What Liquid Funds Are Buying Featuring Seth Ginns & Cosmo Jiang
What Liquid Funds Are Buying Featuring Seth Ginns & Cosmo Jiang
264 days agoEmpireBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 21 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Institutional capital is flowing into Ethereum (ETH) through Digital Asset Treasuries like BitMine (BITM), providing a strong, ongoing tailwind for its price. Major funds continue to hold Solana (SOL) as a top position, while Ethena (ENA) is a high-growth stablecoin project with a short-term path to $20 billion in assets. Established DeFi protocols like Aave (AAVE) and Pendle (PENDLE) are positioned to benefit directly as this new institutional capital is deployed on-chain to generate yield. Investors should also watch for the upcoming launch of Plasma, a highly anticipated stablecoin-focused blockchain expected after Labor Day. This "token picker's market" favors investing in specific assets with clear catalysts over broad market exposure.

Detailed Analysis

Investment Strategy: Altcoin Selection

  • The core premise of the liquid funds discussed is that select altcoins represent secular growth opportunities that should "massively outperform" Bitcoin.
  • The speakers believe we are in a "token picker's market," where fundamental analysis is crucial, unlike previous cycles where most tokens went up.
  • In the current market, there is huge performance dispersion. For example, while Bitcoin was up 24% year-to-date at the time of recording, the average top 100 token was down 30%. Only 5% of the top 100 tokens were positive.
  • The investment process focuses on fundamentals, which means identifying protocols with:
    • Product-market fit and real user growth or revenue.
    • A clear model for value accrual to the token (e.g., revenue share, buybacks).
    • Transparent and trustworthy management teams who are incentivized to increase the token's value.
    • The speakers believe that ultimately, all assets (besides Bitcoin and Gold) are valued based on cash flow.
  • The funds run concentrated portfolios of 10-15 tokens to focus on their highest-conviction ideas.

Takeaways

  • Investors should not expect broad market rallies where all altcoins rise. Careful selection is more important than ever.
  • When evaluating a token, look for signs of a real business: Does it generate revenue? Does that revenue benefit token holders? Is the team credible and focused on the token's success?
  • The goal for an altcoin-focused portfolio should be to generate returns significantly higher than Bitcoin. If an altcoin doesn't have a clear path to outperforming Bitcoin, it may not be worth the additional risk.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

  • DATs are described as publicly traded companies (like MicroStrategy) that hold crypto assets on their balance sheet. They are seen as a crucial "bridge" for traditional finance capital to enter the crypto space, especially for assets that don't have an ETF yet.
  • They are considered a major catalyst for the "convergence" of traditional and crypto markets, and the speakers believe we are still in the "early innings" of this trend.
  • Key Functions of DATs:
    • Education: They help educate traditional investors about crypto protocols.
    • Friction Removal: They allow traditional equity funds (like mutual funds), which may be prohibited from buying crypto or ETFs directly, to gain exposure.
    • Marketing: They act as a "third leg of the stool" for a crypto project (alongside the Foundation and Labs entity), able to "pound the pavement" and promote the token in ways the other entities cannot.
  • Examples mentioned include BitMine (BITM) for Ethereum and TUN for Telegram's Toncoin. The speakers note that massive capital is flowing into these vehicles from non-crypto native funds.
  • Risk Factor: The main risk is their reflexive nature. When their stock trades at a premium to the value of the crypto they hold (the "MNAV premium"), they can issue shares to buy more crypto, pushing the price up. If the premium collapses, this flywheel can work in reverse. Future use of leverage by these companies is also a key risk to watch.

Takeaways

  • DATs are a major theme driving capital into the crypto market. Investors can gain exposure to this trend by investing in the DATs themselves.
  • The success of DATs is a bullish sign for the underlying assets they hold (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.), as they create a persistent source of demand from traditional markets.
  • Investors in DATs should monitor the premium/discount to their net asset value (NAV) and be aware of the potential for volatility if market sentiment shifts.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speakers took a large, counter-consensus bullish position on ETH earlier in the year.
  • The investment thesis was based on several factors:
    • Underwhelming Performance: ETH had been underperforming Bitcoin, leading to widespread negative sentiment, which created a value opportunity.
    • Strong Fundamentals: It remains the primary platform for TradFi to come on-chain and is home to the majority of stablecoins.
    • "Activist" Catalyst: Frustration with price performance led to a push from within the ecosystem (e.g., the creation of Etherealize) to adopt a more commercial, business-focused mindset.
    • DAT Tailwind: The launch of ETH-focused Digital Asset Treasuries like BitMine (BITM) is now driving a "sustained flow" of new capital into ETH.

Takeaways

  • The narrative around Ethereum has shifted from being stagnant to having multiple positive catalysts.
  • The flow of capital from traditional finance through vehicles like BitMine provides a strong, ongoing tailwind for ETH's price.
  • Investors looking for large-cap crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin should re-evaluate the bullish case for Ethereum, as institutional interest appears to be accelerating.

Solana (SOL)

  • Seth Ginns of CoinFund stated that their firm's largest position remains in Solana.
  • They are "really bullish on Solana being a leading L1 blockchain."
  • While not discussed in depth, the positioning implies high conviction from a major crypto fund in Solana's long-term potential to compete and win as a foundational layer of the crypto ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • Despite competition, major institutional investors continue to see Solana as a primary "blue-chip" asset and a core holding for a crypto portfolio.
  • This represents a strong vote of confidence in Solana's technology, ecosystem, and future growth prospects.

Ethena (ENA)

  • Ethena is highlighted as a key holding and a top idea within the booming stablecoin theme.
  • The project is described as "growing like a weed" in a favorable, "pro-cyclical" market environment.
  • The speakers see a clear, short-term path for Ethena to grow to $20 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL) and generate "a few hundred million dollars of earnings."
  • This fundamental growth trajectory could lead to a "really, really interesting price target" in the very short term.

Takeaways

  • Ethena is a high-growth play on the stablecoin theme, which is expected to accelerate, particularly after potential positive regulation like the "Genius Act."
  • Investors looking for high-growth opportunities can analyze Ethena's path to the mentioned TVL and earnings milestones to assess its potential valuation. The bullish case is tied directly to its ability to continue its rapid growth.

Plasma (Upcoming ICO)

  • Plasma is mentioned as an upcoming project "to watch in the post-Labor Day period" (early September).
  • It is a stablecoin-focused blockchain with a "great team" that is reportedly close to Tether.
  • The project conducted a unique initial raise where users locked $1 billion in stablecoins to get an allocation in the upcoming ICO, which was 7 times oversubscribed.
  • The business model is to bring traditional stablecoin players onto their chain and monetize via various services.

Takeaways

  • The upcoming launch of Plasma is a significant event to monitor for investors interested in the stablecoin infrastructure theme.
  • The massive demand and unique launch mechanism suggest high anticipation. Its performance upon launch could be a bellwether for the "stablecoin chain" narrative, especially with potential US stablecoin legislation providing tailwinds.

DeFi Sector (AAVE, PENDLE)

  • The speakers believe the entire DeFi sector, particularly large-cap players, will be a massive beneficiary of the capital flowing from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
  • As DATs accumulate billions in assets like ETH, they will need to deploy that capital on-chain to generate yield, driving significant flows into DeFi protocols.
  • Specific mentions:
    • Aave (AAVE): Described as "very well positioned" for the proliferation of stablecoins as the leading borrow/lend protocol.
    • Pendle (PENDLE): Also mentioned as a key player in the stablecoin and yield theme.

Takeaways

  • The growth of DATs is not just bullish for the assets they hold, but also for the entire DeFi ecosystem that can provide services (lending, staking, yield) for those assets.
  • Established, "blue-chip" DeFi protocols like Aave and Pendle are in a prime position to capture these institutional-scale capital flows.

Investment Theme: AI & Crypto Intersection

  • This intersection is identified as a "hot area" that is ripe for the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend.
  • While it's a major theme in traditional markets (e.g., MAG7 stocks), it has not yet seen significant DAT activity in crypto.
  • The speakers believe this should "come soon" and that there are "really interesting opportunities" at this intersection.

Takeaways

  • The convergence of AI and Crypto is a forward-looking theme that has not yet been fully priced or adopted by the market's new institutional players.
  • Investors should start researching projects building at this intersection, as they could be the focus of the next wave of DATs and narrative-driven capital flows.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week, Seth Ginns, from CoinFund, and Cosmo Jian, of Pantera Capital, join Yano to dive into the funds’ mandates, the overall outlook of the market, whether narratives or fundamentals drive price, how DATs play a role in the investor ecosystem and why sometimes non-consensus trades pay off! -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Seth: https://x.com/sethginns Follow Cosmo: https://x.com/cosmo_jiang Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 50 Million users over $11 Billion in gas fees.  SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at https://skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork -- Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users.  Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates] -- Ledn is the leading platform for Bitcoin-backed loans, offering a secure and transparent way to unlock liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Ledn has issued over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and has never lost a single satoshi of client assets, earning a reputation as the name you can trust in the crypto space. Visit https://www.ledn.io to learn more. – Chapters: (00:00) Intro (02:34) Liquid Funds (05:35) CoinFund’s Mandate (06:40) Pantera Capital’s Mandate (15:22) Portfolio Construction (20:17) Ads (Skale, Katana) (21:48) Token Picking Strategy (29:20) Narrative Driven Markets (35:42) Acquiring, Trading & Selling Tokens (50:25) Ads (Skale, Katana) (51:56) Investor Relations Advice For Founders (55:03) DATs Explored (01:12:29) Ads (LEDN) (01:13:39) Convergence (01:17:58) What Sectors Benefit Most From DATs — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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