Cybersecurity Panic, Nationalizing AI, The Model Squeeze & Can't Own Anything
Cybersecurity Panic, Nationalizing AI, The Model Squeeze & Can't Own Anything
1 hour ago•Empire•Blockworks
Podcast1 hr 6 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • No high-conviction, company-specific buy or sell trade was identified; CrowdStrike (CRWD) was mentioned only as an example, without valuation analysis or a price target.
  • Cybersecurity demand may rise as AI makes attacks cheaper, but the expected 6–12 months of heightened vulnerability is one speaker’s view, not a reliable forecast.
  • Treat the reported $2.5 billion Visa (V)–Fireblocks deal as an unconfirmed rumor, not an investment catalyst.
  • The discussion offers no specific recommendation or price target for Bitcoin (BTC), gold, Treasuries, or the named software and technology stocks.
Detailed Analysis

Cybersecurity Sector and CrowdStrike (CRWD)

  • Speakers described a rise in AI-assisted cyberattacks. They said the cost of finding and exploiting vulnerabilities is falling, and that crypto has already seen a record number of hack incidents by count this year, though not by dollars stolen.
  • One speaker expected a rough 6–12 months for vulnerable websites and services, followed by stronger security practices among the systems that remain.
  • Governments may take a larger role in defending public infrastructure, including funding code analysis and monitoring. This was a policy view, not a specific investment proposal.
  • CrowdStrike was cited as an example of a cybersecurity stock that has risen sharply, but the speakers offered no company-specific analysis or valuation.

Takeaways

  • Cybersecurity demand could benefit from more frequent and cheaper attacks, but the transcript does not identify a particular stock as a buy.
  • Treat the 6–12 month outlook as one speaker’s expectation, not a forecast. The discussion also emphasized that the threat landscape is developing quickly.

AI Companies and Compute

  • Anthropic was described as having strong margins, particularly on API services, and as capturing a premium for its leading models.
  • OpenAI may be shifting toward becoming a control plane or router for customers’ AI spending, allowing users to access other models through its systems. This could make its business less dependent on having the very best model.
  • The speakers argued that AI providers may face a strategic split: serve low-cost models at scale or compete at the frontier. They viewed the middle of that market as less clearly attractive.
  • Some early-stage AI labs were described as examples of irrational exuberance, with valuations of roughly $3–4 billion despite limited evidence of a business model.
  • The speakers also discussed the risk that substantial data-center investment depends on continued demand and high GPU prices. A sharp decline in AI valuations or infrastructure returns could create financial stress.
  • Government ownership of AI labs was discussed as a possibility, especially in a future financial crisis or if advanced AI becomes a critical national-security asset. The speakers disagreed about the likelihood and timing; this was speculation, not a recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to a potentially important distinction between companies with a clear path to monetizing AI and those relying mainly on future model advances.
  • AI infrastructure investment carries exposure to high capital spending and the possibility that GPU prices or demand disappoint.
  • The nationalization discussion is highly uncertain and should not be treated as a near-term investment catalyst.

Fireblocks and Visa (V)

  • A report suggested that Visa might acquire crypto infrastructure company Fireblocks for $2.5 billion. Visa did not comment, and Fireblocks reportedly responded, “news to us,” so the rumor was unconfirmed.
  • Fireblocks’ last reported valuation was $8 billion. One speaker estimated its revenue at about $150 million, but this was an estimate, not confirmed financial guidance.
  • The speakers said Fireblocks’ earlier valuation reflected expectations of continued rapid growth. They argued that a more moderate growth outlook would justify a lower valuation.
  • They also noted that a reported deal price might not equal cash paid at closing: earn-outs or other conditions could make the eventual value lower or less certain.

Takeaways

  • Do not treat the rumored $2.5 billion price as a confirmed offer or completed transaction.
  • For Visa, the discussion offered no specific view on the stock. Any investment case would depend on the actual deal terms and strategic value of Fireblocks.

Crypto and Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Speakers said crypto has seen an all-time high number of on-chain hack incidents this year, while clarifying that this does not mean the highest dollar amount stolen.
  • They estimated that attackers obtained about $1 million in crypto through the Railway incident discussed on the show.
  • The claim that Bitcoin is “dead” because of quantum computing and AI appeared as part of a market-pessimism meme; the speakers did not present it as a substantiated conclusion.
  • One speaker said investors with a longer time horizon who hold “quality names” need not react to every negative headline, but did not identify specific crypto assets or define “quality.”

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights security risk as a continuing concern for crypto, especially as AI may make attacks cheaper to conduct.
  • The transcript provides no Bitcoin price target or specific crypto recommendation. Consider the security risks separately from the broader market’s fear-driven claims about quantum computing.

SaaS and Software

  • The speakers pushed back on the idea that SaaS is simply “dead.” They argued that existing businesses are unlikely to disappear wholesale, even as AI coding tools make it easier to build or replace software.
  • One speaker suggested that extreme negative headlines about SaaS could create buying opportunities, but gave no company names or valuation criteria.
  • They also noted that AI-assisted coding could help businesses modernize outdated websites and software.

Takeaways

  • The conversation supports a selective view: AI may change software development and competition without eliminating every software business.
  • The “buying opportunity” comment was general and not tied to specific stocks, financial metrics, or a time horizon.

Gold and U.S. Treasuries

  • A meme discussed on the show claimed investors could not own gold because it might be made in a lab. A speaker called the claim hyperbolic.
  • The speaker cited an investment-bank note saying that, over 30 years, there had been only three days when the 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than 15 basis points while gold fell more than 2%. They linked two such instances to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Inflation and government borrowing were mentioned as concerns for bonds in the meme, but the speakers did not develop a specific bond outlook.

Takeaways

  • The discussion framed the simultaneous moves in gold and Treasury yields as unusual, not as a clear signal to buy or sell either asset.
  • No gold or bond price target, recommendation, or investment timeline was provided.

Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), and Google (GOOGL)

  • Tesla was mentioned as a company whose earnings call listeners might find useful for understanding Elon Musk’s views. The speaker recommended listening to the call as content, not as a stock recommendation.
  • Meta and Google were mentioned in the context of public concern about large technology companies’ AI capital spending and cash flow. The speakers noted that alarming headlines can shape market reactions, but did not assess either company’s fundamentals.
  • The podcast’s closing discussion said the overall market remained near an all-time high despite recent volatility, and one speaker said they were relatively untroubled by short-term selling if investing with a one- to two-year horizon.

Takeaways

  • The transcript provides no company-specific valuation analysis or buy/sell recommendation for these stocks.
  • Treat comments about market volatility and longer horizons as the speakers’ views, not as a substitute for evaluating each company’s spending, cash flow, and business outlook.
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Episode Description
Is AI about to make the whole internet a target? This week, we unpack the PHP exploit wave and why crypto saw this cybersecurity attack pattern first. We also explore whether the AI labs get nationalized, where AI's irrational exuberance lives, Visa's rumored Fireblocks deal, and why it feels like nothing is investable right now. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 From the B-List to the A-List: Haseeb & Zaki Join 01:21 Is AI Breaking Cybersecurity? 10:22 Where Are The AI-Powered Cyberattacks? 15:44 Can AI Defend Against Itself? 20:34 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 21:45 Should The Government Control AI Labs? 28:42 Will AI Labs Become Nationalized? 32:55 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London) 34:11 Is The AI Boom Overvalued? 38:38 Who Is Actually Winning In AI? 43:16 Does The World Need More AI Labs? 46:27 Is Crypto Custody Consolidating? 53:53 Crypto's Next Wave Of M&A 57:56 What Is The Market Telling Us? 01:01:22 Content Of The Week FOLLOW THE SHOW › Empire – https://x.com/theempirepod › Jason – https://x.com/jasonyanowitz › Santi – https://x.com/santiagoroel › Hasseeb – https://x.com/hosseeb › Zaki – https://x.com/zmanian › Telegram – https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. http://fidelity.com/crypto EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11 https://blockworks.com/events RESOURCES › Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection: https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era › Start building with the Blockworks Unified API https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About Empire
Empire

Empire

By Blockworks

Empire features interviews with top crypto founders to get the real stories that aren’t shared elsewhere. Empire is your look behind the curtain of the crypto industry. We release two episodes per week: guest interviews on Monday and a weekly roundup on Friday.