Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain
Bringing The Long Tail Of Markets Onchain
311 days agoForward GuidanceBlockworks
Podcast36 min 22 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

A massive opportunity exists in creating perpetual swaps for stocks, which could be a superior product for retail traders compared to complex options. Investors should monitor platforms building in this space, such as Ostium, as they are positioned to capture a multi-billion dollar market. For the Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization theme, focus on alternative blockchains that offer the flexible governance required by large institutions. These platforms are better suited for institutional adoption than Bitcoin or Ethereum. Consider researching blockchains like Sui (SUI), Stellar (XLM), and Avalanche (AVAX) as potential leaders in attracting institutional RWA activity.

Detailed Analysis

Perpetual Swaps (Perps) on Equities

  • Guy from Athena calls the idea of putting perpetual swaps on equities a "$20 to $50 billion idea" for the company that successfully builds it.
  • The core argument is that retail traders on platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) currently use short-dated options to get leveraged exposure to stocks. This is complex, as it requires understanding volatility and option "Greeks".
  • Perpetual swaps (or "perps") are presented as a far superior and simpler product for retail speculation. They allow users to simply go long or short with leverage without the complexities of options pricing.
  • Kalidora from Ostium agrees, stating that retail traders choose perps over options when given the choice.
  • Outside the U.S., a similar instrument called a Contract for Difference (CFD) is the most frequently used tool for leveraged trading, demonstrating the existing demand for a perp-like product.

Takeaways

  • The development of perpetual swaps for traditional stocks is seen as a massive and largely untapped market opportunity within crypto.
  • This is considered one of the few true financial innovations from crypto that is "outright better" than what is available in traditional finance for retail users.
  • Investors should monitor platforms that are building in this space, such as Ostium, as they are on the cusp of unlocking a significant market. The success of such a platform could drive significant value to its native token or equity.

Athena (USDe)

  • Athena has created a "synthetic dollar" called USDe, which is backed by a tokenized cash-and-carry (or basis) trade.
  • It was the fastest-growing dollar asset in crypto history, growing to over $6 billion in its first year.
  • The core value proposition is capturing one of the largest sources of sustainable, dollar-denominated cash flow in crypto: the derivatives basis trade. This is identified as one of only three sources that can generate $10 billion+ in cash flow annually, the other two being Tether equity and Binance equity.
  • The speaker notes that while the product involves centralized exchanges, a major risk factor, they mitigate this. For example, during the Bybit hack, funds were safe because they were held with a third-party custodian, separating them from the exchange itself.
  • The next evolution for issuers like Athena is to expand their backing into the broader credit universe that sits between highly liquid T-bills and illiquid private credit.

Takeaways

  • Athena's USDe is a high-yield dollar-adjacent asset, but it is not a traditional stablecoin. Its yield is generated from crypto market structure (funding rates), and its stability depends on a derivatives strategy.
  • Investors should understand the risks, which are primarily counterparty risk to centralized exchanges and the risk of negative funding rates, although the protocol has risk management for these scenarios.
  • The future growth strategy involves incorporating a wider range of Real-World Assets (RWAs), specifically from the credit market. This could diversify its backing and potentially stabilize its yield profile over time.

Tokenized Treasuries & Stablecoins

  • The growth of stablecoins is a major trend, but the primary users are non-U.S. persons, particularly in countries with unstable local currencies like Argentina or Venezuela. For U.S. users, their utility is mostly limited to crypto trading.
  • A key insight from Austin, who worked on BUSD and PYUSD, is how upcoming U.S. regulation (the "Genius Act") will impact the U.S. Treasury market.
  • He predicts stablecoin issuers will prefer using reverse repo agreements over directly buying T-bills. Reverse repo is more liquid, allowing issuers to lend cash overnight against a variety of Treasury collateral and get it back daily if needed.
  • This will create buying pressure and lower funding rates across the entire Treasury curve, not just for T-bills. This benefits anyone holding U.S. government debt as collateral.

Takeaways

  • The stablecoin boom acts as a new, significant source of demand for U.S. government debt, creating a positive tailwind for the entire U.S. Treasury market.
  • This effectively allows global, non-U.S. users to access the U.S. dollar system, turning a stablecoin into a "government money market fund with a payments wrapper on it."
  • Investors should view the growth of regulated stablecoins as a macro-positive factor for U.S. debt instruments.

Governance-Focused Blockchains

  • A major theme is that large financial institutions will not use blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum to tokenize real-world assets like houses or bonds due to their rigid governance and the inability to reverse fraudulent transactions.
  • At the same time, private, permissioned blockchains built by banks are seen as a "bridge to nowhere" and "blockchain theater."
  • The speaker is most optimistic about a "middle ground" of blockchains that offer more flexible and sophisticated governance models.
  • Specific platforms mentioned as worth watching are Sui (SUI), Stellar (XLM), and Avalanche (AVAX) (specifically its "subnet" architecture).
  • The recent Cetus hack on the Sui blockchain was highlighted as a positive example. The validators were able to intervene and freeze the stolen assets, demonstrating a level of control that institutions would find reassuring for real-world asset tokenization.

Takeaways

  • For investors interested in the Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization theme, the key battleground may not be on Ethereum but on alternative Layer 1s like SUI, XLM, and AVAX.
  • These platforms are building the governance and technical features that could attract large institutional players who require more control and recourse than what decentralized purist chains can offer.
  • Monitoring the partnerships and development within these specific ecosystems could provide early insight into which platforms are gaining traction for institutional RWA adoption.
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Episode Description
In this panel live from Permissionless IV, we discuss what TradFi can learn from crypto, from instant settlement and transparent markets to permissionless synthetic dollars and on-chain leveraged trading. We cover stablecoin demand dynamics, the future of tokenized structured products, how perps outperform options for retail, the practical limits of decentralization, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Kaledora: https://x.com/kaledora Follow Guy: https://x.com/gdog97_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) What can TradFi Learn from Crypto? (10:14) Is Decentralization Important? (10:53) Ledger Ad (11:43) Is Decentralization Important? (17:23) Bringing TradFi Onchain (22:35) Ledger Ad (23:29) Bringing TradFi Onchain (26:32) Stablecoins & The GENIUS Act (30:57) Most Optimistic Innovations __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance
About Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

By Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx