Crypto’s in a 20-Year Secular Bull Market | Weekly Roundup
Crypto’s in a 20-Year Secular Bull Market | Weekly Roundup
190 days agoEmpireBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 12 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider Western Union (WU) as an undervalued turnaround play, as its new stablecoin partnership with Solana could be a major catalyst for the stock, which currently trades at a low 4.15x P/E ratio. For direct exposure to the growing tokenization of real-world assets, watch for Securitize, which is set to go public and could become the primary stock for this theme. Investors bullish on long-term technology trends like AI but seeking lower risk can gain broad exposure through a passive investment in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). The current crypto market is viewed as being in a 'rebirth' phase, potentially setting up a multi-decade bull market starting around 2025. Within this long-term trend, focus on crypto projects and companies that are generating real, on-chain revenue.

Detailed Analysis

Crypto Market (Overall Theme)

  • A bold prediction was made that the crypto industry is entering a 20-year secular bull market starting around 2025.
  • The current state of the market is compared to the internet in 2003-2004, following the dot-com boom and bust, now entering a "rebirth" phase.
  • The speaker believes that while there will be short-term volatility ("chop"), the long-term trend line for the next two decades is upwards.
  • This long-term trend is driven by the mega-trend of not just assets, but entire companies and real revenue moving on-chain.

Takeaways

  • Investors should consider a long-term perspective on the crypto market, looking past short-term price fluctuations.
  • The current period could be a foundational entry point, similar to investing in internet companies in the early 2000s before their massive growth phase.
  • Focus on projects and companies that are generating real, on-chain revenue, as this is seen as the next major driver of the industry.

Securitize

  • Securitize is going public via a SPAC deal at a $1.25 billion valuation.
  • The company is a key player in the tokenization space, acting as a transfer agent and fund administrator for tokenized securities. They acquired MG Stover, the largest fund administrator in crypto.
  • It was mentioned that the company has a top-line revenue of approximately $86 million.
  • The investment thesis is compared to that of Circle, which saw its stock perform well because it was the only publicly traded asset for investors to get exposure to the stablecoin theme. Securitize could become the go-to public stock for the tokenization theme.
  • There's a debate on its fundamental value. While the business of a transfer agent is traditionally a "sleepy" and low-margin business, the company is positioned to ride the "secular tailwind" of tokenization.

Takeaways

  • Securitize offers public market investors a unique, direct way to invest in the growing theme of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
  • The investment case is less about the company's current profitability and more of a narrative play on the belief that the tokenized asset space will "absolutely explode."
  • Investors should be aware that this is a "lazy thinking" play, meaning its stock price may be driven more by market hype for tokenization than by its underlying business fundamentals, which could lead to volatility.

Western Union (WU)

  • Western Union, the world's largest remittance operator, announced a partnership with Solana to launch its own stablecoin.
  • The company's stock is described as "deeply undervalued," trading at a 3.95 billion market cap and a very low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.15x.
  • Historically, Western Union's management has been slow to adopt digital technologies, causing the stock to be "left for dead" by the market, especially compared to higher-valued fintech competitors like Remitly.
  • Despite its low valuation, the company possesses a massive global distribution network and powerful brand recognition, which is a significant moat.
  • A bet was made between the hosts: one believes Western Union (WU) stock will outperform Solana (SOL) over the next six months, while the other took the opposite side.

Takeaways

  • Western Union could be a "value" or "turnaround" play. The company has strong fundamentals and distribution, and its new stablecoin strategy could be a major catalyst for growth that the market is currently overlooking.
  • This move into stablecoins could help the company digitize its business and improve its margin profile, potentially leading to a re-rating of its stock.
  • Investors looking for a lower-risk, value-oriented way to get exposure to the crypto space could consider WU, as it combines a traditional, profitable business with a new, high-growth crypto initiative.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana's partnership with Western Union is a major development for the ecosystem, bringing a legacy financial giant on-chain.
  • There is speculation that the Solana Foundation paid Western Union between $25 million and $50 million for a six-month exclusivity deal.
  • This practice of foundations paying for partnerships and ecosystem growth is described as common in both crypto and traditional business (e.g., Amazon paying partners to build for Alexa). The key question is whether it will generate a positive return on investment (ROI) for the Solana ecosystem.
  • The goal for Solana is to capture the massive payment flows from Western Union, which would significantly increase on-chain activity and validate its use case as a high-throughput chain for payments.

Takeaways

  • The Western Union deal is a significant bullish catalyst for Solana, demonstrating its ability to attract major traditional finance players.
  • Investors should monitor whether this partnership translates into real, sustained transaction volume on the Solana network after the 6-month exclusivity period ends.
  • The "pay-to-play" strategy is a double-edged sword. While it can kickstart growth, its long-term success depends on the partner (Western Union) fully committing to the ecosystem beyond the initial incentives.

ZeroHash

  • ZeroHash is rumored to be in the process of being acquired by MasterCard for a price between $1.5 to $2 billion.
  • The company provides the underlying technology and licensing for other companies to offer crypto services. Its business is described as "brokerage as a service."
  • They have an impressive list of major clients, including Interactive Brokers, Stripe, BlackRock's BUIDL fund, DraftKings, and MoonPay.
  • This potential acquisition is part of a larger trend of major financial infrastructure companies (like MasterCard, Visa, Coinbase) buying crypto infrastructure providers to integrate digital assets into their services.

Takeaways

  • The acquisition highlights the immense value being placed on the "picks and shovels" of the crypto industry—the infrastructure companies that enable others to operate.
  • This is a strong validation signal for the crypto space, showing that legacy financial giants like MasterCard see a long-term future in digital assets and are willing to pay billions to secure their position.

MegaEth

  • MegaEth is a new blockchain project that recently conducted a highly successful Initial Coin Offering (ICO).
  • The ICO was 28x oversubscribed, with $1.39 billion committed for a $50 million raise, indicating massive retail and community interest.
  • The final valuation was over $1 billion, but pre-market futures on platforms like Hyperliquid were trading at a $4 to $5 billion valuation, suggesting strong immediate demand.
  • The project is noted for its focus on community distribution and has been experimenting with new token launch models.

Takeaways

  • MegaEth demonstrates that there is still significant appetite for new, high-quality Layer 1/Layer 2 blockchain projects, especially those with strong community engagement.
  • The large discrepancy between the ICO price and pre-market futures suggests high volatility upon launch but also strong bullish sentiment from traders.

AI & Technology (Investment Theme)

  • A parallel is drawn between crypto and AI as two unstoppable, long-term secular growth trends.
  • One host expressed their personal investment strategy as being passively "long technology" through broad market ETFs like the QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust).
  • The growth in the AI sector is described as unprecedented. Anthropic is expected to grow its revenue 10x in one year, from $1 billion to $10 billion. Another unnamed AI application company grew from $1 million to $200 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in just 13 months.

Takeaways

  • For investors who believe in long-term technological disruption but don't want to pick individual winners, a passive strategy of owning tech-focused ETFs like QQQ can provide broad exposure to themes like AI and the digital economy.
  • The growth numbers cited in the AI space are a reminder of the explosive potential of disruptive technologies, a category where crypto also resides.
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Episode Description
This week, we discuss why Blockworks decided to shut down its news room. We then dive into why 2025 marks the start of a new chapter for the crypto industry, why we're still in a bull market, MegaETH's ICO, recent IPOs, M&A and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- Crypto-native institutions and developers demand institutional-grade infrastructure with regulatory clarity and full asset control. Blockdaemon's Earn Stack is a non-custodial platform combining high-performance staking rewards and seamless DeFi integration with no intermediate smart contract or vaults. Programmatically access leading Ethereum & Solana staking rewards, plus DeFi opportunities across lending protocols, DEXs, and AMMs. Book a Demo! -- Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates] -- Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3. Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"": - Transactions posted to the blockchain - Compatibility with TradFi rails - Integrated DeFi features Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier. Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'. -- (00:00) Introduction (01:20) Why Blockworks Closed The News Division (13:27) Blockdaemon Ad (14:04) Katana Ad (14:52) The Next Chapter For Blockworks (20:48) It’s Still A Bull Market (25:12) Securitize Plans To Go Public At a $1.25B Valuation (31:16) Blockdaemon Ad (31:53) Katana Ad (32:39) Western Union Announces USDPT (51:25) Mantle Ad (52:22) Mastercard Looks To Acquire Zerohash (01:00:03) Will Stripe's Tempo Be a Success? (01:06:17) The MegaETH ICO (01:09:44) Content Of The Week -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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Empire features interviews with top crypto founders to get the real stories that aren’t shared elsewhere. Empire is your look behind the curtain of the crypto industry. We release two episodes per week: guest interviews on Monday and a weekly roundup on Friday.