The Alt Season Formula: When To Buy And When To Sell
The Alt Season Formula: When To Buy And When To Sell
YouTube31 min 53 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Favor Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) over small altcoins for longer-term crypto exposure; consider gradual buying on pullbacks rather than treating moving-average levels as guaranteed support.
  • If taking more risk, consider Solana (SOL) only as a smaller position, and wait for signs of recovery—such as a break above its 200-day moving average or a downtrend line—before adding.
  • Set profit-taking rules before buying altcoins, and consider moving some gains to cash or BTC as market enthusiasm rises; past cycle patterns are not guarantees.
  • Avoid assuming deeply fallen tokens will rebound, and treat speculative assets such as Filecoin (FIL) as high-risk rather than core holdings.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker treats Bitcoin as different from most altcoins, arguing that it has historically recovered across four-year cycles while many smaller tokens have not.
  • He suggests buying during fear or pullbacks and watching Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. He says Bitcoin has historically respected this level, but that is his interpretation of past price behavior, not a guarantee.
  • He says falling Bitcoin dominance can signal money rotating into altcoins. If unsure about altcoins, he suggests holding Bitcoin instead.
  • He describes borrowing against Bitcoin and using liquidity pools to generate income, but does not discuss the associated risks in detail.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s main distinction is that Bitcoin may be more suitable than small altcoins for a long-term hold, while still being volatile.
  • His dramatic suggestion to sell assets and buy Bitcoin if it drops below its 200-week average should not be taken literally; it is not a risk-managed recommendation.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker says Ethereum was below or near its 200-week moving average at the time of recording and describes it as a potentially attractive value buy.
  • He says he already holds Ethereum and has added to his position, including through liquidity pools.
  • He generally treats Ethereum as a more established asset than smaller altcoins.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents Ethereum as a large-cap crypto asset the speaker is willing to hold, but its price and moving-average position are specific to the recording and may have changed.
  • The transcript does not provide a price target or a timeline for Ethereum.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker describes Solana as a coin with substantial trading activity and points to meme-coin activity, including Pump.fun, as part of its use case.
  • He says Solana was near or below its 200-week moving average and considers that level relevant to assessing value. He also notes that its RSI was elevated, suggesting it was near a phase boundary in his cycle framework.
  • He says he holds some Solana but would like to own more. He cites an example of a holder with an average buy price of $140 while SOL was around $105 at the time; he says liquidity-pool income could offset an unrealized paper loss.

Takeaways

  • The speaker views Solana more favorably than many smaller altcoins, while acknowledging it carries more risk than Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • The quoted prices are an illustration from the recording, not current market data or a price forecast.

Cardano (ADA)

  • The speaker uses ADA to illustrate how even a well-known project can underperform over a cycle. He says ADA did not return to its 2021 high of roughly $3 in the cycle he discusses.
  • He says ADA holders received a recovery to about $1.20, but argues that investors who held through the cycle may have lost ground versus Bitcoin and other assets.
  • He says that if ADA fails to exceed $3, and especially $1.20, by 2029, confidence in the project could suffer. He also describes the project and its leadership positively, while emphasizing that investment returns matter to holders.
  • He is not personally a fan of ADA’s chart, while noting that this is his opinion.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s central point is that project reputation and a large market cap do not guarantee strong investment returns.
  • The 2029 levels are the speaker’s stated test for ADA, not a prediction that those prices will or will not be reached.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • The speaker describes Chainlink as a useful project that connects other projects, but says it has not attracted enough market attention.
  • He sees LINK as moving from an early accumulation phase toward recovery in his cycle framework.
  • He notes that LINK performed in both 2021 and 2025 but did not exceed its 2021 cycle high. He says that is why he had not invested at the time, though he might reconsider.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights a tension between perceived project usefulness and price performance: the speaker wants evidence that LINK can regain momentum before investing.
  • He explicitly presents the chart discussion as educational rather than a recommendation to buy.

XRP

  • The speaker describes XRP as an established top-10 coin with a long-running community, and cites the outcome of its SEC lawsuit and its banking-related narrative as factors he considers.
  • He places XRP around the transition from phase A (accumulation) to phase B (recovery) in his framework.
  • He mentions that some holders who bought around $3 in 2017 have waited for years, and refers to XRP being around $1.30 at the time of the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The speaker sees XRP as a potential early-cycle opportunity, but the transcript provides no specific price target or guarantee of recovery.
  • Its historical price highs and the speaker’s phase assessment are context from the recording, not current market data.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker says he is considering Hyperliquid as a possible investment and describes it as a “social bet.”
  • He says he uses the platform with his AI trading bot and prefers it to KYC exchanges such as Coinbase, citing his own views on customer support and ease of access.
  • He discusses investing a substantial amount in Hyperliquid, Aave, or Uniswap, but says he may wait for preferred entry levels and might not get them. He also suggests that dollar-cost averaging smaller amounts regularly could be an alternative.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s interest is based partly on personal use and a view that users may prefer non-KYC trading platforms; that thesis may not play out as expected.
  • He presents both waiting for a target entry and regular DCA as options, not as a specific HYPE price recommendation.

Aave (AAVE)

  • The speaker refers to Aave as “AVI” in the transcript and says it is among the assets he might invest in.
  • He says he uses Aave to take out Bitcoin-backed loans and describes it as a possible “social bet.” He does not provide a price target.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s interest is tied to his own use of the platform, but personal use does not establish that the token will perform well.
  • The transcript does not detail risks associated with borrowing or DeFi activity.

Uniswap (UNI)

  • The speaker says he uses Uniswap for liquidity pools and includes it among the assets he might invest in.
  • He does not give a price target or a specific timing for buying UNI.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s interest is linked to the platform’s role in his DeFi activity, rather than a detailed valuation argument.
  • The transcript does not discuss the risks of liquidity pools or provide a specific UNI recommendation.

Quant (QNT)

  • The speaker says he likes QNT because he sees a use case and a favorable supply-and-demand aspect.
  • He mentions it as an example of the kind of project he considers alongside Bitcoin, but gives no price target or timing.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stated criteria are practical use and supply-demand dynamics; the transcript does not provide supporting measurements or a detailed investment case for QNT.

BNB

  • The speaker uses BNB as an example of an asset that showed phases of accumulation, recovery, hype, and euphoria across market cycles.
  • He does not provide a specific recommendation or price target.

Takeaways

  • BNB is used to illustrate the speaker’s cycle framework, not presented as a standalone buy or sell call.

Internet Computer (ICP)

  • The speaker says he has little confidence in ICP’s chart and questions how he could confidently position for a full recovery to a prior high of about $400.
  • He hopes ICP recovers, but describes it as an example of an altcoin where buying during fear may still not lead to a return to previous highs.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s caution illustrates his warning that a large price decline does not ensure a recovery.
  • He does not recommend buying ICP or give a recovery timeline.

Jasmy (JASMY)

  • The speaker uses Jasmy as an example of a coin where he lacks confidence that the full cycle pattern will play out.
  • He questions whether it can reach the euphoric phase of his framework and does not identify a specific catalyst.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s example reinforces that he would not assume every altcoin will recover just because it has fallen sharply.
  • No price target or buy recommendation is given.

Filecoin (FIL)

  • The speaker calls Filecoin a high-risk, “lottery ticket” example, not a coin he would personally buy.
  • He says it reached about $168 in 2021 and was around $1 at the time of the discussion. He notes that it did not gain traction in 2025 and could continue to fade or go to zero.
  • He says a position of 1% to 5% of a portfolio could be an example of how someone might size this kind of speculative bet; he does not recommend Filecoin specifically.

Takeaways

  • The speaker explicitly frames FIL as highly speculative, with a risk of further decline or failure.
  • The allocation range is his example of small position sizing, not a personalized recommendation.

Gala Games (GALA)

  • The speaker says GALA was his most profitable coin by percentage during the 2021 cycle, reaching an approximately 800% gain on paper.
  • He says he failed to take profits and that a roughly $20,000 position later fell to about $2,000. He describes the project as an example of how a large gain can be lost by holding too long.
  • He says the gaming narrative and perceived use case did not prevent the decline.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s clearest lesson from GALA is to plan profit-taking rather than assume a winning altcoin will keep rising.
  • He warns against holding every altcoin through the next bear market.

Illuvium (ILV)

  • The speaker says Illuvium rose substantially during the 2021 cycle, reaching about $2,000 in his account, but later fell to about $3.40.
  • He describes it as a gaming coin he held through a major decline because he expected it to rise further.

Takeaways

  • The example illustrates the speaker’s warning that strong past performance and an appealing narrative do not guarantee a lasting recovery.
  • He uses ILV as a cautionary example, not a current investment recommendation.

Verasity (VRA)

  • The speaker says he was bullish on Verasity because of its proposed ability to address click fraud in online advertising.
  • He says the coin rose substantially but that he did not take profits, and he believes the project did not fulfill its mission and later declined.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s experience highlights both execution risk and the danger of failing to take profits after a large gain.
  • He does not recommend buying VRA.

Altcoin-cycle strategy and market themes

  • The speaker’s framework divides altcoin cycles into accumulation, recovery, hype, and euphoria. He favors buying during fear or early recovery and taking profits as enthusiasm rises, rather than waiting for an exact market top.
  • He says to consider Total 3 (the crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), Bitcoin dominance, and the 200-week moving average when assessing altcoin conditions.
    • In his view, falling Bitcoin dominance may signal money rotating toward altcoins.
    • He describes the 200-week average as a potential value reference, while cautioning that it is more useful for coins he considers fundamentally solid.
  • He suggests buying pullbacks or using DCA, and says a price breaking above its 200-day moving average or a downward trendline could help build confidence in a recovery.
  • He recommends researching fundamentals, not buying solely because a coin has fallen, and treating Bitcoin and Ethereum differently from smaller altcoins.
  • He says to take profits aggressively during the later stages of a cycle, move some proceeds to cash or Bitcoin, and avoid holding every altcoin through a bear market.
  • He also argues that investors should maintain income and avoid relying on crypto gains alone.

Takeaways

  • The most actionable theme is to define an entry and exit plan before buying, including a profit-taking approach; the speaker says his own failure to sell winners cost him gains.
  • The transcript repeatedly notes that altcoins can be abandoned, fail to recover, or lose most of their value. The speaker’s cycle indicators and historical examples are not guarantees of future performance.
  • The speaker promotes an AI trading bot, paid memberships, and DeFi portfolio strategies, and cites members’ reported returns. Those promotional performance claims are self-reported in the transcript and are not independently verified.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
👉 10K Trades is one of the fastest ways to automate your crypto trading with AI - https://www.skool.com/10ktrades/about ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER AND WARNING The content provided in this video, and on any related social media platforms or websites associated with this channel, is for entertainment and educational purposes only. The views, opinions, and information presented are solely those of the content creator and should not be considered professional financial advice. I am not a certified financial advisor or a licensed investment professional. The information provided here is my own opinion and should not be taken as personalized financial advice. Always conduct your own research and due diligence. By watching this content, you agree that I am not liable for any decisions you make based on the information provided. This includes, but is not limited to, any losses or damages incurred as a result of investment or trading decisions influenced by the content on this channel. Investing and trading in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Markets for digital assets are volatile and unpredictable. There is potential for substantial loss, and you should be aware that it is possible to lose your entire investment. Always invest or trade what you can afford to lose. This content is not a substitute for professional financial advice. Should you require advice tailored to your individual circumstances, please seek the services of a qualified and licensed financial advisor.
About Jake Gordon Crypto
Jake Gordon Crypto

Jake Gordon Crypto

By @jakegordoncrypto

all in.