Why This Bull Run Feels So Wrong 😬🐢 Boring... On Purpose?
Why This Bull Run Feels So Wrong 😬🐢 Boring... On Purpose?
209 days agoInvestAnswers@investanswers
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

To protect your wealth from fiat debasement, prioritize owning scarce hard assets like Bitcoin, Gold, and top-tier stocks. Consider Tesla (TSLA) a core holding, viewing it as a long-term Artificial Intelligence play with a price target of $8,000 by 2032. For a higher-risk strategy, look into TSLA LEAPS options expiring in 2026 with strike prices between $450 and $600. Solana (SOL) is presented as a heavily undervalued opportunity to hold alongside Bitcoin (BTC) due to its strong network fundamentals. Within the broader AI theme, focus on market leaders by investing in NVIDIA (NVDA) for infrastructure and Tesla (TSLA) for applications.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker addresses community frustration that the current bull run feels "underwhelming" and "boring" compared to previous cycles.
  • This is attributed to two main factors:
    • Historic Whale Selling: Since the 2024 peaks, large holders ("whales") have sold over 715,000 BTC. This is a much higher amount of selling than seen in previous cycles at this stage.
    • Historic Low Volatility: The market has experienced long periods of low volatility, which makes the price action feel stagnant. However, the speaker notes that historically, these quiet periods have ended with a strong bullish move.
  • Despite the selling pressure from whales, the supply has been absorbed by new institutional players, which the speaker calls "sharks":
    • Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) has acquired 388,000 BTC in the last year.
    • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $46 billion in inflows over the last 12 months.
  • When compared to Gold, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed since the beginning of 2023, with a 7.4x return versus Gold's 1.3x.
  • A 2032 price target of $1 million is mentioned, which would represent an 8.6x return from the price at the time of the podcast (~$115,000).
  • Risk Factors: The speaker briefly mentions theoretical risks such as a double spend problem, a quantum computing hack, or a major disagreement among developers that could "fork the chain."
  • Satoshi's Coins: The speaker believes the risk of Satoshi Nakamoto selling his ~1.04 million BTC is "impossible" because any attempt to move the coins would be instantly detected by the entire crypto community, causing market chaos long before a sale could be executed.

Takeaways

  • The current "boring" price action is due to heavy selling from early investors being absorbed by new institutional buyers like ETFs. This is a sign of a maturing market.
  • The speaker remains very bullish, believing Bitcoin's run is "just getting started" due to macro tailwinds like expected rate cuts and accelerating ETF adoption.
  • Despite the long-term bullish outlook, investors should be aware of the (low probability) technological risks inherent in the network.
  • The speaker's advice is to "hold on tight" and not be shaken out by the lack of explosive volatility seen in prior cycles.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The speaker is extremely bullish on Tesla, primarily as an Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment, not just a car company. He believes Tesla will "smoke Bitcoin" over the next five years.
  • The investment thesis is based on Tesla's potential to capture a piece of the $50 trillion Total Addressable Market (TAM) for AI, which includes robotics (Optimus) and autonomous driving (RoboTaxi).
  • Price Target: A "super sandbag" price target of $8,000 by 2032 is presented, which would be a 20x return from the current price of $400. This is based on milestones in Elon Musk's 10-year compensation plan.
  • Hardware 3 & FSD: For owners of older Teslas, Elon Musk has confirmed that anyone who paid for the Full Self-Driving (FSD) package on a Hardware 3 vehicle will receive a free hardware upgrade to be compatible with future, more advanced versions of FSD.
  • LEAPS (Long-Term Options): The speaker details a strategy for using LEAPS to get leveraged exposure to Tesla's potential upside.
    • Example: A LEAP option he purchased is up 12x, whereas simply buying the stock would have yielded a 3x return.
    • Strategy: He advises buying LEAPS that are at-the-money or slightly in-the-money for the best risk-reward. He warns against buying very far out-of-the-money calls unless the stock is in a "very, very oversold" condition.
    • Recommended Strikes: Based on his analysis, the $450 to $600 strike prices for LEAPS expiring in 2026 offer a good balance of risk and potential reward.

Takeaways

  • View Tesla as a long-term AI and robotics play with a potential upside that could significantly exceed that of other assets like Bitcoin.
  • For investors looking for higher potential returns (and higher risk), LEAPS can be a powerful tool.
  • The sweet spot for buying LEAPS is typically at or near the current stock price to balance cost and probability of success. Avoid "YOLO-ing" into far out-of-the-money options.
  • The speaker personally bought more TSLA on a recent dip to near $400, seeing it as a buying opportunity.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker believes Solana is "insanely cheap" and "very, very heavily undervalued" compared to its fundamental metrics.
  • While Bitcoin's market cap is over 20 times larger than Solana's, Solana processes vastly more transactions and has significantly more daily active users and developers.
  • The speaker sees a future where Solana's technology could power major financial markets, like the NASDAQ.
  • When asked if one should sell SOL to buy a whole Bitcoin, the speaker advised against it.

Takeaways

  • Solana represents a high-growth, asymmetric bet in the crypto space. Its current market valuation does not reflect its high level of network activity and development.
  • The recommended strategy is to hold both Bitcoin and Solana, as they serve different purposes (store of value vs. high-performance blockchain platform).
  • Investors could consider holding an equal-weighted position in both and potentially rebalancing after Solana experiences a significant price increase ("pop").

Investment Theme: Fiat Debasement

  • The speaker strongly believes that all fiat currencies, including the US Dollar, are "toast" and are losing value at an accelerating rate due to massive government debt and money printing.
  • He projects an annual debasement (loss of purchasing power) rate of 14% to 20%.
  • The rise in the price of Gold is a direct result of global investors losing confidence in fiat money and moving into hard assets.
  • Stablecoins (like Tether and Circle) are described as a temporary "lifeline for the U.S. dollar" because they create artificial demand for U.S. Treasuries, which they hold as reserves.

Takeaways

  • Your cash in the bank is a "melting ice cube." To preserve and grow wealth, you must own hard assets.
  • The core strategy to combat debasement is to invest in assets with scarcity or high growth potential, such as Bitcoin, Gold, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
  • The speaker expects these hard assets to "far outperform" the rate of inflation, protecting your purchasing power over the long term.

Other Investment Mentions

Solana Ecosystem

  • When asked about undervalued tokens on Solana, the speaker highlighted dApps that generate significant revenue and have strong user bases.
  • Takeaway: For investors looking for higher-risk, higher-reward plays within the Solana ecosystem, the following projects were mentioned as ones to research:
    • Perpetual DEXes: Jupiter (JUP), Drift (DRIFT)
    • Decentralized Exchanges (DEXes): Orca (ORCA), Radium (RAY)

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • The speaker clarified that large asset managers like BlackRock and Vanguard hold MSTR shares not as a direct, proprietary investment, but on behalf of their clients through passive index funds.
  • Takeaway: BlackRock's holding of MSTR does not represent a conflict of interest with its own Bitcoin ETF. It's simply a component of broader market index funds that they are required to hold.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

  • The speaker is extremely bullish on the AI sector, noting it has a $50 trillion addressable market.
  • While there may be "point bubbles" in smaller, less-established AI companies, the dominant leaders are considered solid investments.
  • Takeaway: The strategy is to focus on the "winners" in the space. The speaker identifies NVIDIA (NVDA) as the best semiconductor/infrastructure play and Tesla (TSLA) as the best AI application play.
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👋 JOIN THE FAMILY: http://www.patreon.com/investanswers 📈 IA MODELS: http://www.investanswers.io 🧠 FREE INVESTOR PROFILER QUIZ: https://investor-profiler.investanswers.io 📬 IA NEWSLETTER: https://investanswers.substack.com 🪙 IA CRYPTO COMPENDIUM: http://investanswers.io/crypto-compendium ⚙️ IA SCP Profiler: http://investanswers.io/scp-profiler 🌐 TradingView Referral: https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=27663 DISCLAIMER: InvestAnswers does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. None of the content on the InvestAnswers channels is financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be taken as such; the content is intended only for educational and entertainment purposes. InvestAnswers (James) shares some of his trades as learning examples but they are only relevant to his specific portfolio allocation, risk tolerance & financial expertise, may not constitute a comprehensive or complete discussion of such topics, and should not be emulated. The content of this video is solely the opinion(s) of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading equities or cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. Kindly use your judgment and do your own research at all times. You are solely responsible for your own financial, investing, and trading decisions. 00:00 Introduction 01:03 Where to Ask Questions 01:57 I feel that Satoshi kept his allocation to keep the network from ever becoming fully centralized……but tin foil hat me thinks what if he has a limit order to sell at 500k or 1M to have the ultimate rug pull on people. What do you think the odds of this are. 02:32 Nope - Not Possible for Satoshi to have LO in Place 04:10 Always Be Paranoid 04:27 I think I speak for a lot of people when I say this bull run has been extremely underwhelming. Don’t get me wrong 30% ytd returns is great but with everything going on with BTC it’s a huge disappointment. We hear almost daily about how the ETFs are dumping billions into BTC and treasuries and wealth funds and how the BTC led on exchanges is dropping fast yet we can’t even hold 126k? 05:29 BTC Bull Market 06:48 Sharks ate all Whales Dumped and 300K More 08:31 Record Low Volatility Makes it Feel Boring 10:10 Treasuries and ETFs 10:51 Summary 12:07 In the last 5 years, if you measure Tesla in Bitcoin, Tesla is down 91%, the NASDAQ is down 78%, the S&P 500 is down 84% and home prices are down 87%... Even if Tesla has a great next 5 years, how can you justify owning it over Bitcoin. 13:26 Bitcoin as the Ultimate Debasement Hedge 13:55 AI Market - Tesla as AI + AGI Platform 14:40 Tesla’s 20x Potential Outpaces Bitcoin’s 10x 15:58 Bitcoin secures wealth Tesla drives transformative growth with AI/AGI 17:00 Leaps and Low on Tesla/No exposure to Tesla - how to go about bringing more into the fold? 18:15 LEAPS Glorious LEAPS 19:21 Most Active TSLA LEAPS Friday 20:09 Super Sandbag TSLA PT Given Comp Plan 21:33 $656 Price Target Achieved 22:25 $700 Price Target Achieved 22:37 $800 Price Target Achieved 22:56 $900 Price Target Achieved 23:37 Summary 24:20 Best risk/reward zone 25:25 I have heard that millions of Tesla vehicles equipped with Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be compatible with Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 14.1. Could this situation lead to challenges for Tesla if dissatisfied customers express their concerns or demand for refunds or transfers of FSD licenses to new vehicles, and potential legal actions similar to past disputes over hardware promises. 26:39 Tesla HW 3 Status 27:36 HW 3 Hope 28:20 I would love to know your thoughts on de-dollarization. It’s a big concern that if Saudi de-dollarize and the BRICS nations then the USD will free fall (which is more than likely). Saudi is currently in the pilot stage of their CBDC. What are your thoughts on this? 29:20 All FIAT is TOAST! 33:00 Regarding MSTR and its recent weakness in comparison with BTC, I noticed that Blackrock owns around 5% of MSTR as well as some other Institutions. If I’m putting myself in Blackrock’s shoes, am I not just creating more competition for myself by investing in MSTR? If Blackrock’s goal is to accumulate / control more BTC, wouldn’t they benefit from closing their MSTR position and just buying BTC with those funds which would also slow down Saylor’s accumulation? 33:40 Blackrock Mge Funds and act as Fiduciaries 34:55 Would you swap most of your Solana bag if it goes to a greater value than the money required to become a whole coiner . This would leave me with nearly not solana ? 35:41 BTC vs SOL 36:39 The Play 37:51 With the Solana ETFs coming soon, I asked Grok and ChatGPT which Crypto’s within the Solana Ecosystem were undervalued relative to their revenue and therefore had the highest potential for big moves. I got 2 very different lists, what would be your list? 38:17 I like the Money Makers 38:56 Helping Animals
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