Question of the day: do you trust this bounce? After the first 4% drop in three months, the S&P 500 closed lower inside a month 14 of 17 times.
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#Bitcoin #BTC #investing
CHAPTERS
0:00 We are live: Bitcoin at a new low, the stock market high
0:46 Q&A: the volatility squeeze before the dump
2:05 Taking profit on the bounce: what I am actually selling
4:00 Stocks: a 4% drop then a two-day 4% bounce, the ten priors since 2000
6:22 A week after those bounces: the drawdown
6:56 My corrective target on QQQ: about 630
8:20 Bitcoin touched the 200-day: where I put the heavier DCAs
9:51 IBIT and the futures vs spot: the Friday close
11:01 Coinbase: options are coming; what I trade there
12:26 The shock: a 4% day within 2% of the high, once before (October 1989); the four cases
14:13 Raising fresh powder: keeping 30% of the positions
15:02 Bitcoin: the levels, and the only way this reverses ($81,900)
16:34 Kalshi: the November ladder, and a live trade
17:45 Under the October low: the five Novembers, a median 15% more
19:20 Kalshi: $50 in volume, up to $500 in credit, link below
20:05 Confirming a local low: the daily close I need
21:14 Stochastic momentum: daily, 5-day and 10-day
22:32 Today's read in one line
23:01 Q&A: RSI vs MACD divergence
24:41 The Cave: always a good time to join
25:48 Nvidia weekly and monthly: the next low 125 to 140
28:25 MSTZ to $5?
30:11 Strategy (MSTR): the bearish case
30:29 REW
31:45 Kalshi credit not received: what to do
32:53 Strategy: a daily short at 128
34:08 Trading Bible lifetime access: what it includes
35:00 TradingView update: the date moves to February
36:17 Bitcoin: the next move is down, but no new lows
37:54 RDW: is the bottom in?
41:06 XRP: lower to go? 1.05 to 1.07, then a bounce
44:46 Intel: bounce levels into year end
46:21 Speculative ETFs I am in
47:01 SOXX daily
48:00 QQQ: my take and timeframes
49:53 BE daily: a bounce to the 21 EMA?
51:56 Tesla
53:55 IREN, then RKLB
56:53 Taking profit at the 21 EMA: follow the plan
58:01 AI decoding animal language
59:46 Solana daily and weekly: time to buy?
1:04:37 A multi-year stock market downturn?
1:05:41 Monero: macro lower highs
1:08:07 INJ
1:09:11 BHC
1:11:15 If the Nasdaq drops, where does Bitcoin go? About 66
1:12:31 Reverend Ribbons with pivots: how I use them
1:16:02 AI models, tokens and IQ distributions
1:18:47 SMH weekly: the bounce first
1:22:17 A daily with bullish divergence: 10.50 to 10.80, then 11
1:32:35 HYPE
1:34:52 Moving Bitcoin to another entity
1:37:44 A real breakout early next year over 118 to 120
1:38:36 The number: $68,028
1:39:26 Bitcoin: the next area of interest down, and a year out
1:40:58 Where the bulk of my DCAs go: 60 to the 55 EMA at 65,600
1:42:08 Bi-monthly bearish divergence: 170 to 175 over two to six months
1:43:05 How far down does Bitcoin come on this move?
1:44:57 Chainlink if Bitcoin hits 65 to 68
1:46:03 USO
1:47:36 Bitcoin for the next two to three months
1:50:32 Zcash: the 13/34 cross
1:52:12 Gold: bearish over the next year or two
1:52:50 HYPE, and the sign-off
DISCLOSURES
General market commentary and education, not personalized investment advice and not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or size anything. I am not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor. I may hold positions in assets discussed. Trading carries substantial risk of loss; statistics and backtests are hypothetical and do not predict results. Some links are affiliate links. Consult a licensed professional before acting.