Bitcoin and Stocks: The Last Time This Happened Was 1989
Bitcoin and Stocks: The Last Time This Happened Was 1989
16 hours ago•Krown•@eckrown
YouTube1 hr 33 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Bitcoin (BTC): Stay cautious below $81,000; a daily close below $77,000 keeps downside momentum intact, while the mid-to-upper $60,000s may offer a longer-term dollar-cost-averaging opportunity—not a confirmed bottom.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Treat any near-term bounce toward $187 as tentative; a weekly close above $210 would improve the short-term outlook, while $125–$140 is a potential deeper pullback zone.
  • Intel (INTC): Consider the rebound scenario cautiously: the speaker saw possible upside to $70–$80 by year-end, but said a durable bottom is not yet confirmed.
  • RDW: The chart remains bearish after breaking $8.35; a bounce toward $10 may not change the outlook, and a weekly close above $12 is the stated level for reassessment.
  • QQQ: A short-term bounce toward $690–$705 is possible, but the speaker flagged $550 as a conditional first-quarter 2027 buying area if a deeper pullback develops.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker’s short-term bias remained bearish while Bitcoin was below $81,000. Reclaiming that level would, in his view, reverse the short- and medium-term trend.
  • He said a daily close below $77,000 would keep momentum pointed down. A close above the prior day’s high—and preferably the prior Friday’s high—would be an initial sign of a possible local low.
  • A bounce could reach the 21-day EMA just above $78,000; he also mentioned potential toward the 55-day EMA. He cautioned that a move back to the red 5 EMA near $76,500 would not by itself change the trend.
  • He identified $74,500 as a level that could flip a two-day momentum signal, while the weekly and biweekly signals were still pointing down.
  • For a deeper pullback, he discussed the mid-to-upper $60,000s, including the weekly 200-day moving average near $68,000 and a monthly 55 EMA near $65,600.
  • Longer term, he expected Bitcoin to be higher within a year and said he was increasing his dollar-cost averaging as the price fell.

Takeaways

  • Treat $81,000 as the speaker’s key short-term trend-reversal level; below it, his bias remained cautious.
  • He viewed the mid-to-upper $60,000s as a possible area for heavier long-term DCA, not as a confirmed bottom.
  • A bounce alone would not confirm a trend reversal; he emphasized reclaiming key highs and forming a higher low.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The speaker expected a short-term bounce, potentially toward a price gap near $187, but stressed that a bounce would not necessarily mean a reversal.
  • He said a weekly close above about $210 would be needed to make him more bullish on the short-term chart.
  • On longer time frames, he saw bearish signals and said that, if they held through year-end, a possible next low could be around $125–$140.
  • He said he would consider investing in NVIDIA himself around $135, but noted that he did not own the stock directly, only through ETFs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presented a contrast between a possible near-term rebound and meaningful longer-term downside risk.
  • $210 was the speaker’s stated weekly level for a more constructive short-term view; $125–$140 was his potential pullback zone.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) and MSTZ

  • The speaker described MSTR as having further downside potential.
  • On MSTZ, an inverse leveraged product tied to MicroStrategy, he thought a move to $5 would require a very large and volatile decline in MSTR. He considered roughly $4–$4.25 more plausible.
  • He warned that leveraged ETFs can lose value through volatility decay over time, even when the underlying asset moves in the expected direction.
  • He said he personally would avoid leveraged ETFs in either direction unless able to time an unusually large volatility move.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bearish view on MSTR did not translate into confidence that MSTZ would reach the quoted $5 level.
  • His main caution was that leveraged products can behave differently from their underlying asset over time.

REW (Ultra-Short Technology ETF)

  • The speaker identified REW as an ultra-short technology fund and thought it might have short-term upside, which would correspond to weakness in technology stocks.
  • He mentioned a possible move toward $15–$16, and said a daily 200-day moving average near $15.50 was a level to watch.
  • He also noted that a pullback in REW toward $12.50 was possible.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw potential for a near-term rise in REW, but his outlook was based on a technical setup and included the possibility of a pullback.
  • He did not present the move as a confirmed longer-term trend.

RDW

  • The speaker was strongly bearish on RDW after a breakdown below $8.35 on the weekly chart.
  • He allowed that the stock could bounce, possibly toward $10, but viewed that as potentially a lower high.
  • He said he would reconsider his bearish bias after a weekly close above $12.

Takeaways

  • In the speaker’s analysis, a bounce toward $10 would not by itself repair the chart.
  • $12 on a weekly close was his stated level for reconsidering the bearish view.

Intel (INTC)

  • After falling to around $50, the speaker expected a bounce and thought the stock could reach $70–$80 by year-end.
  • He cited several longer-term moving averages as potential support and said he did not expect further downside for the rest of the year.
  • He still held about 25% of his prior position and said he might buy more near current levels.
  • He did not identify a confirmed long-term bottom, saying the chart would need to develop further.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was constructive on a near-term rebound, but he left the longer-term trend unresolved.
  • $70–$80 by year-end was his stated bounce scenario, not a confirmed target.

QQQ

  • The speaker expected a short-term bounce, potentially toward $690–$705.
  • He cited weakening signals on the six-month and quarterly charts and said a deeper pullback could bring QQQ near $550 in the first quarter of 2027.
  • He described that lower area as a major buying opportunity for himself and said he had reduced some exposure.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious on QQQ’s longer-term setup despite the possibility of a near-term rebound.
  • The speaker’s potential $550 area was a conditional pullback scenario; he did not call it a certainty.

SPY / Broad U.S. Market

  • The speaker expected a short-term bounce in traditional markets but was not convinced it would restore the broader uptrend.
  • For SPY, he said a weekly close above the prior week’s high would make him more constructive and could open the way to a retest of the highs.
  • He said a deeper correction in early 2027 was possible, while distinguishing that from a confirmed multi-year bear market.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term bounce view did not eliminate his concern about a broader correction.
  • He treated a weekly reclaim of the prior week’s high as an important condition for turning more bullish.

Semiconductor Exposure (SOX / SOXS)

  • In response to a question about “SOX,” the speaker said the underlying semiconductor market appeared likely to bounce, which could mean downside for an inverse semiconductor position.
  • He thought that the semiconductor index may have put in a short-term high around $81.50 and could move sideways or down from there.
  • The exact product or ticker discussed was not clear in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view favored a near-term rebound in semiconductor stocks, not an increase in bearish semiconductor exposure.
  • The specific instrument was unclear, so the quoted levels should not be treated as applying to a particular ETF without confirming the ticker.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The speaker identified $413.15 as a key level. He said a move above it would improve the chart and could leave room for a retest of the highs.
  • He also noted that Tesla was reclaiming major moving averages, but said the move needed to hold through the week.
  • As a risk factor, he cited the political attention around Elon Musk and the possibility of legal or political pressure affecting his companies.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed $413.15 as an important technical threshold, with a weekly hold needed to strengthen the bullish case.
  • He also highlighted political and legal uncertainty as a potential headwind.

IREN (referred to as “iron” in the transcript)

  • The speaker saw bullish divergence and said the stock was in a potential bounce area.
  • He mentioned possible short-term levels around $24–$26.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supported a possible short-term rebound, but did not establish that a longer-term reversal was underway.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The speaker said RKLB had already made an aggressive bounce, reaching the daily 21 EMA.
  • He expected a short-term pullback toward roughly $61–$63, then said a higher low followed by a reclaim of $61.12 on a daily close could support a stronger reversal.
  • Based on his “vibes” assessment, he thought the stock could move toward $67–$68, while describing the longer-term chart as difficult to favor.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s reversal scenario depended on the pullback holding as a higher low and the stock reclaiming the cited level.
  • $67–$68 was a possible short-term move, not confirmation of a longer-term uptrend.

Bloom Energy (BE; ticker as stated)

  • The speaker saw multiple bullish divergences and thought the stock could rebound toward its 21 EMA.
  • He identified about $2.20 as a level that would need to be reclaimed on a daily close to strengthen the reversal case.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed the setup as a possible bounce, with $2.20 as a stated confirmation level.
  • The transcript’s price and ticker reference may be ambiguous; confirm the instrument before relying on the levels.

SMH

  • The speaker expected a further bounce in SMH, potentially toward $505–$510, and said a move toward $540 was possible.
  • He identified $571 as the level that would make the picture more clearly bullish.
  • He also cautioned that the longer-term chart still had risks and characterized the move as potentially corrective.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw room for a rebound but did not consider the broader trend clearly repaired.
  • $571 was his stated threshold for a more convincing bullish shift.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

  • The speaker said CRSP appeared to be in a long-running consolidation dating back to 2022, but stressed that this did not mean a breakout was imminent.
  • He identified $63.50 as a nearer-term level and $91.50 as a larger breakout threshold.
  • A move below about $38 would, in his view, undermine the accumulation case.
  • He noted that biotech stocks can move sharply on company announcements.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was that CRSP may be consolidating, but it could remain range-bound for an extended period.
  • He highlighted $91.50 as a major breakout level and $38 as a downside level that would weaken the setup.

Bausch Health (BHC)

  • The speaker thought BHC could retest the top of its range near $14–$15.
  • He noted that the stock had formed a higher low and said a further higher low could support a stronger reversal attempt.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favored a possible move toward $14–$15, while acknowledging that the longer-term chart was difficult to interpret.

Ubiquiti (UI)

  • The speaker viewed Ubiquiti’s chart as having the potential for a longer-term breakout.
  • He said a monthly close above about $663.05 would be an important confirmation level and suggested a possible move toward $750–$800 over a longer period.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s bullish scenario depended on a monthly close above the cited level; he did not present the breakout as confirmed.

Starbucks (SBUX)

  • The speaker described Starbucks as one of the stronger-looking charts discussed.
  • He said it could retest highs around $117–$120, with a possible longer-term move toward $160–$170 if it broke out.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed Starbucks as a potential longer-term breakout candidate, conditional on clearing the stated resistance area.

Gold

  • The speaker remained bearish on gold over longer time frames and expected Bitcoin to outperform gold overall.
  • He still allowed for a short-term bounce in gold.
  • Looking at the Bitcoin-to-gold relationship, he said he believed a macro low was already in, though a short-term pullback remained possible.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view favored Bitcoin over gold over a longer horizon, while allowing that gold could rally in the short term.
  • He mentioned potentially switching from gold toward Bitcoin on a pullback, but said he did not currently hold gold.

Silver

  • The speaker was bearish on silver over the next year to year and a half, while allowing for a short-term bounce.
  • He said silver could rebound toward $55, possibly $60.
  • For a longer-term decline, he mentioned the low $40s and, in a worse scenario, the mid-$30s.

Takeaways

  • The speaker separated a possible short-term rebound from his bearish longer-term view.
  • The $55–$60 bounce area and the low-$40s to mid-$30s downside scenario were his stated levels.

XRP

  • The speaker said XRP had approached his earlier downside area near $1.05–$1.07 and expected a bounce attempt around current levels.
  • He mentioned $1.15–$1.17 as a possible bounce area, but said that would not by itself reverse the downtrend.
  • He identified about $1.34 as a level above which the daily trend would improve, and $1.55 as the important weekly level for a confirmed trend reversal.
  • If XRP made a new low, he said $0.85–$0.90 was a possible area.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw a potential bounce, but regarded XRP as needing a substantial recovery to confirm a reversal.
  • $1.55 on a weekly close was his key confirmation level; a new low could expose $0.85–$0.90.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker said he did not think Solana had bottomed and expected it to move closer to $70.
  • He described a broad possible range of roughly $70–$125, and said the best-case scenario might be a higher low above $70.
  • He expressed skepticism about a renewed altcoin season.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious: he expected more downside before a potential base, rather than treating current levels as a confirmed bottom.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

  • The speaker was strongly bearish, citing a series of lower highs and weakness across both bull- and bear-market conditions.
  • He allowed for a possible bounce near a prior low, but said that would not constitute a reversal.

Takeaways

  • The discussion did not identify a specific price target; the speaker’s view was that any bounce could remain temporary.

Monero (XMR)

  • The speaker said Monero had not made the lower weekly high suggested by a viewer, but saw bearish divergence and expected a pullback.
  • He said a move toward $540–$550 was possible, regardless of Bitcoin’s direction.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected a potential pullback toward $540–$550, while noting that his view was not based on a Bitcoin forecast.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker treated ZEC as being in a range, with resistance near $1,369 and support around $1,050.
  • After a rejection near the upper end, he expected a move back toward the lower end of the range, while allowing for a potential bounce there.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s analysis suggested range-bound risk, with $1,050 as the key support area to watch.
  • He did not treat a bounce from support as proof of a lasting trend reversal.

Injective (INJ)

  • The speaker said INJ had been stronger than he expected and saw potential to retest around $9.
  • A close above a prior high could, in his view, open a move toward $12–$12.50.
  • He noted that the token’s strength stood out while Bitcoin was weak.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw short-term upside potential, but conditioned a larger move on clearing resistance.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker thought HYPE could bounce toward $78–$80, but said that would not resolve the broader chart concerns.
  • He saw a possible pullback toward the mid-to-low $60s, and said a five-day correction signal would become clearer around the next candle close.
  • He described the longer-term setup as potentially forming a higher low after a correction.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view allowed for both a short-term bounce and a deeper pullback; neither scenario was presented as confirmed.
  • He viewed a correction as potentially consistent with a longer-term higher-low structure.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • In response to a question about a possible Bitcoin pullback into the $65,000–$68,000 area, the speaker said LINK could fall toward roughly $7.25–$8.25.
  • He described LINK as relatively weak.

Takeaways

  • The quoted LINK range was conditional on a further Bitcoin decline; the speaker did not present it as a standalone target.

USO

  • The speaker expected a possible short-term bounce toward about $150, but thought USO may have formed a major high.
  • He said a subsequent move toward $120–$125 was possible.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view was cautious overall despite the potential for a near-term bounce.
  • $120–$125 was his stated downside area, not a guaranteed target.
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Video Description
Question of the day: do you trust this bounce? After the first 4% drop in three months, the S&P 500 closed lower inside a month 14 of 17 times. 🟪 LIFETIME ACCESS, STILL OPEN: 20% off every lifetime indicator plan with code NOVEMBER until TradingView's change takes effect (Krown Pivots, the LTI Tool, the Trading Bible - $1,497) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/ 🟨 KALSHI: Prediction Markets - Trade $50 In Volume, Get Up To $500 In Trading Credit → https://kalshi.com/r/erickrown 📗 FREE: My Complete TA Ultimate Beginners Program (moving averages, crosses, trending higher lows, from scratch) → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/ta101 🔵 COINBASE: $250 Deposit Bonus + 80% Trading Fee Reduction → https://coinbase.com/aff/krown 📈 TRADINGVIEW: the charts in this video (affiliate link) → https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=11546 ⬛ Build Your Own AI Trading Agent For FREE — Full Tutorial → https://krown-trading.teachable.com/p/cpro ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ #Bitcoin #BTC #investing CHAPTERS 0:00 We are live: Bitcoin at a new low, the stock market high 0:46 Q&A: the volatility squeeze before the dump 2:05 Taking profit on the bounce: what I am actually selling 4:00 Stocks: a 4% drop then a two-day 4% bounce, the ten priors since 2000 6:22 A week after those bounces: the drawdown 6:56 My corrective target on QQQ: about 630 8:20 Bitcoin touched the 200-day: where I put the heavier DCAs 9:51 IBIT and the futures vs spot: the Friday close 11:01 Coinbase: options are coming; what I trade there 12:26 The shock: a 4% day within 2% of the high, once before (October 1989); the four cases 14:13 Raising fresh powder: keeping 30% of the positions 15:02 Bitcoin: the levels, and the only way this reverses ($81,900) 16:34 Kalshi: the November ladder, and a live trade 17:45 Under the October low: the five Novembers, a median 15% more 19:20 Kalshi: $50 in volume, up to $500 in credit, link below 20:05 Confirming a local low: the daily close I need 21:14 Stochastic momentum: daily, 5-day and 10-day 22:32 Today's read in one line 23:01 Q&A: RSI vs MACD divergence 24:41 The Cave: always a good time to join 25:48 Nvidia weekly and monthly: the next low 125 to 140 28:25 MSTZ to $5? 30:11 Strategy (MSTR): the bearish case 30:29 REW 31:45 Kalshi credit not received: what to do 32:53 Strategy: a daily short at 128 34:08 Trading Bible lifetime access: what it includes 35:00 TradingView update: the date moves to February 36:17 Bitcoin: the next move is down, but no new lows 37:54 RDW: is the bottom in? 41:06 XRP: lower to go? 1.05 to 1.07, then a bounce 44:46 Intel: bounce levels into year end 46:21 Speculative ETFs I am in 47:01 SOXX daily 48:00 QQQ: my take and timeframes 49:53 BE daily: a bounce to the 21 EMA? 51:56 Tesla 53:55 IREN, then RKLB 56:53 Taking profit at the 21 EMA: follow the plan 58:01 AI decoding animal language 59:46 Solana daily and weekly: time to buy? 1:04:37 A multi-year stock market downturn? 1:05:41 Monero: macro lower highs 1:08:07 INJ 1:09:11 BHC 1:11:15 If the Nasdaq drops, where does Bitcoin go? About 66 1:12:31 Reverend Ribbons with pivots: how I use them 1:16:02 AI models, tokens and IQ distributions 1:18:47 SMH weekly: the bounce first 1:22:17 A daily with bullish divergence: 10.50 to 10.80, then 11 1:32:35 HYPE 1:34:52 Moving Bitcoin to another entity 1:37:44 A real breakout early next year over 118 to 120 1:38:36 The number: $68,028 1:39:26 Bitcoin: the next area of interest down, and a year out 1:40:58 Where the bulk of my DCAs go: 60 to the 55 EMA at 65,600 1:42:08 Bi-monthly bearish divergence: 170 to 175 over two to six months 1:43:05 How far down does Bitcoin come on this move? 1:44:57 Chainlink if Bitcoin hits 65 to 68 1:46:03 USO 1:47:36 Bitcoin for the next two to three months 1:50:32 Zcash: the 13/34 cross 1:52:12 Gold: bearish over the next year or two 1:52:50 HYPE, and the sign-off DISCLOSURES General market commentary and education, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or size anything. I am not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss; statistics and backtests are hypothetical and do not predict results. Some links are affiliate links. Consult a licensed professional before acting.
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By @eckrown

Former NYSE Market Maker turned full-time Bitcoin, Gold & SPX trader/investor. I teach the systematic, data-driven frameworks I ...