BITCOIN CRASHING! Is The Bull Market Over?
BITCOIN CRASHING! Is The Bull Market Over?
YouTube1 hr 39 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Stay cautious on Bitcoin below $83K; watch $80K and $76K–$77K as support, and reassess the bullish case only after a weekly close back above $83K.
  • The speaker disclosed short-term shorts in Ethereum and NEAR: ETH could test $2,356, while NEAR traders may consider taking profits near $4.10 after its breakdown below $4.50.
  • The speaker also disclosed shorts in NVIDIA (NVDA) and SOXL, citing weak AI-sector sentiment; no price targets were provided, and SOXL carries amplified risk because it is leveraged.
  • Avoid treating conditional chart levels as confirmed support: watch UNI at $4.70 and QNT at $194 for signs of further weakness.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker turned short-term bearish after Bitcoin lost the $82.8K–$83K level, which he had treated as a key bullish threshold. He said the rejection near $87K had already suggested weakening momentum.
  • He identified $80K as the first support to watch, followed by the 50-week moving average near $76K–$77K. He also mentioned $72K as a possible lower support area if those levels fail.
  • A weekly close back above roughly $83K would make the breakdown look more like a “deviation wick” and, in his view, could open a rapid move toward $100K. That upside view is conditional, not a firm forecast.
  • The speaker remains positive on crypto’s long-term prospects, citing tokenized assets and stablecoins, but said short-term price action should guide risk management. He also discussed fears that advances in computing could threaten cryptography, while acknowledging that the implications are uncertain and extend beyond Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s main near-term signal is conditional: below $83K, the speaker is cautious; a durable reclaim would improve the bullish case.
  • Watch the cited support levels rather than assuming the sell-off is either a buying opportunity or the end of the bull market. The transcript gives no certainty that any support will hold.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker disclosed an ETH short and said he had taken partial profits.
  • He pointed to $2,356 as a nearby level he expected ETH could test. His reasoning was primarily based on weak price action and the loss of support, rather than a longer-term negative view of Ethereum.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s trade was a short-term, price-action-based position, not a stated long-term bearish thesis.
  • The transcript’s $2,356 level is a chart reference, not a guaranteed target.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker disclosed a NEAR short, citing a loss of support around $4.50 and a sharp decline after the breakdown.
  • He identified roughly $4.10 as a possible next support area and said he would consider taking profits near support. He later reported closing part of the position after a substantial move.

Takeaways

  • The trade illustrates the speaker’s approach of reducing exposure or taking profits as price approaches a support level.
  • A move back above the broken support would weaken the short-term bearish setup; the transcript does not establish that the decline will continue.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker discussed Zcash in the context of concerns about cryptography. He noted a claim that Zcash may not be vulnerable in the same way as Bitcoin, but cautioned that this does not make Zcash immune to market-wide selling.
  • He said Zcash could offer an accumulation opportunity if it stays well above its prior all-time high. He viewed a fall back below that level as a negative sign.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s constructive view was conditional on Zcash holding above its prior all-time high.
  • Cryptography-related claims in the discussion were presented amid uncertainty; they should not be treated as established technical conclusions.

XRP (XRP)

  • The speaker said XRP had not convincingly reclaimed a key long-term resistance level and had no weekly close above it.
  • He said XRP could struggle unless it demonstrates more strength, while identifying real-world asset (RWA) trading as a potential part of its investment narrative.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s framework favors waiting for a clear resistance reclaim rather than buying solely on the RWA narrative.
  • The transcript gives no price target for XRP.

Cardano (ADA)

  • The speaker described ADA’s chart as weak and said it had not reclaimed the cited May high during the rally.
  • He also pointed to the loss of a breakout area around $2.50 as a sign of weakness.

Takeaways

  • Under the speaker’s price-action approach, ADA had not shown the strength he wanted to see before considering a bullish trade.
  • No price target or new recommendation was given.

Uniswap (UNI)

  • The speaker said UNI’s outlook was tied in part to Ethereum’s condition: if ETH continues to weaken, he would not expect the Ethereum ecosystem to remain strong.
  • He cited $5.80 as a level UNI would preferably hold, $4.70 as a more important downside line, and $6.40 as a possible retest level in a bullish scenario.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests watching UNI’s support levels alongside ETH’s price action.
  • A break below $4.70 would make the speaker substantially more cautious; a move toward $6.40 was discussed only as a possible bullish scenario.

Bittensor (TAO)

  • The speaker said TAO’s chart looked weak and that he would not want to be heavily long while market conditions remained poor.
  • He identified roughly $230 as a level where buyers might appear, while also noting the possibility of a decline toward prior lows.

Takeaways

  • The speaker favored caution rather than trying to call a bottom in TAO during the sell-off.
  • The cited levels are possible areas of interest, not confirmed support.

Render (RENDER)

  • The speaker described Render’s chart as weak, noting that it had not reclaimed the cited May high during the rally and appeared vulnerable to returning to its prior range.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s technical read was bearish-to-cautious; it did not identify a confirmed bottom or a specific buy level.

Pepe (PEPE)

  • The speaker said PEPE appeared to have formed a durable bottom, but added that this view could change if Bitcoin made new lows.
  • He described his approach to meme coins as different from his approach to long-term holdings: he does not want to hold a speculative token through a prolonged decline simply because he is bullish on crypto overall.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s constructive view was conditional on Bitcoin stabilizing.
  • Treat PEPE as a speculative, shorter-term holding in the framework discussed, not as equivalent to a long-term core asset.

Arbitrum (ARB), Aave (AAVE), Jupiter (JUP) and Uniswap (UNI)

  • The speaker used past rallies in these tokens to illustrate a trading approach: wait for a reclaim of a key prior high, then manage the position using clear invalidation levels.
  • He cited historical moves after such reclaims, including roughly 70% for ARB, nearly 2x for AAVE, about 40% for JUP, and about 148% for UNI. These were examples of past price action, not forecasts for future returns.
  • He emphasized that the same approach calls for exiting or reassessing when a reclaimed level is lost.

Takeaways

  • The general lesson was to seek confirmation from price action and define where a trade thesis is invalidated.
  • The historical gains described do not establish that these tokens currently have the same setup.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The speaker called PUMP’s chart unusually strong but noted that it had given up or was testing the $0.055 area.

Takeaways

  • The speaker viewed the chart favorably but treated the cited level as important to monitor.
  • The transcript does not confirm whether support at $0.055 would hold.

Quant (QNT)

  • The speaker said QNT’s chart looked weak and identified a possible short setup if Bitcoin resumed falling.
  • He highlighted $194 as an important level; losing it would, in his view, make the chart look substantially worse.

Takeaways

  • The short idea was conditional on continued weakness and a possible Bitcoin rollover.
  • The speaker did not describe a confirmed short entry or provide a final target.

Orca (ORCA)

  • The speaker said ORCA’s chart had lost a key level after a prior rally.
  • He said he would want to see price back above roughly $2.42 before viewing a long position more favorably.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s stated preference was to wait for a reclaim of the cited level rather than assume the prior rally would resume.

Hedera (HBAR)

  • A viewer described HBAR as being at support; the speaker said he did not see the same support on the chart and pointed to roughly $0.08–$0.084 as a more meaningful area to watch.

Takeaways

  • This was a cautious response to a viewer’s suggested setup, not a bullish call by the speaker.
  • The cited range was discussed as a possible support area, not as confirmed support.

Super Inu

  • The speaker said he likes the project partly because of its name and discussed its association with “superintelligence,” but also characterized it as a highly speculative, meme-like token.
  • He questioned whether it could rise substantially without growth in the broader project or market context.

Takeaways

  • The discussion did not establish an investment case beyond speculation and the theme attached to the token.
  • Do not interpret the speaker’s joking enthusiasm as a substantive recommendation.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The speaker said NVIDIA had taken a significant hit and discussed the possibility that its weekly chart was showing a bearish swing-failure pattern.
  • He disclosed holding a short position in NVIDIA, linking it to concerns about AI-sector spending and OpenAI’s reported revenue shortfall.
  • He later said he closed part of the position after a favorable move.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s short thesis was tied to both weakening price action and concern about AI-sector financing—not simply to NVIDIA’s company-specific fundamentals.
  • He did not give a price target, and the chart pattern he discussed was still developing.

SOXL

  • The speaker disclosed a short position in SOXL, a leveraged semiconductor ETF, citing weakness in the broader AI and technology-related trade.

Takeaways

  • The position reflects the speaker’s short-term bearish view on the sector. Because SOXL is leveraged, its price can move sharply; the transcript provides no target or holding period.

Oracle (ORCL)

  • The speaker pointed to a sharp red candle in Oracle as part of broader weakness across technology and AI-related names.
  • He did not disclose an Oracle position or give a specific recommendation.

Takeaways

  • Oracle was cited as evidence of market weakness, not as a standalone investment thesis.

AI Sector, OpenAI and Anthropic

  • The speaker cited a reported $20 billion revenue shortfall at OpenAI as a major concern, arguing that weaker revenue could limit the company’s ability to finance continued AI infrastructure expansion.
  • He said companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are central to the broader AI buildout and that their spending affects the wider ecosystem.
  • He also noted that negative AI-sector news was occurring alongside weakness in Bitcoin and other markets.

Takeaways

  • The discussion raises a risk to AI-related investments: if major AI companies fail to generate expected revenue, continued infrastructure spending could be harder to sustain.
  • The transcript does not provide a specific valuation, price target, or investment recommendation for OpenAI or Anthropic.

U.S. Treasury Yields

  • The speaker said the 10-year Treasury yield was rising and described it as a risk factor for financial markets.
  • He discussed historically significant yield levels but did not give a precise forecast for rates.
  • A viewer suggested shorting AI-related assets if the 10-year yield reached 6%; this was a viewer comment, not a recommendation made by the speaker.

Takeaways

  • Rising yields were presented as a potential pressure on risk assets, including technology and crypto.
  • The 6% level should be understood as an audience suggestion, not a target or forecast endorsed by the speaker.

Long-Term Market Themes: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Gold and Stocks

  • The speaker described Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Hyperliquid as examples of assets he considers more durable over the long term, while contrasting them with shorter-term speculative tokens.
  • He also mentioned the S&P 500, Apple, Microsoft and gold as examples of assets that may have longer-term staying power. Silver was recommended by a viewer, not by the speaker.
  • His broader strategy was to separate long-term holdings from a more actively managed trading portfolio, using shorter-term trades to manage risk and potentially accumulate long-term assets.

Takeaways

  • The central portfolio idea was to distinguish between long-term holdings and speculative or tactical positions rather than treating every crypto asset as a permanent holding.
  • The transcript does not provide allocation guidance or endorse any specific long-term portfolio weights.
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