Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win Finance
Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win Finance
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat vertical AI software for finance as a two-to-five-year investment theme, prioritizing businesses with defensible workflows, specialized data, compliance controls, audit trails, and deep integrations—not simply access to powerful AI models.
  • Track whether these companies turn productivity gains into measurable outcomes, such as lower costs, more transactions, or profitable service to smaller clients; adoption and revenue impact remain uncertain.
  • Rogo is a private company, not a publicly traded stock, and the discussion provides no valuation or investment terms; consider it only through suitable private-market access and after assessing execution risks.
  • No specific public stock is recommended, so treat GS, JPM, BAC, KKR, HOOD, and RKT as examples to monitor—not buy calls.
Detailed Analysis

Rogo (Private company; no ticker)

  • The discussion presents Rogo as an AI software company focused on financial institutions, especially investment banks and dealmakers. Its product helps with tasks such as deal screening, data-room diligence, drafting materials, and updating firms’ internal systems.
  • The speaker says Rogo’s advantage is not just access to capable AI models, but the financial-specific data, compliance controls, audit trails, integrations, and workflows that make those models usable inside institutions.
  • Rogo currently sells as enterprise software priced per seat, with a people-intensive sales process. The speaker would ultimately prefer outcome-based pricing, such as charging for a completed transaction deliverable or a valuable investment idea.
  • The company’s stated ambition is to become infrastructure for private-market transactions, potentially enabling agents to coordinate counterparties and automate parts of deal execution.
  • The speaker describes the business as early in its product development, while emphasizing the substantial effort needed to build it. Risks raised include the difficulty of enterprise distribution, rapid changes in AI models, regulatory requirements, and uncertainty about how much human relationships will continue to matter in private markets.

Takeaways

  • Rogo is a private-company opportunity, not a publicly traded stock. The transcript provides no valuation, fundraising terms, or investment recommendation.
  • For evaluating similar businesses, the discussion suggests looking for complex workflows, specialized data, demanding integrations, regulatory requirements, and strong domain expertise—areas that may be harder for general-purpose AI providers to replicate.
  • Potential investors should also weigh the substantial execution demands: building trust with financial institutions, keeping products current as models change, and demonstrating measurable business results rather than just individual productivity gains.

Vertical AI software for finance (Investment theme)

  • The speaker argues that financial services contains many specialized markets, each with different data, workflows, definitions of quality, and regulatory obligations.
  • He believes companies can build large businesses by addressing the “last mile” of applying AI to these workflows—such as compliance, auditability, data rooms, and connections to systems of record—rather than relying on a general-purpose chatbot alone.
  • He frames the next two to five years as an important period for investment firms and banks to work out how to integrate AI into their operations. He also predicts that, over a longer horizon, leading firms could derive much more of their value from software, data, and systems than from people.
  • The discussion describes a potential shift from AI copilots that assist employees toward more autonomous agents that complete tasks and coordinate across organizations. The speaker stresses that outputs need to be auditable, especially when agents are trusted to take action.
  • Risks mentioned include the high engineering and product burden, the need for specialized teams and enterprise sales, and the possibility that AI-driven productivity may not translate into more revenue or improved firm-wide performance.

Takeaways

  • A useful investment lens is whether an AI company has a defensible workflow and integration advantage, not merely access to a strong underlying model.
  • Track whether customers can convert time savings into measurable outcomes, such as serving smaller clients profitably, completing more transactions, or reducing costs.
  • The transcript does not identify a specific publicly traded vertical-AI company as a recommendation, nor does it provide price targets.

Private markets and capital-markets automation (Investment theme)

  • The speaker sees private markets as especially promising for AI because many tasks remain human-coordinated: preparing and reviewing deal materials, standardizing information, communicating with counterparties, and executing transactions.
  • He predicts that AI could make it faster to assess assets, raise capital, and match buyers and sellers. He suggests that improved standardization and automation could make markets more transparent, liquid, and active.
  • One vision described is an AI-enabled transaction process in which agents handle diligence, coordinate advisers, communicate between firms, and support auctions or negotiations.
  • The speaker says the pace of change may depend partly on whether regulation or market forces encourage more standardization. He also notes that small-business owners may continue to prefer personal relationships when selling a business.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is a long-term financial infrastructure thesis: companies that make private-market data and transactions easier to organize could benefit if automation expands access to capital and increases transaction activity.
  • The uncertainty is meaningful. Adoption may vary by asset class and customer type, and relationship-driven transactions may take longer to automate than standardized workflows.
  • No specific private-market company, price target, or investment recommendation is given beyond the discussion of Rogo’s ambitions.

Financial and technology companies mentioned (Context only)

  • Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) are discussed as examples of large financial institutions that may need to redesign workflows and decide how to turn employee productivity gains into firm-wide results.
  • KKR (KKR) is mentioned in a hypothetical example of a private-equity firm potentially using AI to assess or sell a portfolio company more quickly.
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is used as an analogy for a future in which companies or individuals might access capital markets through a simpler online process.
  • Rocket Companies (RKT) is cited as an example of mortgages being delivered through an online platform rather than solely through a traditional in-person process.
  • FactSet (FDS), S&P Global (SPGI), Morningstar (MORN), Bloomberg, and PitchBook are referenced as examples of established financial data or software products against which financial professionals may compare new tools.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic are discussed as potential competitors in finance. The speaker’s view is that specialized providers may compete by building industry-specific workflows and infrastructure that general-purpose AI labs may not prioritize.
  • Affirm (AFRM) is mentioned as an example of a company that regularly rebuilds core technology; it is not presented as an investment recommendation.

Takeaways

  • These companies are examples and comparables, not buy or sell calls. The transcript gives no stock-specific outlook, valuation analysis, or price targets for them.
  • Investors following the theme could watch how banks and financial-data providers respond to AI adoption, while distinguishing between general AI capabilities and the specialized infrastructure needed to deploy them in regulated financial workflows.
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Video Description
Gabe Stengel is the co-founder of Rogo, an AI platform built for financial institutions. He joins Invest Like the Best to explore what happens as AI moves beyond helping investors search for information and starts taking on the work itself — from analyzing deals and building presentations to coordinating transactions and eventually acting autonomously across capital markets. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 2:38 Building Rogo 6:12 10,000 AI Agents 12:02 Skills That Still Matter 17:31 Beating OpenAI and Anthropic 28:35 Bloomberg of the AI Era 37:37 Rogo’s Company Brain 44:19 Chewing Glass 53:34 AI-Native Finance 59:21 What Humans Still Do Better #InvestLikeTheBest #ArtificialIntelligence #Finance #WallStreet #Rogo Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline: https://www.vanta.com/invest https://workos.com/ https://rogo.ai/invest https://www.ridgelineapps.com/ ****** Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc
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Invest Like The Best

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