Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?
Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?
Podcast32 min 56 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Treat crypto–AI as an emerging theme, not a proven investment category; prioritize projects with real usage and a clear path to capturing value.
  • Monitor Venice AI for continued growth in privacy-focused AI inference, but note that its scale remains smaller than OpenRouter and token value capture is unproven.
  • Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) only if its growth and fundamentals justify its valuation; the panel gave no price target, so manage entry timing and position size.
  • For Bitcoin exposure, compare other crypto investments with Bitcoin (BTC) and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), while recognizing that past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Detailed Analysis

Crypto and AI

  • The panel said the crypto–AI theme initially involved a lot of “force-fitting,” but that more credible use cases are emerging.
  • Potential areas of opportunity include privacy-focused AI, permissionless access, coordination between AI agents, and financing infrastructure for AI.
  • The speakers stressed that it is still unclear whether crypto projects can compete with centralized AI providers on efficiency or capture lasting value. They also noted that some AI-agent use cases remain speculative.

Takeaways

  • Treat crypto–AI as an emerging theme rather than a proven investment category. Look for real usage, growth, and a clear explanation of how a project captures value.
  • Privacy and permissionless access were presented as possible differentiators, but the panel did not identify specific price targets or investment recommendations.

Nous Research and Hermes

  • Nous Research was described as the developer of Hermes, a large open-source AI-agent framework. The speaker said the team has also built in the crypto–AI space and is now viewed as a legitimate AI team.
  • The panel cited this as an example of a crypto-connected team producing work that is relevant beyond crypto.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to builder quality and useful products as signals to watch in crypto–AI. It did not establish that Nous Research or Hermes is a directly investable asset.

Venice AI

  • Venice AI was described as a privacy-focused, crypto-oriented alternative to OpenRouter, routing AI inference.
  • The speaker said its usage growth was “hockey stick” shaped, while also noting that its token-related activity and inference volume remained smaller than OpenRouter’s.

Takeaways

  • The panel saw early growth and privacy positioning as promising, but the smaller scale is an important qualification. Monitor whether usage continues to expand and whether that activity translates into durable value for the project or its token.

USDAi

  • USDAi was described as a portfolio company offering financing for mid-market GPU clusters. The example given was a startup or public company seeking to buy $150 million of GPUs and potentially obtaining more attractive rates or requiring a smaller down payment than through other options.
  • The panel linked this opportunity to the substantial financing needs associated with AI infrastructure build-out.

Takeaways

  • AI infrastructure financing was presented as a potential area for crypto-enabled capital formation. The transcript provides no financial terms, performance data, or specific investment recommendation for USDAi.

Zcash (ZEC), NEAR Protocol (NEAR), and Zero-Knowledge Projects

  • The moderator cited Zcash, NEAR Intents, and projects related to zero-knowledge proofs as examples within the privacy investment theme.
  • The discussion described privacy as a narrative gaining traction, with the view that people may increasingly care about how AI systems handle personal data. No detailed assessment of these projects’ fundamentals was provided.

Takeaways

  • Privacy was a positive investment theme in the conversation, but the panel did not provide specific recommendations for ZEC, NEAR, or any zero-knowledge token.
  • Compare actual adoption and product activity with the broader privacy narrative before drawing conclusions.

Arweave (AR) and Filecoin (FIL)

  • The panel suggested that decentralized storage networks such as Arweave and Filecoin could be relevant if AI agents need durable, available records of their communications.
  • This was framed as a possible use case to investigate, not as evidence that agent swarms are already generating meaningful demand on these networks.

Takeaways

  • Agent-related storage is a hypothesis worth monitoring, not a confirmed source of value. Evidence of real usage would be important to assess the investment case.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid was described as a consensus name among crypto investors that had continued to rise and outperform despite its large market capitalization and popularity.
  • One panelist viewed this as healthy market behavior: an asset can remain strong after becoming widely recognized if its fundamentals and growth prospects remain strong.
  • The broader discussion noted that popular assets can become crowded quickly, making entry timing and position sizing important.

Takeaways

  • The panel’s view was that consensus alone does not rule out further performance; fundamentals still matter.
  • For investors, the key question is whether growth and fundamentals can support the valuation, rather than whether the asset is already well known. The panel gave no price target.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and IBIT

  • Bitcoin was described as the most commonly used benchmark for crypto funds, partly because limited alternatives have gained comparable acceptance among allocators.
  • Ether was also cited as a performance comparison. The panel discussed absolute returns and outperformance versus Bitcoin as measures that many investors care about.
  • One speaker mentioned IBIT as a way an investor could obtain Bitcoin exposure, noting that this can create a hurdle for crypto funds: investors may compare a fund’s performance with a readily available Bitcoin ETF.
  • A panelist reported that many crypto liquid funds they knew were up roughly 20% to 100% over the year-to-date period discussed, while Bitcoin and Ether were down. This was the speaker’s account, not independently verified in the conversation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights the importance of comparing a fund’s results with both relevant crypto benchmarks and accessible alternatives such as IBIT.
  • Past outperformance cited in the episode does not establish future performance. Investors should also consider a fund’s volatility, concentration, fees, and strategy.

Meme Coins

  • The panel said some retail investors seeking very large multiples have moved toward highly speculative, small-cap meme coins, including tokens discussed at market capitalizations ranging from roughly $100,000 to $50 million.
  • The speakers contrasted this behavior with larger investors’ tendency to focus on major assets or mid-cap projects with stronger fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents meme coins as a high-risk, speculative corner of the market, not as a fundamentals-backed recommendation.
  • Anyone considering them should recognize that the panel described the appeal as the possibility of outsized gains, not as a dependable investment case.

Early-Stage Crypto Venture Investing

  • The panel discussed opportunities at the pre-seed and seed stages, as well as later-stage investing. One investor said high-quality founders still exist at early stages, though there are fewer seed-stage founders than two or three years earlier.
  • Another speaker said seed-stage investing can be risky, but argued that crypto and AI companies may sometimes achieve rapid growth, citing the possibility of a 50x increase within one to two years. This was an illustrative claim, not a forecast.
  • The panel also noted that some growth-stage companies now have more durable traction, while growth-stage deals can be crowded.
  • AI tools may let some startups operate with fewer employees, but companies may still need to spend on computing, API access, marketing, or enterprise sales. The panel said $10 million could go further for some teams, but not for companies training large models.

Takeaways

  • Early-stage investing may offer substantial upside but involves significant uncertainty, including founder and execution risk.
  • The panelists emphasized investing within areas of expertise: some preferred pre-seed and seed, while others focused on liquid assets or public equities rather than trying to cover every stage.

Crypto Liquid-Fund Strategies and Long/Short Investing

  • The speakers described a more dispersed market in which active managers may be able to distinguish themselves by selecting assets rather than relying only on broad market gains.
  • One panelist said many liquid crypto funds they knew had outperformed Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana over the year-to-date period discussed. Another emphasized that returns can be driven by fundamentals, even when an asset is crowded.
  • A speaker described a possible long/short approach: owning stronger projects while shorting projects they believe are failing. The panel also mentioned cross-market trades such as long equities and short crypto, or the reverse.
  • Position-building challenges discussed included volatility, liquidity, rapid crowding, and the possibility that prices move quickly after an investment thesis becomes popular. One manager said they budget for roughly 5% variance in entry prices when building a position, with 5% to 10% discussed as a broader range.

Takeaways

  • The panel’s core message was to focus on fundamentals, position sizing, and a clear investment time horizon rather than assuming that broad crypto exposure will perform well.
  • Long/short strategies and liquid assets can involve substantial execution and market risks. The transcript did not provide specific trade recommendations or targets.
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Episode Description
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge? 07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 07:43 Do AI Agents Need Blockchains? 10:16 How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital 16:33 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:13 Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market 23:37 Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin 26:34 Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity? FOLLOW GUESTS › Arthur Cheong – https://x.com/arthur0x › Rajiv Patel-O'Connor – https://x.com/rajivpoc › Smac – https://x.com/0xsmac FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx