The Ether Machine Chairman: Real Risk of DATs And Who Wins From Stripe And Circle’s Chains | Weekly Roundup
The Ether Machine Chairman: Real Risk of DATs And Who Wins From Stripe And Circle’s Chains | Weekly Roundup
267 days agoEmpireBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 20 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Ethereum (ETH) is a top investment, but its value is best realized by actively generating yield through staking and restaking rather than holding it passively. To maximize returns, consider using protocols like EigenLayer to restake your ETH, which can add significant yield on top of base staking rewards. For additional, relatively safe yield, engage with established "blue-chip" DeFi protocols such as Aave (AAVE). Be cautious with upcoming spot ETH ETFs as they may offer inferior returns; instead, investigate well-structured, pure-play Ethereum public treasury companies that prioritize increasing ETH-per-share. In contrast, for a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin (BTC), a simple low-cost ETF is considered a sensible and straightforward investment vehicle.

Detailed Analysis

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The guest, Andrew Keyes, is a self-proclaimed "ETH maxi," believing strongly in its long-term potential and viewing it as a productive asset, unlike Bitcoin.
  • The discussion highlights that 90% of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) in crypto, as defined by accounting standards board FASB, are on Ethereum, suggesting a strong power-law dynamic similar to Google's dominance in search.
  • The core investment thesis presented is that the value of ETH can be significantly enhanced through various yield-generating activities that are native to the network. These include:
    • Staking: The base layer of yield, currently around 3%.
    • Restaking: Using protocols like EigenLayer to secure other networks and earn additional yield on top of staking. For example, restaking to EigenDA could add 45 basis points (0.45%).
    • DeFi: Engaging in "safer" DeFi strategies with established protocols like Aave to further enhance yield without taking on excessive price risk.
  • The Ethereum Foundation's decision to make Layer 2 (L2) transaction space cheap (via EIP-4844) is seen as a long-term strategy to attract developers and applications, which could lead to increased value accrual to ETH in the future as the network becomes ubiquitous and pricing power increases.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a very bullish case for holding Ethereum.
  • Investors should not just hold ETH passively. The most significant opportunity lies in its "productivity" — the ability to earn yield through staking, restaking, and DeFi.
  • Passive vehicles like the upcoming spot ETH ETFs are presented as structurally flawed because they are unlikely to capture the full yield potential due to regulatory and technical constraints (like long unstaking times). An investor in an ETF might only get a fraction of the possible yield.
  • The long-term value of ETH is tied to its adoption as the primary settlement layer for thousands of L2s and applications like those from Coinbase (Base) and Robinhood.

Public Crypto Treasury Companies (DATs)

  • This was the central theme of the podcast. These are publicly traded companies, similar to MicroStrategy (MSTR), that hold crypto on their balance sheet. The guest's company, The Ether Machine, is one such vehicle for Ethereum.
  • The Bull Case: These vehicles can be superior to ETFs for productive assets like ETH because they are actively managed and can engage in staking, restaking, and DeFi to generate a yield that could be double, triple, or quadruple that of an ETF. They can also use financial instruments like convertible debt to acquire more assets, similar to MicroStrategy's successful strategy.
  • Key Risks & What to Watch For:
    • Structure: Many DATs are formed via reverse takeovers of "dying shell companies" (e.g., failed biotech or mining firms). This is a major red flag, as the new company inherits old liabilities, management costs, and becomes a "honeypot for class action litigation." A cleaner structure is a de-SPAC of a new, clean entity.
    • Dilution: Be extremely wary of companies that aggressively sell new shares "at-the-money" (ATM). This dilutes existing shareholders. The most important metric is not the total assets a company holds, but the amount of crypto held per share.
    • Asset Quality: Some DATs may hold large amounts of illiquid, locked-up tokens from smaller projects but value them on their books at a 1-to-1 market price. This is misleading as those assets cannot be sold at that price.
    • Strategy: The guest is skeptical of multi-asset DATs (e.g., holding a mix of BTC, ETH, SOL). He believes institutional investors prefer pure-play exposure to a single asset.

Takeaways

  • DATs are a new and complex way to invest in crypto. They offer the potential for higher returns than ETFs but come with significant structural risks.
  • Before investing in a DAT, investors must do their homework. Key questions to ask:
    • How was the company formed? (Clean SPAC vs. risky reverse takeover)
    • Is management's primary goal to increase the crypto-per-share? Do they have their own money invested?
    • How does the company value its assets, especially if they are illiquid?
    • How aggressively is the company diluting shareholders through ATM offerings?
  • The discussion suggests that well-structured, pure-play DATs focused on Ethereum could be a superior investment to the ETH ETFs.

Restaking & EigenLayer

  • Restaking is presented as the next major evolution in crypto yield, building on top of standard staking.
  • EigenLayer is the leading protocol in this space. It allows staked ETH to be used to secure other applications and middleware (called AVSs), earning an additional layer of yield for the staker.
  • The guest is very bullish on this theme, having invested in EigenLayer personally and seeing it as a core part of his company's yield strategy.
  • While many of the 300+ AVSs may fail, the top 15-20 are expected to find product-market fit and generate meaningful, sustainable yield.

Takeaways

  • Restaking is a key theme for Ethereum investors looking to maximize their yield.
  • It introduces a new layer of complexity and risk, but also a significant source of potential return that will not be available in passive ETF products.
  • Protocols like EigenLayer are central to this emerging ecosystem.

Other Assets & Companies

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Mentioned as the "category defining winner" with a clear store-of-value narrative.
  • Unlike ETH, it is not a productive asset (it doesn't have native staking).
  • Takeaway: For a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin, a low-cost ETF is a perfectly sensible investment vehicle. The complexities of a DAT are less necessary.

Circle (USDC) & Stripe

  • Circle: The analysis was bearish on Circle's strategy. Their launch of a new blockchain, ARK, is seen as a defensive and "short-sighted" move.
    • Risk Factor: Circle's main revenue source (yield on treasury reserves) is threatened by falling interest rates.
    • Weakness: They have poor margins due to revenue-sharing deals (like with Coinbase) and do not own the end-customer relationship.
  • Stripe: The analysis was bullish on Stripe's crypto strategy. They are launching their own L1 blockchain, Tempo.
    • Strength: Stripe is in a much better position because they own the distribution and have millions of merchant customers.
    • Strategy: By creating their own full-stack payments network, they can offer a superior product and control the entire experience, making it a logical and powerful move.

Aave (AAVE)

  • Mentioned as an example of a "blue-chip" DeFi protocol that is considered "pretty safe" due to its long history and massive value secured (described as a "$50 billion bug bounty").
  • Takeaway: For investors or vehicles looking to engage in DeFi for yield enhancement, established and battle-tested protocols like Aave are the preferred choice over newer, riskier applications.

Alt L1s (Solana, Cardano, etc.)

  • The guest expressed a bearish/skeptical view on creating DATs for cryptocurrencies outside of the top 2 (Bitcoin and Ethereum), though he conceded it might work for the top 20.
  • Reasoning: These assets are far more illiquid and lack the "Lindy effect" and network dominance of BTC and ETH.
  • Takeaway: The "juice is not worth the squeeze" for most of these assets. The operational costs and risks of running a public company for a smaller, less liquid asset are likely too high. Investors should be cautious about DATs focused on smaller-cap cryptocurrencies.
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Episode Description
For this week’s roundup, Andrew Keys, from The Ether Machine, joins Yano, Santi and Rob to dive into the unique value prop that The Ether Machine offers investors, his thoughts on the overall DAT landscape and how DATs, outside of BTC and ETH, are likely too far down the risk curve. They also discuss the rise and proliferation of private L1s like Stripe’s and Circle’s and explore who the winners and losers will be of these new projects.  -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Andrew: https://x.com/AK_EtherMachine Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- GEODNET is the world’s largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries. Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com] -- Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes. Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire --"Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3. Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"": - Transactions posted to the blockchain - Compatibility with TradFi rails - Integrated DeFi featuresUR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance.Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier.Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'." -- Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC’s utility to DeFi. Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=website_promo Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz -- Chapters: (0:00) Introduction (2:06) Andrew Keys’ Background (3:24) Why ETH Not BTC (15:14) Why DATs (24:44) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (26:21) Has The Vision Been Co-opted? (35:57) DAT Rollups + M&As (38:59) DATs Beyond BTC + ETH (43:03) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (44:40) ETFs Are Flawed (50:34) Other Worthwhile Ecosystems (54:58) L1 Private Chain Launches (1:06:25) Ads (Mantle, Citrea) (1:08:04) Stripe’s L1 + Paradigm (1:13:32) Weekly Content Recs -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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