150. 对英伟达研究副总裁刘洺堉的4小时访谈:Cosmos 3、世界模型、武术、黄仁勋影响我的,和你不需要击败所有对手
150. 对英伟达研究副总裁刘洺堉的4小时访谈:Cosmos 3、世界模型、武术、黄仁勋影响我的,和你不需要击败所有对手
Podcast3 hr 36 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on the artificial intelligence and robotics mega-trend by investing in NVIDIA (NVDA), which serves as the essential infrastructure backbone for the entire sector.

Instead of betting on individual robot manufacturers, use NVDA as a core ecosystem play to gain diversified exposure to the emerging Physical AI market.

Expect management's long-term marathon mindset and continuous scaling of foundational models like Cosmos 3 to drive sustained, multi-year demand for the company's hardware.

Understand that NVDA actively reduces adoption friction by open-sourcing its technology, cementing its proprietary software and GPU ecosystem as the undisputed industry standard.

Maintain awareness of the heavy capital expenditures required for next-generation world models, but view any market dips driven by these costs as attractive long-term accumulation opportunities.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA is actively developing and scaling Cosmos (currently on Cosmos 3), a foundational world model designed specifically to power Physical AI and robotics rather than just digital text/content creation.
  • The company focuses on building infrastructure and foundational open-source models (such as merging language, video, audio, and physical action modalities) to support the broader ecosystem of developers and downstream physical AI/robotics builders.
  • Leadership, including CEO Jensen Huang, operates with a long-term "marathon" mindset, emphasizing first-principles decision-making, aggressive investments in compute resources (scaling up to tens of thousands of GPUs), and refusing traditional layoffs to maintain deep employee trust and a collaborative culture.
  • Rather than engaging in zero-sum competition, NVIDIA's strategic goal is to build and expand the foundational market for physical AI and robotics, thereby driving long-term demand for its GPU hardware and software ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • Ecosystem Play: NVIDIA acts as an essential picks-and-shovels provider for the AI and Physical AI revolution. Investors looking to gain exposure to the robotics and physical AI mega-trend without betting on a single hardware manufacturer or end-product robot maker can view NVIDIA as the primary infrastructure backbone.
  • Open-Source and Developer Support: By open-sourcing foundational models like Cosmos 3 to help downstream developers solve complex physical world modeling challenges, NVIDIA reduces friction for AI adoption, cementing its CUDA and hardware ecosystem as the industry standard.
  • Long-Term Horizon: Management's focus on foundational innovation and market creation rather than short-term quarterly churn suggests stability, though investors should remain mindful of the high capital expenditures and intense compute resource requirements inherent in training next-generation foundational world models.

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Episode Description
每次见到刘洺堉,他都穿一件黑色夹克,背着一个有点旧的斜挎包。 现任英伟达研究副总裁的刘洺堉,是英伟达第一位从研究员擢升至副总裁之位的管理者,他领导英伟达最重要的模型项目之一——世界基座模型Cosmos。 刘出生于中国台湾,是金庸小说爱好者。18岁起,刘洺堉就师从著名的武术家徐纪(神枪李书文一脉传人),练习中国功夫,一直至今。最近他又有了一个ice plunge(冰水浴)的新嗜好。凌晨4点多,刘洺堉起床后会依惯例进行武术训练:一个人蹲桩、打拳。做完全套后,再只身跳进冰桶,帮助身体修复。 这种锻炼习惯与我对刘洺堉的印象截然不同——他看起来谦和,说话音量也不大。“中国武术最重要的是控制自己。”刘洺堉说,“我并不是为了展现强大的破坏能力。” 某种程度上,这反映了他以及他所代表的英伟达这样巨型的基础设施型企业的竞争观。 访谈中,他反复强调,他没有任何竞争对手,他没有和任何人竞争,所有人都可以是合作伙伴。 “什么叫战争呢?我没有打算把别人杀死。”刘洺堉说,“我们的心态不是说想把别人给杀死,我们的心态是我们要怎么去造市场。你懂我意思吗?” “Jensen(英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋)经常说,要造市场,而不是存量竞争。他讲我们就要做zero-billion-dollar business(从零到十亿美元的业务)——你可以不赚钱,但当这个生意成功的时候,必须是很influential(有影响力)的。不能说满足每年赚100个million(1个亿)——这种scale(规模)对很多公司都很大,但对英伟达而言,这是一个distraction(分心)。”刘接着说,“你要去解最重要的问题,产生最大的贡献。” 英伟达正在“造”的市场,即面向物理世界的人工智能(Physical AI),世界基座模型Cosmos被寄予厚望。这个项目从2024年立项,经过两年多已发布至Cosmos 3。Cosmos直属团队不到100人,虚线汇报规模是200至300人。黄仁勋对刘洺堉表达战略决心,称:“你就做到Cosmos 97。” 如今,刘洺堉已在美国生活20年,在英伟达工作10年,他仍然用一些朴素的东方智慧进行技术表达——比如,他把大模型比作中医,时常援引《孙子兵法》“备多则力寡”来思考世界模型的技术趋势。 本次访谈,我们详细地聊了聊Cosmos系列(尤其是前不久发布的Cosmos 3)、世界模型、物理世界的人工智能、英伟达的竞争观、组织哲学,当然还有绕不开的黄仁勋。 接下来,就是我对刘洺堉的访谈。 OUTLINE: 00:02:35 英伟达的赌注与边界 00:29:57 意外、顿悟、转变 01:02:46 如何在英伟达拿到GPU 01:21:57 从研究员到英伟达VP:“我可能是第一个吧” 01:37:00 Cosmos的诞生 01:51:39 从Cosmos 1到Cosmos 3的演变 02:36:33 “黑客帝国” 02:44:20 下一个CUDA? 02:47:04 关于黄仁勋:Mission is the boss 03:12:20 模型竞争不是鱿鱼游戏 LINKS: 我们的播客在小宇宙、Apple Podcast、Spotify等全音频平台播出; 我们的视频播客在小宇宙、Bilibili、小红书、视频号、抖音等全视频平台播出; 如果你想服用文字版,请搜索我们工作室的公众号:语言即世界language is world。 DISCLAIMER: 本内容不作为投资建议。 CONTACT: xiaojunzhang@lisw.ai Jump into the new world-and explore with us!😉
About 张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录
张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

张小珺Jùn|商业访谈录

By 张小珺

努力做中国最优质的科技、商业访谈。 张小珺:财经作者,写作中国商业深度报道,范围包括AI、科技巨头、风险投资和知名人物,也是播客《张小珺Jùn | 商业访谈录》制作人。 如果我的访谈能陪你走一段孤独的未知的路,也许有一天可以离目的地更近一点,我就很温暖:)