Everyone Is Waiting For $40k Bitcoin (Here’s Why They’re Wrong)
Everyone Is Waiting For $40k Bitcoin (Here’s Why They’re Wrong)
144 days ago•Jesse Eckel•@jesseeckel2
YouTube11 min 15 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing significant strength by decoupling from the S&P 500 and Gold, signaling a potential "seller exhaustion" phase that historically precedes major rallies. Investors should watch for a potential short-term "tax season" dip toward the $60,000 support level in mid-April, which represents a high-conviction entry point before further upside. If prices break above the $75,000–$81,000 range, a massive short squeeze could trigger a parabolic move similar to the 145% rally seen in late 2020. While traditional markets face headwinds from geopolitical tension and liquidity drains, Bitcoin is positioned as a "liquidity sponge" that typically outperforms during U.S. election year cycles. Avoid waiting for a deep retracement to the $30k–$40k range, as the current market structure suggests those lows may not be revisited this cycle.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Resilience Against Macro Headwinds: Despite the S&P 500 losing trillions and gold/silver seeing massive sell-offs, Bitcoin has shown strength with eight consecutive daily green candles. This "decoupling" from traditional markets is seen as a highly bullish signal.
  • Historical Pattern: The last time Bitcoin saw eight consecutive green candles (December 2020), it rallied 145% in the following two months.
  • The "Seller Exhaustion" Theory: The speaker suggests the market has "run out of sellers." Even with "Super Bowl level" bad news (Iran conflict, oil shocks, recession fears), the price hasn't broken down, suggesting those left in the market are "diamond-handed" holders.
  • Bull vs. Bear Arguments:
    • Bear Case: Analysts argue Bitcoin is mirroring the 2022 pattern, predicting a drop to the $40k–$50k range due to tax-related sell-offs in April.
    • Bull Case: Bulls point to Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-week moving average, a potential short squeeze if prices break above $75k–$81k, and the detachment from a falling stock market.
  • Liquidity Cycles: Short-term price action is being driven by tax return liquidity (inflow), but a "landmine" exists in mid-April when investors must sell assets to pay tax bills.

Takeaways

  • Watch the $60k Floor: The $60,000 level is identified as a very strong support zone. Even if a retracement occurs in April, the speaker expects this bottom to hold.
  • Prepare for April Volatility: Expect a potential "liquidity flippening" between late March and mid-April. This could provide a final "retest" of the lows before a move higher.
  • Long-term Outlook: The speaker remains bullish for the end of the year, citing the upcoming U.S. presidential election cycle as a period where liquidity typically increases, propping up asset prices.
  • Ignore the "Four-Year Cycle" Rigidly: The speaker warns that this cycle is "alien" compared to 2017 or 2021 because there was no parabolic mania phase. Waiting for a $30k–$40k "bottom" in late 2026 might result in being priced out.

Broad Market Themes (S&P 500, Gold, Macro)

  • Market Divergence: While Bitcoin is climbing, the S&P 500 recently erased $2 trillion in market cap, and $900 billion was wiped out from Gold and Silver in a two-hour window.
  • Macro "Landmines": Several factors are creating a "cocktail of disaster" for traditional markets:
    • The Iran conflict and potential oil shocks.
    • The TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuild and weak liquidity conditions.
    • Comparisons to the 2008 recession by various analysts.
  • Election Year Liquidity: Historically, macro conditions become "frothy" (highly liquid) leading into midterms and presidential elections as the government seeks to support the economy.

Takeaways

  • Monitor Liquidity, Not Just Charts: The speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin is a "liquidity sponge." If macro conditions loosen (more money printing or government spending) heading into the election, Bitcoin is likely to outperform traditional assets.
  • Bitcoin as a Diversifier: The recent price action suggests Bitcoin may be starting to act as a hedge or a detached asset when the S&P 500 and Gold are failing simultaneously.

Risk Factors to Watch

  • Tax Season Sell-off: A specific warning is issued for the period leading up to mid-April, where the need for cash to pay taxes could trigger a market-wide dip.
  • Geopolitical Escalation: Any further escalation in the Middle East (Iran) remains a wildcard that could disrupt bullish technical setups.
  • Timing Errors: The speaker admits to being wrong on timing previously (missing the late 2025 "landmine"), suggesting that while the upward direction is likely, the path will be volatile and slower than many expect.
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Video Description
Everyone is waiting for $40,000 Bitcoin… but the market may be telling a very different story. Despite what feels like the Super Bowl of bad news for markets — trillions wiped from stocks, recession fears, geopolitical tensions, and comparisons to 2008 — Bitcoin has been climbing. In fact, Bitcoin recently printed eight consecutive green days, even while the stock market was losing value. That kind of price action doesn’t normally happen in a market that’s about to collapse. In this video we break down why many traders believe Bitcoin is heading to $50,000 or even $40,000 — and why that narrative might be missing something important. We also look at: • Why Bitcoin is rising despite extremely negative macro news • The role of tax refund liquidity and why it matters for markets • Signs the market may have run out of sellers (for now) • The growing possibility of a short squeeze higher • Why Bitcoin moving back above the 200-day moving average matters • The upcoming liquidity flip expected later in March and into April • How oil prices and the Iran conflict could impact inflation and markets • Why the widely believed “four year cycle” may be misunderstood Bitcoin markets are currently split between two camps: bears expecting a repeat of 2022 and a major drop toward $40,000, and bulls who believe the worst may already be behind us. The truth likely depends on macro liquidity, policy decisions, and how markets react to the next wave of economic pressure. Understanding the macro forces behind Bitcoin — liquidity cycles, inflation, policy, and market psychology — is key to understanding where the next major move could come from. If you want to stay ahead of the crypto market and understand the bigger macro picture driving Bitcoin and crypto prices, this video breaks it down. Keep in mind this is just my personal take and what i'm doing with my personal money, not investment advice. ----------- THE OBSIDIAN COUNCIL PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP 📝 The Obsidian Council Premium Membership Is CLOSED ❌ Join The Waitlist: https://theobsidiancouncil.myflodesk.com/waitlist ---------- THE NEVER DIE NEWSLETTER 🎉 Signup For The Never Die Weekly Newsletter: https://neverdie.club/ --------------------- AFFLIATE LINKS: 💻 Stoic Meta AI Strategy: https://stoic.ai/?ref=jesse 💰My Favorite Wallet Rabby: https://rabby.io/rabby-points?code=9DBPIQI2 💎 Stake Your ETH with Swell: https://rb.gy/mvnk2 🔒 My Favorite Hardware Wallet: https://trezor.go2cloud.org/aff_c?offer_id=135&aff_id=32260&source=Youtube ------ SUBSCRIBE: Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/c/jesseeckel2?sub_confirmation=1 OTHER PLACES I'M AT: 🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jesseeckel 📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jesseeckel0x/ 🖥️ Farcaster: https://warpcast.com/jesseeckel -------- *IMPORTANT PLEASE READ: None of this is meant to be taken as any form of investment advice, it's just me sharing my journey to a million and taking about what I'm up to and the strategies and tactics I'm using to try to get there. I am almost always talking about tokens that I myself own and obviously have a bias toward seeing them appreciate in value. Do your own research always! I'm a normal guy who makes mistakes and has made plenty so far during this journey. So choosing to blindly copy what I'm doing isn't going to lead you to just making a ton of money. I've had investments where I've lost EVERYTHING. I don't just say do your own research as a legal covering but because you really need to do your own research and make your own call. If you don't understand what you're investing in you can lose A LOT of money! Especially in crypto which is super super risky. A lot of the projects I like to jump in are really small crypto projects which make them even more insane risky. Past performance doesn't mean the project will do the same thing in the future, no one can predict the future and what will happen next. I'm pretty passionate about this, I am by no means a professional investor. I'm on my journey to a million dollars, I don't even have the experience to have made a million dollars. All this is to share my journey because I believe there is value in watching me both succeed and fail. It's my story I'm sharing with all of you, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and don't just blindly copy me😄 Also all of this info might be accurate at the time of me recording and posting but in the future things could change. Especially in crypto things change fast, so just be aware of that. Thanks! I hold investments in the tokens I'm talking about unless I otherwise state I don't. Best just to assume that if I'm talking about it, I own it. My Disclosures: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dyCYz1Cuw4Dte4DybGl1QJrbjRFEUAI9kCGb2FxjYOU/edit?tab=t.0 #Crypto #Bullrun
About Jesse Eckel
Jesse Eckel

Jesse Eckel

By @jesseeckel2

I full time invest in crypto and do research on the crypto markets. Sharing what I'm learning, the top projects I'm looking at, and the ...