Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
Podcast59 min 54 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Shift your capital toward physical infrastructure and CapEx plays, as artificial intelligence threatens to commoditize software margins. Invest in large-scale industrial companies, machinery, and railroads to capitalize on ongoing deglobalization and structural economic shifts. Position yourself in the nuclear energy sector by monitoring private and public SMR companies like Valor Atomics and Alo Atomics that power the AI boom. Target investment-grade corporate bonds from hyperscalers like Oracle if yields hit the 8% to 9% range for reliable income. Exercise patience with Bitcoin (BTC) and MicroStrategy during this low-volume summer period, avoiding high-leverage trades until new catalysts emerge.

Detailed Analysis

Industrial Companies / CapEx Sector

  • Tyler is moving to Shotan Capital, a fund focused on investing in large-scale industrial companies and major capital expenditure (CapEx) plays.
  • The investment thesis relies on AI potentially commoditizing software, which shifts value toward physical, hard-to-reproduce industrial businesses and infrastructure.
  • Industrial assets, machinery, and railroads are highlighted as attractive long-term plays driven by structural shifts and deglobalization.

Takeaways

  • Look for investment opportunities in large industrial companies and infrastructure plays that benefit from secular CapEx trends.
  • Consider how artificial intelligence might pressure software margins while driving up demand for non-digital, physical infrastructure.

Nuclear Energy and SMR (Small Modular Reactor) Sector

  • The podcast discusses a coming energy surplus driven by heavy government and private investment into nuclear power, including fission, fusion, and SMR (Small Modular Reactor) companies.
  • Late-stage private rounds are occurring for nuclear companies like Valor Atomics and Alo Atomics.
  • Nuclear and power grid infrastructure are highlighted as the core backbone of the 21st-century economy and AI buildout.

Takeaways

  • Monitor early-stage, late-stage venture (Series C/D), and publicly traded nuclear and alternative energy companies as potential beneficiaries of the AI power demand boom.
  • Recognize energy and power infrastructure as foundational themes for long-term thematic growth.

Oracle Bonds (Oracle)

  • Investment-grade corporate bonds from major hyperscalers and tech giants like Oracle are highlighted as offering attractive yields (mentioned in the 8% to 9% range).
  • These yields are seen as a strong opportunity for investors seeking real income from solid balance sheets that are unlikely to go out of business.

Takeaways

  • Consider investment-grade corporate bonds from major technology and hyperscaler companies if yields reach high single-digit levels, providing income relative to risk.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are described as currently experiencing summer doldrums, low trading volume, and a lack of fresh retail narratives.
  • Previous downward pressure on Bitcoin supply was partly attributed to Bitcoin miners pivoting their hash power and selling supply to fund AI infrastructure.
  • The speaker notes that Saylor (MicroStrategy) recently raised significant cash reserves, and Bitcoin mining economics may improve as grid capacity and electrical infrastructure expand.

Takeaways

  • Approach Bitcoin with patience, recognizing that current market conditions resemble a cleansing period with low volatility.
  • Avoid high-leverage swing trading in crypto during seasonal low-volume periods, and watch for new narratives or catalysts to emerge before aggressively allocating capital.
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Episode Description
Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression. We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Tyler's Farewell 04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime 06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility 15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle? 20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade 24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks? 28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot 33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft 40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms? 44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat 46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase 50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows 55:34 Final Thoughts FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

By Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx