LIVE: Bitcoin Crashing, Biggest Hack In History ($5.6 Billion and rising)
LIVE: Bitcoin Crashing, Biggest Hack In History ($5.6 Billion and rising)
YouTube2 hr 19 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Keep near-term exposure cautious: Bitcoin (BTC) remains weak below $82,000–$83,000; watch $75,000 and the $72,000–$75,000 support zone before considering a stronger bullish case.
  • Watch Solana (SOL) around $90–$95: holding and consolidating there could support a rebound, while a breakdown would weaken the setup.
  • Consider holding cash while risk-asset conditions remain uncertain; attractive deposit rates may offer income, and the Binance incident underscores that USDT and USDC can be frozen by issuers.
  • Avoid treating BNB as a buy-the-dip opportunity until the hack’s financial impact and Binance’s ability to cover losses are clearer.
Detailed Analysis

Binance and Binance Coin (BNB)

  • The speaker described an ongoing Binance-related hack, with reported losses rising from $5.6 billion to about $5.7 billion during the livestream. The full extent was still unclear.
  • Binance said user funds were safe. The speaker noted that exchanges may have insurance funds, but said he did not know how much Binance had available.
  • Tether and Circle reportedly froze nearly $1 billion or more in stablecoins connected to the incident, highlighting that stablecoins can be frozen by their issuers.
  • Binance Coin (BNB) fell about 7% on the day, with an intraday swing of roughly 10.4%. It tested a major support area, but the speaker did not say that support had definitively held.

Takeaways

  • Treat the hack’s financial impact and Binance’s ability to cover losses as unresolved until more information is available.
  • The incident underscores exchange, custody, and stablecoin-freeze risks. The speaker did not provide a specific recommendation to buy or sell BNB.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after failing to hold around $82,000. The speaker viewed $82,000–$83,000 as a key area: above it would indicate more strength, while remaining below it suggested weakness.
  • Near-term levels discussed included $75,000 support and a broader $72,000–$75,000 area. The speaker also cited the 200-day average near $73,100 and the 50-week average near $76,000.
  • He expected a possible short-term rally after a temporary low, but said a sustained move back above roughly $82,000 would be important for a stronger bullish case.
  • His longer-term view was cautious: he thought Bitcoin could eventually break below a $50,000–$60,000 base, possibly not until 2026 or 2027. He also described a possible cycle range of roughly $90,000–$150,000, while warning that a much higher run was not his main expectation.
  • He argued that falling trading and ETF volumes, a weak broader economic cycle, and reduced retail interest were reasons not to assume that previous bull-market patterns would repeat.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term outlook was conditional: a rebound without further selling would be encouraging, while continued weakness below key levels would keep the risk of lower prices in play.
  • His longer-term view favors patience over assuming a quick return to large gains. The price levels and timelines are his market views, not certainties.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum fell about 3.6% and approached support near $2,155. The speaker said it remained above an important August breakout area, so he did not regard the move as the worst-case scenario.
  • He expected Ethereum could eventually trade below $1,400 before the end of 2028. If major support in the roughly $800–$1,400 area were lost, he said a return to its all-time high might not occur until the 2030s, or possibly at all.
  • He was not expecting a near-term move to $8,000–$10,000, describing that kind of upside as unlikely based on the chart and market conditions he was observing.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presented Ethereum as vulnerable to further declines, with $2,150 as a near-term support reference and much lower prices as a longer-term risk scenario.
  • The speaker’s long-range forecasts are uncertain and depend on how the broader market and economic cycle develop.

XRP (XRP)

  • XRP was trading near $1.23 after breaking below a recent low. The speaker saw the chart as weak because a recent high was lower than the prior high.
  • He identified support around $1.15–$1.17 and said the chart did not yet justify predicting a move to $0.50.
  • He said he was not personally interested in holding XRP long term and was assessing it primarily as a possible trade.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed XRP as technically weak, with $1.15–$1.17 an important area to watch. He did not give a buy recommendation.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana was near $92–$96, close to the $90–$95 support area the speaker had been watching.
  • He said a hold and consolidation in that area could support another move higher. He also cited the 200-day average near $88–$89.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s near-term view was conditional: holding the support zone would be constructive, while losing it would weaken the chart further.

Selected Altcoins

  • Cardano (ADA): The speaker described it as weak and said its main strong run had been in 2021.
  • Polkadot (DOT): He saw a continuing downtrend and lower highs, and said a short trade could be considered only if trading costs and fees were manageable. He characterized it as a poor long-term hold.
  • Sui (SUI): It had rallied but then fallen back. The speaker said heavy volume without follow-through suggested selling pressure.
  • Chainlink (LINK): He pointed to repeated lower highs and gave a bearish assessment of its chart.
  • Internet Computer (ICP): He described it as a downtrend with short-lived rallies, and noted $2 as a level whose breakdown could lead to fresh lows.
  • Cosmos (ATOM): The speaker called its chart weak and did not see a compelling long-term case.
  • Stellar (XLM): He described lower highs and lower lows, with $0.08–$0.10 as a possible area to watch for a bounce.
  • Dogecoin (DOGE): He viewed it as very weak, noting a possible watch area near $0.06 and prior lows around $0.05.
  • Zcash (ZEC): After a strong run, he said it could be forming a top unless it moved back above roughly $1,400.
  • Monero (XMR): It had performed relatively well compared with many other coins. The speaker identified about $450 as a level to watch, while noting that privacy coins carry their own uncertainty.
  • Tron (TRX): It had made an unusually large move, with a rejection around $0.37 and some selling afterward. The speaker suggested it could return toward its prior trading range.
  • HYPE: The speaker said it had held up relatively well, but also cautioned against overinterpreting sharp price spikes.
  • Litecoin (LTC), Dash (DASH), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Theta (THETA), and Avalanche (AVAX): These were mentioned in the discussion, but the speaker offered no clear bullish thesis or specific investment recommendation for them.

Takeaways

  • The speaker was broadly bearish on many older or speculative altcoins, citing lower highs, weak follow-through after rallies, and the possibility of prolonged declines.
  • He emphasized evaluating each chart and its risk-reward rather than assuming that past altcoin rallies will recur.

U.S. Stock Market and Major Indices

  • The speaker said the S&P 500 was holding a support area around 7,500–7,600 and still expected a move higher after the midterm elections, though he clarified that he was not necessarily predicting a sharp “pump.”
  • He said he would consider shorting the broader stock market only after clearer evidence of a trend change, such as breakdowns of important lows and stronger downside moves.
  • The Nasdaq had pulled back toward prior support. The speaker described the near-term setup as weak, while noting that holding support could allow another attempt higher.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s outlook was cautiously constructive on the indices while key support held, but he saw less attractive risk-reward for longer-term stock-market exposure than earlier.
  • He favored waiting for confirmation of a trend change rather than trying to call an exact market top.

Individual Stocks and Companies

  • Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA): Both had reached new all-time highs. The speaker noted their strong price action but did not recommend buying at those levels.
  • Nike (NKE): He discussed a possible bounce from around $38 toward $50, but also highlighted downside risk toward roughly $20–$30. He emphasized assessing the potential reward against the risk.
  • Strategy / MicroStrategy (MSTR): The speaker described a broad trading range of about $100–$200, with no decisive breakout or breakdown and declining volume. He also said Bitcoin treasury-company holdings had changed little in recent months.
  • Circle (CRCL): The stock had been holding around $60, but the speaker said a break below $75 could signal a move toward lower prices. He did not provide a bullish recommendation.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): He cited near-term support around $208, with about $190 as a lower level to watch. He noted that the rallies were slowing, while buyers had continued to support prior dips.
  • Apple (AAPL): It was holding up better than other large technology stocks and had reached a new daily closing high.
  • Tesla (TSLA): It had moved above roughly $390–$400, which the speaker considered a positive short-term development. He mentioned $500 as a possible higher level, not as a formal target.
  • Palantir (PLTR): It was near resistance around $208–$210. The speaker said a strong close above that area would be needed to improve the chart.
  • Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet/Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT): The speaker noted declines in Amazon and Google, a small gain in Meta, and Microsoft holding near its highs. He did not offer specific trade recommendations for these companies.
  • Oracle (ORCL): It was mentioned briefly in a discussion of recent stock-market weakness, without a detailed outlook.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was mixed across individual stocks: Visa, Mastercard, Apple, and Tesla showed relative strength, while several large technology names had pulled back.
  • The speaker focused on chart levels and trend confirmation rather than recommending broad purchases of any of these stocks.

Gold and Silver

  • The speaker was cautious on gold, saying it had not shown the accumulation signals he wanted and could be at risk of a breakdown. He said he was not holding gold or silver at the time.
  • He viewed silver as weaker than gold in the near term. After discussing prices near $52, he cited support around $48 and $46 and said silver could eventually revisit the $40s or even the $30s over a longer period.
  • He said that if both metals fell, gold might decline less than silver. He also noted that central-bank gold buying was being outweighed in the price action by much larger activity in paper markets.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stance was cautious on both metals, especially silver, and he preferred to wait for evidence that selling had eased and a base was forming.
  • He described the lower price areas as possible future levels, not guaranteed outcomes or specific buy recommendations.

Cash, Stablecoins, and U.S. Dollar

  • The speaker argued that cash had outperformed several risk assets over the periods he discussed and said cash was not “always trash.” He cited deposit rates around 5.5% in Australia and mentioned rates of roughly 4%–5% in some other contexts.
  • He noted that USDT and USDC were affected by the hack-related freeze. He also said stablecoins have a practical payments use case, while warning that their issuers can freeze funds.
  • He expected the U.S. dollar could weaken over the longer term, but said the dollar would remain important to global markets. He identified roughly 97.5–98.5 as levels to watch over time.

Takeaways

  • The speaker presented cash as a potentially useful holding when interest rates are attractive and other assets have weak risk-reward.
  • Stablecoins may be useful for payments, but the discussion highlighted issuer, custody, and freezing risks.

Bonds and Interest Rates

  • The speaker said longer-term bond yields were above the current policy rate, which he viewed as a signal that interest rates could rise.
  • He mentioned short-term bonds as one possible way to limit exposure to declines in longer-duration bond prices.

Takeaways

  • The speaker saw higher rates as a reason to reassess the relative appeal of cash and bonds versus riskier investments.
  • No specific bond security, yield target, or timeline was provided.

Real Estate

  • For Australian property, the speaker estimated that prior national-average declines had been about 12%–14% and said a future decline of 15% or more was possible.
  • He noted that some Australian markets had run hot and could face declines or a prolonged sideways period.
  • On Canadian housing, he responded to a viewer citing a roughly 19% decline in the Fraser Valley, saying the market could continue to grind sideways after a rapid fall. He also compared the situation with New Zealand.

Takeaways

  • The speaker expected weakness or a drawn-out recovery in some housing markets, but stressed that outcomes could vary by location.
  • He did not provide a specific property-buying recommendation or a precise timeline.

Other Sectors and Commodities

  • Artificial intelligence (AI): The speaker expected some further upside for AI-related investments but did not think AI would necessarily be the dominant theme indefinitely. He also cited the possibility that the AI investment cycle could eventually lose momentum.
  • Uranium: He thought the recent rally had likely stalled for now and wanted to see a longer period of consolidation before considering another major move.
  • Copper: He saw no clear signal and said he preferred to wait for confirmation rather than buy solely at a particular price.
  • Oil: It was trading below resistance around $104–$106. The speaker saw no clear breakout or breakdown and noted that geopolitical developments could affect prices.

Takeaways

  • The speaker favored waiting for trend or accumulation signals in these sectors rather than buying solely on a popular investment narrative.
  • His comments were cautious and did not include specific recommendations to buy or sell.
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About Jason Pizzino
Jason Pizzino

Jason Pizzino

By @jasonpizzinoofficial

I am a full-time long-term investor and swing trader of over 19 years in real estate, commodities, stocks and crypto. On this channel ...