The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
185 days agoForward GuidanceBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 10 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Western Union (WU) as a potential value investment, as its partnership with Solana to launch a stablecoin could reignite growth for a stock trading at a very low valuation. A high-conviction trade suggests WU stock could outperform Solana (SOL) over the next six months. For investors seeking exposure to the tokenization of real-world assets, the upcoming public listing of Securitize presents a key opportunity. To invest broadly in the powerful AI and technology trend, a simple strategy is to hold the QQQ ETF. Finally, investors with a long-term horizon can view the current crypto market as a strategic entry point for a potential 20-year bull market.

Detailed Analysis

General Crypto Market

  • A long-term bullish view was expressed, comparing the current state of the crypto industry to the internet in 2003-2004, which experienced a boom, bust, and then a rebirth.
  • The speaker believes the industry is entering a 20-year bull market. While there will be short-term volatility ("chop"), the overall trend line is expected to be upward for the next two decades.
  • The year 2025 is seen as a "line in the sand moment" that will mark a new chapter for the industry, separating the early phase from the next major growth cycle.

Takeaways

  • Investors with a long-term horizon might view current market conditions as an entry point, similar to investing in internet companies after the dot-com bubble burst.
  • The core thesis is that crypto is a secular trend, much like software was from 2001 onward. This means that despite short-term market shocks, the underlying adoption and technology trend is expected to continue growing.

Securitize

  • Securitize is going public via a SPAC deal at a $1.25 billion valuation.
  • The company is described as a transfer agent and fund administrator for tokenized assets. They handle the record-keeping, tokenization process, and administration for digital securities.
  • They are reported to have $86 million in top-line revenue, largely supported by their acquisition of fund administrator MG Stover.
  • The investment thesis is compared to Circle, which saw its stock perform well because it was the only public market option for investors to gain exposure to the stablecoin trend.

Takeaways

  • Securitize could become the primary way for public market investors to bet on the tokenization of real-world assets theme.
  • The valuation is seen as being driven by the strong narrative and secular tailwind behind tokenization, rather than just its current financials. Investors are betting on the massive future growth of the tokenized asset space.

Western Union (WU)

  • The company announced a partnership with Solana to launch its own stablecoin.
  • The stock is described as being "left for dead" by the market, trading at a very low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.15.
  • Despite its poor stock performance, Western Union possesses a massive moat in its global distribution network and brand recognition, especially for cash-in and cash-out services.
  • The move into stablecoins is seen as a potential catalyst to bring growth back to a business that the market perceives as being in secular decline.

Takeaways

  • Western Union presents a potential value investment opportunity. An investor might bet that the market is undervaluing its powerful distribution network and that its new crypto strategy could reignite growth.
  • One of the podcast hosts made a bet that Western Union (WU) stock would outperform Solana (SOL) over the next six months, highlighting the conviction in this contrarian play.

Solana (SOL)

  • The Solana Foundation is rumored to have paid Western Union between $25 million and $50 million for a six-month exclusive partnership.
  • The hosts noted that paying for major partnerships is a common and legitimate business strategy to "kickstart the flywheel" and attract high-value activity to a platform. This has been done by companies like Amazon (for Alexa) and Facebook.
  • The key question is whether this investment will generate a positive return for the Solana ecosystem by bringing significant, lasting payment volume on-chain.

Takeaways

  • The Western Union deal is a major strategic win for Solana, aiming to establish it as a key player in the B2B and remittance payments sector, a market currently dominated by chains like Ethereum and Tron.
  • One host took the other side of the bet, believing Solana (SOL) will outperform Western Union (WU) over the next six months, indicating a bullish stance on the growth of the Solana ecosystem itself.

AI & Technology Sector

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) was discussed as a powerful secular trend alongside crypto that investors should not ignore.
  • The growth of foundational AI models like OpenAI and Anthropic was described as unprecedented. Anthropic is projected to grow its revenue 10x this year, from $1 billion to $10 billion.
  • One speaker mentioned their personal strategy is to be passively "long technology," which they express by holding the QQQ ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ 100.

Takeaways

  • For investors looking for broad exposure to the biggest technology trends like AI, a simple and effective strategy can be to invest in a technology-focused ETF like QQQ.
  • The extreme growth rates in private AI companies suggest that the theme has significant momentum, which could continue to benefit public tech stocks.

ZeroHash

  • ZeroHash is rumored to be in talks to be acquired by Mastercard for a price between $1.5 to $2 billion.
  • The company provides critical crypto infrastructure, including licensing, on-ramps, and off-ramps.
  • Its client list includes major financial players like Interactive Brokers, Stripe, Franklin Templeton, and BlackRock's BUIDL fund.

Takeaways

  • The potential acquisition highlights a major trend: large, traditional financial companies are actively looking to acquire crypto infrastructure businesses to get a foothold in the stablecoin and digital asset space.
  • As more of these infrastructure companies get acquired (like Bridge by Stripe, Rail by Ripple), the remaining independent players become more valuable due to scarcity.

MegaETH

  • MegaETH is a new blockchain project that recently conducted an Initial Coin Offering (ICO).
  • The offering was massively oversubscribed, with $1.39 billion committed for a $50 million raise (28x oversubscribed).
  • Pre-market futures on the token were trading at a valuation between $4 and $5 billion, significantly higher than the $1 billion valuation cap of the ICO.

Takeaways

  • The overwhelming demand for the MegaETH ICO indicates extremely high retail and community interest in new, high-performance blockchain projects.
  • For investors who participated, the pre-market data suggests the potential for significant returns. For those who missed it, it signals a project to watch closely upon its public launch.
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Episode Description
In this episode from the Empire podcast, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:25) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division (13:32) Grayscale Ad (14:10) The Next Chapter For Blockworks (20:06) It’s Still A Bull Market (24:30) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation (31:21) Grayscale Ad (32:44) Western Union Announces USDPT (50:07) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash (56:10) Will Stripe’s Tempo Be a Success? (1:04:01) The MegaETH ICO (1:07:29) Content Of The Week __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
About Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

By Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx