a further decline toward roughly $185–$190 still possible before a more durable low formed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term rebound potential, but said the longer-term recovery could be slow and that further downside remained possible.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The speaker said Tesla might rebound from around $375, but described the weekly trend as still bearish.
  • He identified $413.15 as an important level to reclaim. If the recent low broke, he said the price could move toward roughly $300–$315.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a possible short-term bounce, but considered the broader chart weak unless Tesla reclaimed $413.15.

Clover Health (CLOV)

  • The speaker viewed CLOV as broadly bullish while it remained above $4.10.
  • He identified roughly $5.00–$5.25 as a possible move back toward the upper end of its range. He said a stronger reversal could eventually point toward $7.50–$8.00, but framed that as conditional.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was constructive above $4.10, with a near-term range test possible.

Natera (NTRA)

  • The speaker viewed NTRA as having likely formed a swing high and expected it to consolidate sideways or lower rather than quickly make new highs.
  • He said a rebound toward $390–$400 was possible, but identified roughly $340 as a possible later support area, with about $280 as a more adverse scenario.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was cautious near term, despite describing the longer-term chart as strong.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

  • The speaker liked TTWO’s bounce from its weekly 200-day moving average.
  • He said a weekly close above about $215.50 would support the view that the recent low was a higher low, with a possible move toward $250–$265 afterward.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was constructive if TTWO closed above $215.50; that level was the key confirmation point he cited.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The speaker described PLTR as strong over the longer term but said it had rejected the top of its recent range and was moving back toward the middle near $160.
  • He said further weakness toward roughly $144–$145 was possible before a higher low formed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker considered the longer-term setup positive but the near-term range correction unfinished.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The speaker said SOFI was approaching its daily 200-day moving average around $17.65.
  • A break above that level could, in his view, support a move toward roughly $19–$20. He said failure there could leave the stock in its recent range.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a potential breakout setup, with $17.65 as the key level to watch.

Datadog (DDOG)

  • The speaker said DDOG had fallen sharply and might bounce from the area around $220, potentially toward $233–$245.
  • He emphasized that a rebound would not necessarily mean the downtrend had reversed, and described the broader chart as weak.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw bounce potential but not a confirmed reversal; he remained cautious about the broader technology and data-center-related theme.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • The speaker said MRVL might find support around $150–$155 and then rebound toward $175–$180.
  • He cautioned that even a larger rebound could leave the stock in a bearish broader trend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed a short-term bounce as possible, but did not consider it evidence of a durable reversal.

Intel (INTC)

  • The speaker said Intel had made new lows and described the move as unfavorable.
  • He had previously expected a bounce near $60–$65, but noted that the stock appeared to be moving lower instead.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious; the expected support-area bounce had not yet been confirmed.

Google (GOOG)

  • The speaker expected GOOG to rebound from its current area, potentially toward the weekly five-day moving average.
  • He identified roughly $320–$323 as a key resistance area. A rejection there would leave the broader setup vulnerable.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term rally potential, but did not describe the move as a confirmed reversal.

CVS Health (CVS)

  • The speaker expected CVS to rebound from its current area, potentially toward $84–$85.
  • He characterized this as a likely bounce rather than a confirmed change in the broader trend.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term upside potential toward $84–$85, while distinguishing a bounce from a reversal.

ROBO / ROBT ETFs

  • The speaker said he owned both robotics-related ETFs and had shifted more of his allocation to ROBT, which he said had been performing better than ROBO.
  • He said he had added to his positions as prices fell, but also warned that the weekly trend was down and that a move toward $70 remained possible.

Takeaways

  • The speaker disclosed that he was holding and adding to these ETFs, while acknowledging further downside risk. He favored ROBT over ROBO based on recent relative performance.

IBB and XBI ETFs

  • The speaker said he added to IBB and XBI during the recent decline and described healthcare and biotech ETFs as positions he continued to hold.
  • He favored sector ETFs over individual biotech stocks because, in his view, it was difficult to predict which individual companies would be the winners.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s approach was to hold and add to sector exposure rather than select individual biotech stocks. This was his stated strategy, not a personalized recommendation.

Gold

  • The speaker expected gold to bounce, citing roughly $4,100–$4,170 as a possible rebound zone.
  • Despite that short-term upside, he retained a bearish broader view and described the move as potentially corrective.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was short-term bullish on a rebound, but bearish longer term. He viewed the cited range as a possible point for the bounce to stall.

Silver

  • The speaker described silver as more bearish than gold, while allowing for a short-term rebound.
  • He said a move toward roughly $55–$60 was possible, but viewed the broader chart as weak.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw rebound potential but a bearish broader setup.

Oil

  • The speaker said oil did not offer him a clear trading edge because it is strongly influenced by geopolitical developments.
  • He mentioned a possible move toward $84 followed by a bounce, but expressed no strong conviction.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was uncertain on oil and emphasized geopolitical risk as a factor he could not reliably forecast.

Technology, Data Centers, and AI-Related Stocks

  • The speaker said technology shares were weaker than the broader market and discussed political pressure around large technology companies and opposition to data centers.
  • He linked the weakness in companies such as DDOG, MRVL, and Intel to the broader technology and data-center-related selloff.
  • He suggested that market rotation away from technology could continue even if the wider market held up.

Takeaways

  • The discussion pointed to relative weakness in technology and data-center-related names, but did not establish that the entire market had entered a sustained downturn.

Broad Market and Election-Related Theme

  • The speaker argued that markets often respond positively to greater political certainty, noting that there had been no major contestation or civil unrest following the election.
  • He cited historical returns suggesting markets had performed best under a divided Congress and least well under a Democratic majority, while also stressing that markets generally rise over time.
  • He described the historical comparisons as context rather than a precise forecast.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed political stability and reduced uncertainty as supportive, but did not claim that election outcomes alone determine market direction.
  • He saw the broader market as potentially more resilient than technology shares in the near term.

Bitcoin-Linked Trading Competition

  • The speaker mentioned a Coinbase trading competition, but said it had been canceled during the broadcast.
  • Before the cancellation, he remarked that trading volume could be used to compete for a prize and speculated about wash trading. This was commentary about the competition, not a conventional investment thesis.

Takeaways

  • The competition was described as canceled, so it did not represent an available opportunity in the transcript.
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Video Description
Question of the day: did the election just mark the low? Last night Bitcoin swept the October low ($76,195) to $75,649 and ripped 7% in one session. 🟪 LIFETIME ACCESS, STILL OPEN: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code NOVEMBER until TradingView's change takes effect (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: back above $80,000 after the midterms 0:22 Under the October low, but the short-term signals say rally 0:40 Why Bitcoin rallies with the blue team winning 2:41 QQQ: $683.50 holds it, $700 on a close matters 3:30 QQQ monthly: bearish engulfing, a rally to the red 5 EMA 4:16 S&P futures: the 7,575 low on a weekly close is everything 5:30 Detrick: split Congress 15.1% vs a Democrat majority 6.7% 6:57 Republican president, Democrat Senate: the worst combination 7:12 Bitcoin: daily, 6h, 12h and 4h bullish divergence confirmed 7:33 Reclaim $78,700 and every moving average above $80,000 8:00 Above $80,000 there is no daily silver cross down 8:43 The ugly stat: no green November after breaking the October low 9:10 Still a lower high: $81,900 on a daily close is out of the woods 9:41 My line in the sand stays $75,000 on a weekly close 10:00 The Daily Hundred: $100 of Bitcoin on Coinbase, filled live 10:17 Coinbase trading competition: the categories, then it ends on air 11:37 Two-day: hidden bullish divergence; $80,369 reclaims everything 12:19 A daily close above $81,900 flips my short-term bias to bullish 13:11 The 5-day silver cross: the biggest signal on the board, Friday 13:48 A 5-day close above $80,450 = a real major low attempt 14:00 A dip to $78,000 or $79,000 would be a buy for me 14:33 Stochastic: daily turned from the extreme zone, first since September 15:14 Range play: the range low is in; the middle, not a breakout 16:10 Reverend Ribbons: reclaim the $80,000 mid band, target $83,000 to $83,400 17:21 Kalshi November: $82,500 at 79c, $85,000 at 57c, $87,500 at 40c 18:11 Below $75,000 at 49c: I want the closures first 18:55 Golden cross roadmap: day 57, +2.3% vs a +20% median 19:55 Gold: a bounce to $4,100 to $4,170, still bearish 21:45 Every November under the October low, chart by chart 24:08 Has a red October ever had a green November? Once, 2014 24:37 MicroStrategy: $155 is the lower high that matters 26:27 Ethereum: $24.30 reclaims, $25.85 target, then a higher low 28:45 The next 10 days: up to $83,000 to $84,000 if the closes land 29:44 S&P: a 5% correction already; 7,819.5 is the reclaim 32:27 Zcash: the range low at $1,120, $1,380 breaks it out 34:30 Hype: $81 mid-range higher low, $95 top, $75 if it breaks 36:12 The two numbers for tonight: $80,000 daily, $80,343 two-day 40:47 Blue or red, the stock market goes up 41:23 The low was in last week? The low was literally yesterday 42:55 Tesla: $375 low, $413.15 confirms, $300 to $315 if it fails 47:33 Nasdaq: the swing low for the month; 30,178 is the line 50:02 Datadog: data-center names cooked; a bounce, not a reversal 55:16 Reverend Ribbons: the next mid-band reclaim is usually the big one 56:47 Short-term bias flips bullish if it all confirms tonight 59:00 Indicator sale: 20% off with code NOVEMBER until the TradingView change 1:05:36 Diversifying: I bought more IBB and XBI 1:07:01 Sell the losers: tax-loss harvesting time 1:15:31 Palantir: a $160 bounce, the next low $144 to $145 1:16:21 November view: zero green Novembers after the October low, until $81,900 1:19:04 If the closures fail: below $70,000 and an ugly 2 to 4 months 1:22:53 Coinbase stock: at the one-year lows, bearish 1:23:54 If Bitcoin bottomed, the strong alts bottomed; Link needs $14.38 1:26:03 Marvell and Intel: semis hit, $150 then $175 to $180 1:28:50 Free courses: TA 101, Options 101, Central Command 1:29:42 THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK: close above $80,000; $81,900 ends the downtrend 1:30:38 Two-day $80,350, three-day Thursday, five-day Friday; $81,900 next week DISCLOSURES General market commentary, not personalized investment advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. I may hold positions discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Some links are affiliate links.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...