Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
269 days agoForward GuidanceBlockworks
Podcast57 min 2 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The long-term investment case for Artificial Intelligence remains strong, as real-world adoption may be happening faster than official data suggests. For broad exposure to the enabling hardware, consider the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which covers the entire chip industry. Investors seeking a more targeted play on AI chip designers can look to the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX). Separately, continued institutional interest in digital assets from firms like BlackRock signals a long-term positive catalyst for the crypto market. This trend reinforces the position of Coinbase (COIN) as a key, institutionally-recognized leader in the crypto ecosystem.

Detailed Analysis

VanEck Semiconductor ETFs (SMH & SMHX)

  • This information was presented in a podcast advertisement.
  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was described as the largest semiconductor ETF, with over $23 billion in assets under management.
    • The ad claims its unique index construction, covering the entire sector from design to manufacturing, has historically helped it outperform its closest competitor.
  • VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) was presented as a more specialized ETF.
    • It focuses exclusively on "fabless" semiconductor innovators—companies that design chips for AI infrastructure but do not manufacture them.
    • Key technologies mentioned include high bandwidth memory, power management chips, and custom accelerators, which are critical for running large AI models efficiently.

Takeaways

  • Investors seeking broad exposure to the entire semiconductor industry may find SMH to be a relevant option, as highlighted in the advertisement.
  • For those wanting more targeted exposure to the AI hardware design theme, SMHX offers a way to invest specifically in the fabless companies that are key innovators in the space.
  • Disclaimer: As this information is from a paid advertisement, investors should treat it as promotional material and conduct their own independent research before making any investment decisions.

Investment Theme: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Adoption

  • The guest, a labor market economist, discussed a government survey that tracks AI adoption among businesses.
  • He shared a theory that these official surveys may be undercounting the true rate of AI adoption.
  • The reasoning is that many businesses may not be fully aware of the extent to which their own employees are using AI tools for their work.

Takeaways

  • The real-world adoption of AI technologies could be happening faster and more broadly than official data suggests.
  • This can be seen as a long-term bullish signal for the AI sector. If adoption is being underestimated, the potential for future growth and productivity gains may also be larger than currently perceived.
  • Investors might consider that the investment thesis for AI is still in its early innings, with significant growth potential ahead as official metrics catch up to reality.

Sector to Watch: Hotels and Restaurants

  • The guest pointed to the hotels and restaurants sector as one that could be experiencing a "renewed reheating."
  • This trend is not necessarily driven by strong economic demand, but by a labor supply squeeze.
  • The sector heavily relies on immigrant labor, and with that "tap turned off," businesses are now scrambling for a smaller pool of available workers.

Takeaways

  • The significant reduction in labor supply could create a tighter labor market within the hospitality industry, independent of the broader economy.
  • This could lead to higher wage pressures for companies in this sector, but it could also give them pricing power if consumer demand remains stable.
  • Investors analyzing companies in the hotels and restaurants space should pay close attention to labor costs and their ability to pass on higher expenses to customers, as this dynamic could be a key driver of performance.

Crypto & Digital Assets (feat. Coinbase)

  • A promotion for the BlockWorks Digital Asset Summit was mentioned, described as "crypto's premier institutional event."
  • The event features speakers from major financial and crypto firms, including BlackRock, Circle, and Coinbase (COIN).

Takeaways

  • The continued, high-profile participation of institutional giants like BlackRock in crypto-focused events signals a serious and ongoing commitment to the digital asset class.
  • This can be interpreted as a long-term positive catalyst for the crypto market, suggesting further legitimization, institutional product development, and potential investment inflows.
  • The inclusion of Coinbase (COIN) alongside these major players reinforces its role as a key, institutionally-recognized entity in the crypto ecosystem.
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Episode Description
In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy! __ Follow Guy: https://x.com/EconBerger Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data? (6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions? (15:33) VanEck Ad (16:18) How to Think About the Data (20:42) Immigration Impact (29:10) VanEck Ad (29:50) Weekly Claims Data (40:08) JOLTS Data (45:54) The Beveridge Curve (53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW? (56:20) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx