Macro Updates, Industry Narratives & Big Tech Coming For Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap Bonus Ep
Macro Updates, Industry Narratives & Big Tech Coming For Crypto | Permissionless IV Recap Bonus Ep
313 days agoEmpireBlockworks
Podcast38 min 56 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider investing in companies adopting the Bitcoin Treasury strategy, where firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) issue debt to acquire Bitcoin. A prime example is Japan's MetaPlanet (TYO: 3350), which offers a tax-advantaged proxy for Bitcoin in markets without spot ETFs. For direct crypto exposure, focus on mature DeFi protocols with proven revenue models like Aave (AAVE) and Maple (MPL). Avoid indiscriminately buying new altcoins, as the era of easy gains is over and institutional capital is not flowing into this sector. Alternatively, look at publicly traded firms like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), which are capitalizing on the high-margin crypto trading market.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin Treasuries / Token Acquisition Companies (Theme)

  • This is a major investment theme discussed, described as companies that issue debt to acquire Bitcoin for their corporate treasury, following the strategy pioneered by Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR).
  • The sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish. One speaker states this trend "is going to get 100 times larger."
  • These companies are seen as the "new tokens" because they offer a logo, a symbol, and beta exposure to Bitcoin, but with the added benefit of being listed on major stock exchanges like the NYSE and NASDAQ, which have hundreds of millions of users.
  • The strategy thrives on "natural market asymmetries." For example, in countries with high taxes on direct crypto ownership or a lack of ETFs, these stocks provide a more efficient way to gain Bitcoin exposure.
  • The speakers believe this strategy will be replicated in capital markets all over the world, including Africa, Europe, and Indonesia.

Takeaways

  • Consider investing in publicly traded companies that are adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy. These are viewed as a new, powerful way to gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerage accounts.
  • This trend is considered to be in its very early stages. The speakers believe there is significant room for growth as more companies globally adopt this model.
  • Look for these companies in markets outside the U.S. where direct Bitcoin investment might be less tax-efficient or accessible, as this is where they may have the biggest advantage.

MetaPlanet (TYO: 3350)

  • A specific Japanese company highlighted for successfully executing the "Michael Saylor strategy" of acquiring Bitcoin for its treasury.
  • It was mentioned as the best-performing stock in Japan at the time of the discussion.
  • Its success is attributed to several factors creating a "natural market asymmetry":
    • A weak Japanese yen.
    • The absence of Bitcoin ETFs in Japan.
    • A high tax rate on selling self-custodied Bitcoin (around 50%) compared to a much lower rate for stocks (around 10%).

Takeaways

  • MetaPlanet serves as a prime case study for the "Bitcoin Treasury" investment theme.
  • Investors in Japan or those with access to the Tokyo Stock Exchange could view MetaPlanet as a tax-efficient proxy for Bitcoin exposure.
  • The success of MetaPlanet suggests that similar opportunities may arise for companies in other countries with comparable market conditions (e.g., currency weakness, lack of ETFs, unfavorable crypto tax laws).

Circle (USDC)

  • Discussed in the context of its potential IPO and current valuation in private markets.
  • There is conflicting sentiment. One speaker (Felix) explicitly stated he believes it is "overpriced" and that investors should "not buy Circle."
  • The bullish counterargument is that Circle has an "absurdly profitable" business model, especially if the proposed "Genius Act" passes. This legislation would restrict stablecoin issuers from passing interest earned on their reserves (U.S. T-bills) to users, giving Circle a 100% net interest margin.
  • It is currently seen as the only public market vehicle to get exposure to the stablecoin narrative.

Takeaways

  • Be cautious about Circle's valuation. At least one analyst on the panel considers it overpriced, suggesting a "wait and see" approach, especially until the post-IPO lockup period expires.
  • The "Genius Act" is a key catalyst to watch. If it passes, Circle's profitability could increase dramatically, potentially justifying a higher valuation.
  • Long-term competition is a major risk. The speakers believe that major banks like Bank of America will eventually launch their own stablecoins, leveraging their massive distribution to compete directly with Circle.

Altcoins (General Theme)

  • The overall sentiment towards the broad altcoin market is bearish to neutral.
  • The era of the "free lunch," where investors could buy any new token and expect significant returns, is considered over.
  • The speakers note a fundamental problem: most altcoins lack a clear claim on equity or cash flows, which is why the "equity world" (like Bitcoin treasury stocks) is performing better.
  • There is "no mechanical move" of capital from the broader economy (e.g., money market funds) into on-chain altcoins. When traditional investors move into crypto, the marginal dollar is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, the upcoming Ethereum ETF, and treasury companies, not the long tail of altcoins.

Takeaways

  • The strategy of indiscriminately buying new altcoins is no longer considered viable. Investors should be much more selective.
  • Focus on tokens that have a clear link to revenue or cash flows, as the market is maturing and prioritizing fundamentals.
  • Do not expect a broad-based altcoin rally simply because of positive macro conditions (like fiscal deficits). The capital flows are not currently directed towards them.

Mature DeFi Protocols (Theme)

  • The podcast suggests that the DeFi sector is becoming "more serious" and maturing.
  • Protocols that have established business models, generate real revenue, and offer value to token holders are the ones succeeding.
  • Specific examples of these more mature, successful protocols mentioned were Aave (AAVE), Syrup, and Maple (MPL).

Takeaways

  • Focus on established DeFi "blue chips" that have a proven track record of generating fees and have sustainable business models.
  • When evaluating DeFi investments, look for protocols with clear mechanisms for value accrual to the token, such as revenue sharing or buybacks.
  • Avoid "vaporware" or projects without a clear product-market fit, as the market is no longer rewarding them as it did in previous cycles.

Big Tech & FinTech in Crypto (Theme)

  • The movement of large tech and finance firms into crypto is considered "real this time" and not just a marketing gimmick.
  • Companies like Stripe, Robinhood, and Coinbase (COIN) are aggressively moving into the space.
  • They are attracted by the high profitability of the crypto trading market, where users are willing to pay significant fees (1-3% per trade). The success of platforms like PumpFun and HyperLiquid is cited as proof of this revenue potential.
  • This trend is seen as a double-edged sword:
    • Good: It legitimizes the crypto space.
    • Bad: These firms represent a major competitive threat to existing DeFi applications due to their superior user experience (UX) and massive distribution channels. One speaker noted, "If I'm a DeFi developer, I'm kind of nervous."

Takeaways

  • The entry of Big Tech is a validation of crypto's long-term potential, particularly in trading and payments.
  • Consider the competitive threat to decentralized applications. An investment in a DeFi protocol could be at risk if a company like Robinhood launches a similar, more user-friendly product.
  • This could be a bullish signal for the stocks of public companies like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as they tap into new, high-margin revenue streams from crypto.
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Episode Description
This week, we're excited to share with our community a bonus episode which recaps PERMISSIONLESS IV, which just took place this past week in Brooklyn, NY. While Santi and Jason are not in this episode, the episode does feature some of the biggest names in the Blockworks podcast family and we hope you enjoy all the alpha! -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Marc - https://x.com/0xMarcB Follow Sandeep - https://x.com/sandeepnailwal Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 50 Million users over $11 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at https://skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork -- Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates] -- Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Expansion! As Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing 20% of global crypto, it remains the top choice for securing your assets. Buy a LEDGER™ device now, and build confidently, knowing your BTC, ETH, SOL, and more are safe. Buy now on https://shop.ledger.com/?r=1da180a5de00. -- Ledn is the leading platform for Bitcoin-backed loans, offering a secure and transparent way to unlock liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Ledn has issued over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and has never lost a single satoshi of client assets, earning a reputation as the name you can trust in the crypto space. Visit https://www.ledn.io to learn more. -- Chapters: 00:00 Intro 01:21 Permissionless IV Takeaways 07:21 Big Industry Narrartives & Themes 12:24 Ads (Katana) 13:28 Stablecoins’ Future 19:05 Macro Outlook 22:08 Ads (Katana) 23:12 Big Tech Overloads 31:03 Predictions We Made That Were Wrong — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Empire features interviews with top crypto founders to get the real stories that aren’t shared elsewhere. Empire is your look behind the curtain of the crypto industry. We release two episodes per week: guest interviews on Monday and a weekly roundup on Friday.