The AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Price War
The AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Price War
YouTube47 min 48 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should consider rotating capital out of Magnificent 7 hyperscalers and into Entegris (ENTG) and MKS Instruments (MKSI), which serve as essential "chemical oil" providers for the next generation of semiconductor manufacturing. Eli Lilly (LLY) offers a high-conviction "catch-up" trade as AI accelerates drug discovery and biotech breakthroughs, outperforming a currently stagnant tech sector. Physical commodities like Silver and Copper are critical hedges against AI infrastructure inflation, with silver specifically poised for a "boom" driven by orbital data center demand. While Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a technical bear market below its 200-day moving average, investors should use this period to dollar-cost average in anticipation of AI agents using crypto rails this fall. Avoid high-valuation private AI model makers and instead monitor private secondary markets for SpaceX, which is emerging as a dominant force in global compute infrastructure.

Detailed Analysis

Hyperscalers & Mag-7 (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, etc.)

  • The analyst observes a secular rotation away from the "Magnificent 7" and hyperscalers into the broader marketplace.
  • Hyperscalers are currently weak, having experienced back-to-back 4% down weeks, which is historically rare.
  • There is a "dangerous money loop" occurring: hyperscalers are spending wildly on infrastructure to sell capacity to AI firms (like OpenAI), while those same firms are now facing a pricing war and commoditization.
  • Risk Factor: Model pricing is falling faster than infrastructure costs are rising, which could lead to a significant margin squeeze for cloud providers.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Sentiment: Avoid being "long" hyperscalers relative to the rest of the market. Their multiples are high, and they are now facing debt and dilution.
  • Rotation Strategy: Capital is being pulled out of these giants to fund investments in private opportunities (SpaceX, Anthropic) and small-cap stocks.

SpaceX

  • Highlighted as the "fourth largest hyperscaler" based on its massive compute build-out, which reportedly took only 30 days to reach scale.
  • The analyst counters bearish valuation arguments by pointing to the logical revenue potential of their data center capabilities.
  • Investment Theme: The potential for a SpaceX IPO could trigger a "silver boom" due to the high volume of silver required for orbital data centers compared to terrestrial ones.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: SpaceX is viewed as a major infrastructure player, not just a space company.
  • Monitor for any news regarding a SpaceX IPO or private secondary markets as a proxy for the next phase of AI infrastructure.

Chemicals & Materials (ENTG, MKSI)

  • Chemicals are identified as the "oil of the next 10 years."
  • The transition from a transport-heavy economy to a compute-heavy one shifts demand from "barrels burned to molecules engineered."
  • Entegris (ENTG) is a spotlight name. It is a key supplier for NAND (memory) and advanced semiconductors.
  • The upcoming Nvidia "Vera Rubin" architecture is expected to increase chemical complexity requirements, serving as a catalyst for this sector.

Takeaways

  • Actionable Insight: Look for entry points in ENTG and MKSI. These names have lagged the broader AI rally but are showing technical breakouts.
  • Thematic Play: Chemicals are essential for advanced packaging, liquid cooling, and semiconductor manufacturing—all bottlenecks in the AI build-out.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto

  • The analyst maintains that we are currently in a "Bitcoin bear market" as the price remains below the 200-day moving average.
  • Despite the short-term bearishness, the long-term view is that crypto will provide the "rails" for AI Agents to conduct transactions.
  • Quantum Risk: Mentioned as a topic of discussion, but the analyst points to resources like BIP360 for mitigation strategies.

Takeaways

  • Accumulation Strategy: Continue to "buy little bits" (Dollar Cost Averaging) while the price is suppressed, anticipating a major story in the "application layer" of AI starting around September.
  • Sector Shift: Watch for a transition in investment focus toward "tokenized world" equities and tokens that support AI agentic workflows.

AI Model Makers (OpenAI, Anthropic)

  • Sentiment: Skeptical/Bearish on current valuations.
  • There is a "race to commoditization" where open-source models (like those from China or Meta) are becoming "good enough" and significantly cheaper.
  • Risk Factor: Anthropic’s revenue may not scale as projected due to high costs and customers (like Uber or Citadel) pushing back on expensive API pricing.

Takeaways

  • Investment Caution: Be wary of the "parabolic moves" in private AI model companies.
  • Edge Computing Play: 80% of AI workloads are predicted to run on 99% cheaper, open-source models on local hardware (laptops/phones) within 12-18 months, reducing the moat of the big model providers.

Healthcare & Biology (LLY)

  • AI is accelerating drug discovery and "longevity" science (reversing cell aging).
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) and Pfizer (PFE) are mentioned as beneficiaries of AI-driven biology breakthroughs.
  • Healthcare has significantly underperformed the tech sector and is ripe for a "catch-up" trade.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Healthcare is a "great place to be" as AI moves from discovery to digestion.
  • Actionable Insight: Consider Eli Lilly (LLY) as a primary beneficiary of the intersection between AI and biotech.

Commodities (Silver, Copper)

  • Copper: Demand is projected to be massive; humanity may need as much copper in the next 18 years as has been mined in the last 10,000 years.
  • Silver: Undervalued relative to its necessity in solid-state batteries and orbital data centers.
  • Indium Phosphide: Identified as a critical supply chain bottleneck for AI data centers that China currently dominates.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Rotate funds into the "commodity layer" (Silver, Copper, and rare earths) to hedge against AI infrastructure inflation.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
To Subscribe Visit: https://ai.22vresearch.com/ In this week's video, I lay out why the firework show is over and why the market has entered what I'm calling the AI midcycle slowdown, the choppy phase where investors are finally positioned for the boom they doubted a year ago, just as the second derivative of growth begins to turn. This is not the start of a bear market, and it is not the unwind of a bubble. It is a pullback inside a bull market, driven by the secular rotation out of the hyperscalers and the Mag 7 into the rest of the marketplace. The tape confirms it. Hyperscalers just posted back-to-back 4% down weeks relative to the S&P, something we've seen overall only a handful of times in three years. Small caps (IWM) are at new all-time highs and have outpaced the Mag 7 by nearly 10% on the month, a move with only two precedents in a decade. The trade is dispersion: roughly $20T of market cap spread across a 100-name thematic portfolio versus $22T concentrated in seven names. Underneath, the pressure on the spenders is building, Altman's admission on price cuts, the "most dangerous money loop in history," and rising costs at the physical layer. The core tension is now price compression at the model layer versus inflation at the physical layer. That's why I'm focused down the stack: chemicals, the materials layer, and the rising complexity of Vera Rubin, with Entegris as the spotlight name as the missing chemical layer comes into focus. Timestamps • (00:00–01:50) Framing: The signal behind the noise, secular rotation away from the hyperscalers and the Mag 7, commoditization and price wars, and a preview of chemicals breaking out and Vera Rubin complexity. • (01:50–04:25) BG2 pod (Baker/Gersner): SpaceX as the 4th-largest hyperscaler in 30 days; the end of the fireworks show; why bubble talk just moves the goalposts; bearish on hyperscalers relative to the receivers of the capex and beneficiaries like Eli Lilly. • (05:45–07:07) Consolidation: Stocks as tired runners after a cliff-like run; the S&P bouncing off its sharpest drop since liberation week; IWM at new all-time highs, "not bearish." • (07:07–08:34) Rotation evidence: TMT momentum vol at 25-year highs; hyperscalers' back-to-back 4% down weeks vs the S&P; IWM up ~9.8% on the Mag 7 for the month. • (09:09–10:34) The AI midcycle slowdown defined: why the second derivative turns, why it gets choppier, and why this is a pullback, not a bear market or bubble unwind. • (13:26–17:32) Price wars & the money loop: Altman on drastic price cuts; the "most dangerous money loop in history"; cancellations at Microsoft, Meta, and Uber; why any pause in Anthropic's parabolic revenue is a big negative. • (22:11–24:36) The core tension: model-layer price compression vs physical-layer inflation; elevated earnings estimates skewing risk to the downside; tight credit spreads and consolidating BDCs signaling no bubble unwind. • (28:34–30:16) Inflation & bottlenecks: PPI's biggest jump on record; sticky PCE keeping the Fed on hold; MLCC and indium phosphide squeezing the AI build-out. • (37:47–40:22) Chemical breakout: a five-year base broken; chemicals as the oil of the next decade; "barrels burned to molecules engineered" across semis, packaging, data centers, grid, and robotics with Entegris approaching a new all-time high again. • (40:22–45:09) Vera Rubin & the NAND thesis: rising complexity driving the missing chemical layer; Entegris naming NAND 39 times in two quarters; the thematic workflow ranking chemicals and materials among the top themes.
About Jordi Visser
Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser

By @jordivisserlabs

Empowering seasoned professionals to navigate the future of finance, technology, and AI. What We Offer: - Cutting-edge ...