Nearing The DAT Peak With Avichal Garg | Weekly Roundup
Nearing The DAT Peak With Avichal Garg | Weekly Roundup
281 days agoEmpireBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 27 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

For exposure to the Digital Asset Treasury theme, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is presented as the highest quality option due to its experienced leadership and superior debt structure. Investors interested in Ethereum could consider newer vehicles from credible teams, like ETHZilla, which plan to generate additional returns through on-chain yield. Exercise extreme caution with most new treasury vehicles, as many are considered opportunistic and carry significant risk from short-term debt. For most individuals, a simpler strategy is to bypass these complex structures and invest directly in the underlying assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The current crypto cycle may have more room to run, fueled by new institutional products like Bitcoin ETFs and an increasingly positive U.S. regulatory environment.

Detailed Analysis

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

  • This is the primary theme of the discussion, referring to companies that raise capital (often through debt) to buy and hold large amounts of a single digital asset on their balance sheet, similar to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
  • The speakers view this as a capital markets arbitrage. Companies tap debt markets at a relatively low interest rate (e.g., 5-10%) to buy an asset they believe will appreciate much more.
  • The market is currently experiencing a wave of these, moving beyond Bitcoin to include Ethereum, Solana, and even longer-tail assets like Sui and BNB.
  • There is a lot of froth in this market, with many new DATs launching that are described as "opportunistic" and "money grabs." The speakers compare the current environment to the ICO cycle.
  • A key risk factor is the debt structure. Most new DATs have worse terms than MicroStrategy, often with short durations (2-3 years). A bear market could force liquidations if the debt comes due when asset prices are depressed, creating a "gnarly" situation.
  • The speakers believe there will be a flight to quality, where DATs with credible, long-term-oriented sponsors will succeed, while opportunistic ones will fail.
  • An "activist" or "roll-up" strategy is expected to emerge. When the market turns, many DATs will likely trade below their Net Asset Value (NAV). A larger player like MicroStrategy could acquire these distressed vehicles at a discount.

Takeaways

  • DATs are generally considered high-risk, high-reward vehicles. The speakers caution that they are more suitable for sophisticated investors who can analyze complex capital structures.
  • The average retail investor could "get burned" and should be "really careful". Buying the underlying asset (BTC, ETH, etc.) directly is presented as a simpler, less complex alternative for most people.
  • If considering a DAT, investors should scrutinize the sponsors (are they long-term believers or tourists?), the debt terms (duration, interest rate), and the premium to NAV. Many of these vehicles trade at a high premium, which could compress or turn into a discount, leading to losses even if the underlying asset performs well.
  • Be wary of how NAV is calculated. Some DATs include locked tokens (like lockSOL) in their NAV at the full market price, which is misleading. Investors should look at the secondary market price for these locked assets to determine the true NAV.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • Michael Saylor's company is presented as the pioneer and gold standard for DATs.
  • Saylor has a significant head start and has secured sophisticated, long-duration debt with favorable terms that newer DATs cannot replicate.
  • A key part of Saylor's success is that he is seen as a genuine "Bitcoiner" and is "of the community." This creates a flywheel where the Bitcoin community wants him to succeed and directs capital towards his vehicle.
  • It is predicted that Saylor will be a major player in the eventual consolidation of the DAT market. He could acquire other Bitcoin DATs or even DATs holding other assets (like BNB), sell the underlying crypto, and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • MicroStrategy is viewed as the most established and potentially most durable of the DATs due to its experienced leadership, strong capital structure, and community support.
  • The company's potential M&A strategy could allow it to acquire assets for "$0.90 on the dollar" in the future, further increasing its Bitcoin-per-share metric.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Ethereum is considered one of the few assets, alongside Bitcoin and possibly Solana, for which a DAT model could be sustainable long-term.
  • The discussion highlights ETHZilla, a new ETH treasury vehicle that the speakers' firm (Electric Capital) is involved with as an asset manager.
  • A key differentiator for ETH-based DATs is the ability to generate on-chain yield through DeFi activities like staking, which can create additional cash flow for the business. The ETHZilla team plans to implement a yield generation program.
  • The strategy for ETHZilla was to assemble a team of long-term, credible Ethereum community members (like leaders from Lido, EigenLayer, etc.) to create a "community vehicle" similar to what MicroStrategy is for Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • For investors interested in ETH exposure through a public vehicle, DATs like ETHZilla or SBET (from Joe Lubin) are presented as options.
  • The ability to generate yield from the underlying ETH could make these businesses more robust than those that simply hold the asset.
  • Investors should apply the same "flight to quality" lens: bet on the teams that have been in the ecosystem for a long time and are likely to navigate the next bear market.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana is mentioned as another major asset for which DATs are being created.
  • A specific complexity highlighted is DATs holding locked SOL (lockSOL). These are tokens that are not yet liquid and are vesting over time.
  • These locked tokens often trade at a significant discount on secondary markets, but some DATs misleadingly value them at the full price of liquid SOL in their NAV calculations.

Takeaways

  • When evaluating a Solana DAT, it is crucial to understand if its NAV includes locked tokens.
  • Investors should find the secondary market price for lockSOL to calculate the "true" NAV and avoid overpaying based on inflated headline numbers.

Broader Market & Regulatory Sentiment

  • A key thesis is that we have "never actually seen a proper crypto bubble" because previous cycles lacked the deep involvement of Wall Street. This is the first cycle with institutional rails like Bitcoin ETFs.
  • The speakers believe the real speculative frenzy of this cycle may happen in traditional markets (like with DATs) rather than on-chain, simply because the pools of capital are so much larger.
  • The current market is seen as "not that crazy yet." The indicator of a top is when people are in disbelief, saying "what the f is going on," and the speakers feel we are not there yet.
  • There is significant bullish sentiment around the changing regulatory landscape in the U.S. The White House's crypto report and the SEC's "Project Crypto" are seen as historic, positive developments.
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) allowing clients to buy crypto with credit cards and their CEO Jamie Dimon's softening stance ("We will accommodate Bitcoin") are seen as massive signals of mainstream adoption.

Takeaways

  • The current market may have more room to run, as the "mania" phase, driven by deep-pocketed traditional finance, may just be beginning.
  • The increasingly pro-crypto stance from the U.S. government and major financial institutions like JPM de-risks the asset class for large pools of capital (pensions, endowments, etc.) and could be a major long-term tailwind.
  • The partnership between JPMorgan Chase and Coinbase (COIN) makes it easier than ever for retail to enter the market, which could fuel further demand.

Creator Economy (Zora)

  • This was discussed as a speculative investment thesis: the idea that capital markets will form around creators, allowing them to monetize beyond simple ads and sponsorships.
  • The platform Zora is mentioned in this context.
  • However, the speakers express skepticism, noting that this thesis has been around for nearly a decade and has failed to gain traction.
  • A key challenge is misaligned incentives. The model may work for small, up-and-coming artists, but established creators (like Taylor Swift) have little incentive to financialize their brand and open themselves up to the volatility and pressure of a traded token.

Takeaways

  • Investing in the "creator economy" theme is highly speculative. While the concept is interesting, it has a history of failed attempts and significant structural hurdles to overcome.
  • Investors should be cautious about theses that rely on established figures adopting a model that may be detrimental to their existing brand and business.
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Episode Description
Happy Friday! On this Roundup, Rob is officially announced as the third host, Avichal join the pod to discuss DATs, and beyond DATs the White House Crypto Report is explored, Zora creator tokens, and the BIG news of the collaboration between Coinbase and Chase to push crypto into mass adoption orbit.  --Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Avichal: https://x.com/avichal Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- GEODNET is the world’s largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries. Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com] -- Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes. Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire -- "Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3. Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"": - Transactions posted to the blockchain - Compatibility with TradFi rails - Integrated DeFi featuresUR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance.Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier.Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'." -- Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC’s utility to DeFi. Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=website_promo Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz -- Chapters: (02:14) DATs Explored (19:37) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (21:11) ETHZilla (30:32) DAT KPIs (36:15) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (37:49) DAT FUD (51:15) Ads (Mantle,Citrea) (52:54) Native Token or DAT (01:00:06) White House Crypto Report (01:07:29) Coinbase X Chase (01:11:17) Zora + Creator Tokens (01:19:21) Content Recs — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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