Don't Trade September Until You See THESE Charts πŸ“‰πŸ”₯
Don't Trade September Until You See THESE Charts πŸ“‰πŸ”₯
13 hours agoβ€’InvestAnswersβ€’@investanswers
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Use seasonal September market weakness to buy Bitcoin (BTC) around $74,000 to $75,000 support and Solana (SOL) ahead of an expected fourth-quarter rally.

Accumulate Tesla (TSLA) on pullbacks toward its $380 price target before third-quarter earnings and the upcoming rollout of its Cybercab fleet.

Buy foundational AI semiconductor leaders on dips, prioritizing NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) at current support levels, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) in the $200 to $210 range.

Exercise patience with overextended tech stocks by waiting for better entry prices, specifically targeting Alphabet (GOOGL) at $320, Astera Labs (ALAB) near $250, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) around $158.

Use any upcoming crypto rebounds to exit underperforming Bitcoin miners like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Marathon Digital (MARA), rotating that capital directly into spot crypto assets or leading AI infrastructure stocks.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Historical data shows the recent bear market lasted 304 days, which was significantly shorter and less steep than previous bear markets.
    • The monthly trend indicator has turned bullish (blue), which historically has preceded up to three years of positive price appreciation.
    • Near-term technical support sits between $74,000 and $75,000, with overhead resistance around $78,000 to $80,000.
    • Expectations for a drop back to $40,000 are viewed as statistically improbable (less than a 0.5% chance).
  • Price momentum continues to be driven primarily by institutional inflows into spot ETFs.
    • Every $1 billion of net ETF inflows historically correlates to an approximate 3% increase in spot price.

Takeaways

  • Treat September market weakness as a seasonal buying opportunity ahead of historically strong performance in the fourth quarter.
  • Maintain core exposure through spot holdings or long-dated call options (LEAPS on IBIT).

Solana (SOL)

  • Up 40% in August, breaking cleanly above its 200-day moving average.
    • Facing near-term technical resistance at $112 to $113 (level 2).
    • The speaker maintains exposure through long-term LEAPS on the Bitwise Solana ETF (BESOL) and perpetual long contracts established around $64 to $68.
  • Remains the leading Layer-1 blockchain network in terms of performance and upside potential relative to competitors.

Takeaways

  • Consolidating after a sharp rally; ideal as a primary Layer-1 allocation alongside Bitcoin for the upcoming market cycle.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Experiencing a consolidation phase alongside broader crypto assets.
    • Facing resistance at level 3 on the technical ATR model.
    • Needs broader liquidity inflows to break past September seasonal headwinds.

Takeaways

  • Neutral to bullish long-term, but currently taking a breather at resistance until fourth-quarter liquidity arrives.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • Rallied 53% in a 12-day span, breaking decisively above the $96 level.
    • Experiencing minor mean reversion as the company uses at-the-market (ATM) share offerings to fund additional Bitcoin purchases.
    • The speaker acquired LEAPS in the $90s range during the market pullback.
  • The preferred dividend vehicle STRC is trading above $97, offering an approximate 12.33% annual yield backed by four years of dollar dividend reserves.

Takeaways

  • Long-term momentum remains strong due to continuous Bitcoin accumulation; short-term pullbacks present entry opportunities for leveraged or options exposure.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Preparing the live fleet launch of dedicated Cybercab vehicles (over 2,500 units manufactured and deployed for testing).
    • Expected to outcompete and displace rival autonomous driving platforms (Uber and Waymo) over a 6 to 12-month horizon.
    • The stock is moving within a channel targeting a return toward $380, with strong Q3 earnings anticipated.
  • The TSLA / SpaceX pair trade has flattened, creating arbitrage opportunities by rotating between whichever asset is in a blue uptrend.

Takeaways

  • Accumulate on September dips ahead of autonomous vehicle rollouts and third-quarter earnings catalysts.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Generating more than $1 billion per day in revenue, with forward guidance implying 70% growth to reach $1.7 billion to $2 billion per day next year.
    • Trading near $224, close to its all-time high of $236.
    • Downside to the yellow "kill box" at $191 would require a major systemic market correction.

Takeaways

  • The premier foundational play in the AI sector; view any seasonal September pullbacks as prime accumulation zones.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

  • Experiencing a post-earnings pullback after guidance failed to meet inflated market expectations.
    • Finding strong price support around level 4 between $200 and $210.
    • Provides critical optical connectivity hardware required for global data center buildouts.

Takeaways

  • The sell-off is finding a floor; attractive entry point for a critical AI infrastructure and networking supplier.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • In a short-term technical downtrend with a sell signal.
    • Identified accumulation "kill box" target is $320 (current price is approximately $13 above this level).
    • Shifting core focus toward AI compute infrastructure rather than competing exclusively on frontier large language models.

Takeaways

  • Short-term bearish; wait for price to enter the $320 buy zone before initiating or adding to long-term positions.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • Trading at the bottom of its current range at level 5 technical support.
    • Positioned as a direct secondary play ("mini NVIDIA") capitalizing on high demand for custom AI silicon.

Takeaways

  • Bullish risk-reward setup at current support levels; attractive valuation for gaining AI semiconductor exposure.

Astera Labs (ALAB)

  • Currently in a short-term downtrend with a sell signal following an extended run from double digits up to $500.
    • Nearing an attractive buy zone ("kill zone") at $250 (recently trading around $267).
    • High implied volatility makes it a prime candidate for selling covered calls during parabolic spikes.

Takeaways

  • Short-term bearish but long-term bullish; look to accumulate shares or LEAPS near the $250 support level.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  • Ran up 11% over 25 days to reach $187 before initiating a much-needed technical mean reversion.
    • Potential downside support sits around level 5 at $158.

Takeaways

  • Short-term bearish after an extended rally; avoid chasing at highs and wait for pullbacks toward $158 before adding risk.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Currently in a technical downtrend with a sell signal.
    • Trades at a reasonable valuation (P/E 20), but heavy capital expenditures are consuming free cash flow while near-term revenue growth slows.
    • Consensus price target of $330 offers modest upside (~30%), but lacks the explosive growth profile of pure-play semiconductor names.

Takeaways

  • Safe mega-cap asset, but capital may generate higher returns in faster-growing AI chip and infrastructure plays.

GE Vernova (GEV)

  • Energy bottleneck beneficiary facing a 5-year backlog for industrial power turbines required by AI data centers.
    • Sold off sharply after missing earnings estimates by 22%, but historically shows strong fourth-quarter seasonality.
    • Trades at a reasonable P/E ratio of 25 while bouncing off level 5 support.

Takeaways

  • Viable "picks and shovels" play on the AI energy crisis, with seasonal tailwinds approaching in Q4.

Bloom Energy (BE)

  • High valuation with a P/E ratio of 281 alongside inconsistent earnings and decelerating revenue growth.
    • Chart remains in a downtrend hovering near $212.

Takeaways

  • Avoid initiating positions due to excessive valuation and poor earnings stability, despite thematic ties to AI power demand.

Bitcoin Miners (RIOT / CLSK / MARA / IREN)

  • Mining operations face continuous share dilution and an ongoing "race to the bottom" regarding hash rate competition.
    • The speaker is actively seeking to exit remaining positions in Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Marathon Digital (MARA), and Iris Energy (IREN) on the next market upswing.

Takeaways

  • Bearish long-term outlook; use upcoming crypto rallies to rotate capital out of miners and directly into spot assets (BTC, SOL) or leading AI hardware stocks.

Redwire (RDW)

  • Sub-scale space and defense technology company with consecutive earnings misses and weak cash balances.
    • Stock has flatlined near its cycle lows for two years.

Takeaways

  • Avoid speculative small-cap space names; focus capital exclusively on dominant industry leaders like SpaceX.
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