Bitcoin: Did the Election Mark the Low? $81,900 Decides Next Week
Bitcoin: Did the Election Mark the Low? $81,900 Decides Next Week
10 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube21 min 35 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as short-term bearish until it closes above $81,900 daily; a close above $80,000 is an earlier reversal signal, while $78,000–$79,000 was identified as a potential buy zone.
  • If BTC confirms a reclaim, watch $83,000–$84,000 as a possible near-term target and resistance area; failure to hold key levels could expose a drop below $70,000.
  • The S&P 500 (SPX/SPY) outlook is cautiously positive near term, but the analysis offered no specific equity picks and flagged a possible further correction in Q1.
  • Coinbase (COIN) was mentioned only as a sponsor, not as an investment recommendation.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host’s view was short-term bearish until Bitcoin reclaims $81,900 on a daily close. He said a reclaim would remove the daily downtrend and could make him bullish across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.
  • He viewed a daily close above $80,000 as an important near-term signal. In his analysis, it could reclaim several moving averages and support a potential reversal; a close above about $80,350 was the corresponding level he cited for the two-day chart.
  • Other levels and scenarios mentioned:
    • A move toward $83,000–$83,400 was a possible near-term target if Bitcoin reclaimed a technical indicator.
    • The host expected Bitcoin could rise toward $83,000–$84,000 over the next 10 days, while anticipating possible resistance or a pullback there.
    • He said a dip to $78,000–$79,000 would be a buy for him personally.
    • If Bitcoin failed to hold the key levels, he warned of a potentially “ugly” next two to four months, with a move below $70,000 as a possibility.
  • The main bearish counterpoint was that Bitcoin had traded below October’s low. The host said this had historically been associated with a negative November, while acknowledging there were few past examples and at least one exception.
  • He also noted that several shorter-term momentum indicators had turned upward, while higher-timeframe indicators remained corrective. His interpretation was that Bitcoin might trade within a range rather than break out immediately.
  • The host disclosed that he personally bought Bitcoin during the stream. He also mentioned Coinbase as his trading platform sponsor, so that platform reference is not an independent endorsement.

Takeaways

  • Treat $81,900 on a daily close as the host’s key trend-confirmation level; he did not consider a short-term rally alone proof that the downtrend had ended.
  • The discussion supports a conditional, not unconditional, bullish view: the host wanted to see daily and two-day closes above key levels before becoming more confident.
  • The potential upside and downside levels above are the host’s scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. The October-low pattern and the possibility of a drop below $70,000 were the specific risks he highlighted.

U.S. Equities and the S&P 500 (SPX; SPY ETF)

  • The host cited historical data attributed to Ryan Detrick on median stock-market returns by congressional makeup:
    • Split or closely divided Congress: about 15.1%
    • Democratic majority: about 6.7%
  • He described those figures as historical context and said markets tend to rise over time, but characterized the outlook as potentially a gradual grind higher rather than an exceptionally strong run.
  • He said a Republican president paired with a Democratic Senate had been the worst combination for forward stock-market returns in the historical data he referenced.
  • On the S&P 500, he said the index had already fallen about 5% from the October open to its November low. He did not expect another leg of correction before a rally attempt, and said a further correction might not come until Q1 of the following year.
  • He referred to a reclaim level for SPY that appears in the transcript as roughly $578.19; the spoken level is unclear in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The host’s equity-market outlook was cautiously positive in the near term, but based partly on historical political-cycle data rather than a specific stock recommendation.
  • The cited return figures are historical medians, not forecasts. The discussion did not identify individual stocks or provide a specific equity-sector recommendation.
  • The host acknowledged the possibility of a further correction, particularly around Q1, so his view was not that equities would rise uninterrupted.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • Coinbase was mentioned as the host’s trading platform sponsor. He said the sponsor link offered 80% off trading fees and disclosed that he had just purchased Bitcoin on the platform.
  • The transcript contained no investment analysis of Coinbase shares, no price target for COIN, and no recommendation to buy or sell the stock.

Takeaways

  • The Coinbase mention was a sponsorship and platform reference, not a stock thesis. The promotional fee offer should be considered separately from any decision to invest in Coinbase.
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Video Description
Question of the day: did the election just mark the low? Bitcoin swept the October low to $75,649 and ripped 7% in one session; the close decides. A daily close above $80,000 keeps the reversal alive, $81,900 ends the daily downtrend; inside: the stat against it (no green November after breaking the October low, 0 of 5), the worst Washington combination for stocks (we just got it), the two-day at $80,369, the 5-day silver cross closing Friday at $80,450, Kalshi's November ladder, the next 10 days, and what happens if the closes fail. 🟪 LIFETIME ACCESS, STILL OPEN: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code NOVEMBER until TradingView's change takes effect (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🟪 Unlock My Indicators & Programs → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 🟧 Trade on ByBit (Inverse Perps & High Liquidity) → https://partner.bybit.com/b/Cave ⬛ BloFin (No KYC + 15% Discount) → https://partner.blofin.com/d/Reduction ⚡ META SIGNALS — Code KROWN for 10% Off → https://metasignals.io/nft ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ 🏔️ Join the Cave (Discord) → https://discord.gg/3PJDRbYw44 ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ABOUT THIS CHANNEL Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with 15+ years of experience. This channel delivers daily Bitcoin and macro market analysis using a systematic five-layer framework: Trend, Volatility, Structure, Momentum, and Risk — the same methodology used on the trading floor. No hype. Data-driven analysis with proof of trade. #Bitcoin #Stocks #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 Question of the day: did the election just mark the low? 0:37 Under the October low, but the short-term signals say rally 1:32 Who holds Washington: Detrick's table, and the worst combination 2:55 The charts: daily, 6h, 12h and 4h bullish divergence confirmed 3:43 Above $80,000: every moving average, no silver cross down 4:26 The stat: no green November after breaking the October low 4:53 Still a lower high until $81,900; my line stays $75,000 5:43 The Daily Hundred: $100 of Bitcoin on Coinbase 6:08 Two-day: a bear trap if it closes above $80,369 6:50 A daily close above $81,900 flips my short-term bias 7:42 The 5-day silver cross: the biggest signal, closes Friday at $80,450 9:05 Stochastic momentum turns, first since September 9:45 A range play: the range low is in, not a breakout 10:42 Reverend Ribbons: reclaim $80,000, target $83,000 to $83,400 11:19 Kalshi: $82,500 at 79c, $85,000 at 57c, under $75,000 at 49c 13:27 The golden cross roadmap: day 57, +2.3% vs a +20% median 14:09 Every November under the October low, chart by chart 16:41 A red October with a green November? Once, 2014 17:15 The next 10 days: up, $83,000 to $84,000 if the Nov 4 close holds $80,000 18:09 The S&P correction already happened; 7,819.5 is the reclaim 19:17 If the closes fail: below $70,000, an ugly two to four months 19:56 The short-term outlook: a close above $80,000, $81,900 ends the downtrend 20:52 Two-day $80,350, three-day Thursday, five-day Friday DISCLOSURES General market commentary and education, published to the public on a regular schedule and not tailored to anyone. Nothing here is a recommendation that you buy, sell, hold or size any security, commodity, contract or digital asset. I am not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer or commodity trading advisor, and I am not registered with the SEC, any state securities regulator, the CFTC or the NFA. Viewer charts discussed on stream are discussed as charts of the asset, not as advice about anyone's position; Super Chats and memberships support the channel and a place in the queue, they do not buy advice. I may hold positions in assets discussed and may trade them at any time without notice; where I know I hold something, I say so. Trading and investing carry substantial risk of loss, including loss of all capital; options, futures, perpetuals, leveraged products and event contracts can lose more than the amount invested. Statistics, backtests, paper trades and model outputs are hypothetical, have inherent limitations and do not predict future results. Results and testimonials, where mentioned, are individual experiences and are not typical. Some links are affiliate or referral links; I may earn a commission or credit if you use them, at no extra cost to you. Nothing here is an offer or solicitation where unlawful; do not use any platform that is not available to residents of your region. Consult a licensed professional about your own situation before acting.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...