156. 《侠》|对影之刃零制作人梁其伟6小时访谈
156. 《侠》|对影之刃零制作人梁其伟6小时访谈
Podcast6 hr 27 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Tencent (0700.HK) for exposure to China’s game industry and original-IP development, but treat its investment in Shadow Blade Zero as a single project—not proof of broader returns.
  • Watch for Chinese game developers with distinctive original games, proven execution, and global distribution potential; the sector’s growth opportunity is promising but hit-driven and high-risk.
  • Don’t treat NetEase (NTES; 9999.HK) or Sony (6758.T) as direct plays on Shadow Blade Zero: their roles were discussed in historical or potential partnerships, with no sales forecasts or investment targets provided.
Detailed Analysis

Tencent Holdings (0700.HK)

  • Tencent was described as an investor and shareholder in the developer behind Shadow Blade Zero. The interview says Tencent invested more than RMB 400 million for a stake of over 20%; it also participated in later project financing alongside IDG.
  • The producer praised Tencent’s long-term perspective: continuing to build expertise and make games can be valuable even when immediate commercial success is uncertain.
  • Tencent was also cited as an example of a large company supporting independent development through investment, rather than requiring the project to fit wholly within its own internal operations.

Takeaways

  • Tencent’s investment activity gives investors exposure to China’s game industry, including both large-scale publishing and support for independent studios. The interview’s favorable comments describe one studio relationship, not a broad assessment of Tencent’s investment returns.
  • The discussion points to a possible opportunity in funding ambitious original games, but also highlights execution risk: project outcomes, budgets, and commercial reception remain uncertain.

NetEase (NTES; 9999.HK)

  • NetEase provided early funding and publishing support to the studio, helping finance development of its mobile games.
  • The interview describes one mobile title’s monthly revenue initially reaching tens of millions of yuan, followed by a decline. It also says the studio later generated substantial monthly profit from mobile games, though these are historical figures for the studio, not NetEase’s own results.
  • The producer said the studio eventually repurchased NetEase’s stake when it considered the valuation attractive and wanted more independence.

Takeaways

  • NetEase’s role illustrates how publishing advances and revenue-sharing arrangements can help studios finance game development and reach players.
  • For investors, the broader lesson is to distinguish between a game’s initial revenue surge and its ability to sustain player engagement and revenue over time. The transcript describes sharp declines in some mobile titles’ revenue after launch.

Hero Games

  • Hero Games invested in the studio after its early relationship with NetEase. The interview mentions investment and publishing-related payments, but does not provide a complete, precise breakdown.
  • The producer described the relationship as tied to mobile-game projects and noted that the studio later bought back investor stakes as it moved toward a different creative direction.

Takeaways

  • Private investment in game studios can offer access to projects before they reach the market, but the transcript does not provide enough information to assess Hero Games’ returns or the terms of its investment.
  • Investors evaluating similar deals should examine ownership, publishing rights, revenue-sharing terms, and the studio’s ability to deliver future games—not just a project’s early performance.

IDG Capital

  • IDG was named as a participant in later financing for the studio’s major game project, alongside Tencent. The interview does not state the amount or detailed terms.

Takeaways

  • The mention reflects continued investor interest in funding large, original game projects in China.
  • No investment return, valuation, or specific recommendation was given. The financing should be treated as evidence of investor participation, not proof that the project or its backers will succeed.

Chinese AAA Games and Original IP

  • The interview describes China’s single-player and AAA game industry as moving into a more established phase, with titles such as Black Myth: Wukong helping demonstrate that Chinese-made games can attract global attention.
  • The producer cited a large gap between Chinese players’ spending on Steam and Chinese developers’ share of Steam revenue: approximately 25% of spending versus 5% of revenue, according to the interview. He presented this as evidence of an opportunity for domestic developers to capture more of the market.
  • He also emphasized that this is not a guaranteed growth opportunity. Large projects require significant investment, and the success of one title does not ensure that other studios can reproduce it. He said the studio’s own original IP still needed to prove its appeal.
  • The interview argues that a strong creator-led identity and control over a project can help differentiate a game and build a valuable brand. It also notes that large, live-service mobile games require long-term operational capabilities that may not suit every studio.

Takeaways

  • The sector may benefit from growing global interest in Chinese games and from domestic developers capturing more spending that currently goes to overseas titles.
  • Look for studios with a distinctive game, proven development capability, sufficient funding, and a credible route to global distribution. Treat a hit game’s success as difficult to replicate.
  • The transcript favors creator-led, premium single-player games for this particular studio, while acknowledging that live-service mobile games can have greater earnings potential for teams equipped to operate them over many years.

AI in Game Development

  • The producer said AI already has uses in technical work such as logic, quality assurance, and optimization, but said the studio had not used AI to create the art in Shadow Blade Zero.
  • He argued that buyers may value a game not only for the experience, but also for the human work, creative identity, and brand behind it. In his view, AI-generated output could face different consumer expectations about value and pricing.
  • He also acknowledged that AI could reduce production barriers and enable smaller teams or individual creators to make complete games. He did not predict exactly how this would reshape the industry.

Takeaways

  • AI may lower development costs and widen the pool of game creators, but the interview suggests that established creative brands and consumer trust could remain important sources of differentiation.
  • Assess AI exposure at the company level: the potential savings may be offset by uncertainty about how players value AI-assisted or AI-generated content. The transcript offers no specific investment recommendation or forecast for AI-related stocks.

Sony Group (6758.T) and Game Publishing

  • Sony was discussed as a potential publishing partner for Shadow Blade Zero. The studio ultimately chose to manage more of its own international marketing and publishing, believing it could retain greater control and flexibility.
  • The producer said self-publishing could mean missing some benefits of a major publisher, particularly overseas reach, but considered the studio capable of handling much of the work itself.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights a trade-off relevant to game publishers: a major publisher can provide reach and support, while self-publishing can offer more control over marketing, positioning, and distribution.
  • Sony was discussed as a potential partner, not as a recommended investment. The transcript gives no sales forecast or financial assessment of Sony’s publishing business.

Takeaways Across the Discussion

  • The clearest investment theme is the potential for Chinese developers to build globally competitive original games, supported by growing player demand and the possibility of retaining more value within China.
  • The main risks mentioned were uncertain commercial outcomes for large games, the difficulty of sustaining mobile-game revenue, the high demands of long-term game operations, and the challenge of proving an original IP.
  • No stock-price targets, explicit buy or sell recommendations, or expected returns were stated. The company and sector comments are not a substitute for evaluating current financials, valuations, and project-specific risks.
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Episode Description
播客新作:《侠》。 OUTLINE: 00:00:34 第一章 黑暗 00:47:55 第二章 角落 02:22:34 第三章 怪兽 03:45:52 第四章 正邪 04:26:26 第五章 规则 05:07:12 第六章 江湖 NOTE: 本集播客录制于《影之刃零》发售前。 LINKS: 我们的播客在小宇宙、Apple Podcast、Spotify等全音频平台播出; 我们的视频播客在小宇宙、Bilibili、小红书、视频号、抖音等全视频平台播出; 语言即世界工作室公众号:语言即世界language is world。 DISCLAIMER: 本内容不作为投资建议。 CONTACT: xiaojunzhang@lisw.ai Jump into the new world-and explore with us!😉
About 张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录
张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

By 张小珺

努力做中国最优质的科技、商业访谈。 张小珺:财经作者,写作中国商业深度报道,范围包括AI、科技巨头、风险投资和知名人物,也是播客《张小珺Jùn | 商业访谈录》制作人。 如果我的访谈能陪你走一段孤独的未知的路,也许有一天可以离目的地更近一点,我就很温暖:)