End of War Trades
End of War Trades
46 days agoDumb Money LiveDumb Money
Podcast1 hr 3 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Use the Copper Miners ETF (COPX) as a high-volatility "fast trade" to profit from Middle East news cycles, as it typically surges on peace rumors and drops on war escalations. For long-term growth, accumulate Amazon (AMZN) to capitalize on its Trainium AI chip demand and an expected multi-month re-pricing once oil prices stabilize. Investors seeking a high-leverage recovery play should monitor Robinhood (HOOD), which is positioned to outperform as retail sentiment improves and crypto markets "thaw." Tactical traders can capture a 5-10% bounce on regional stability news by using the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) or the UAE ETF (UAE). For indirect exposure to the AI startup Anthropic, consider SK Telecom (SKM) as a liquid proxy, or look to Hims & Hers (HIMS) to play the long-term "peptide super cycle" in mass-market healthcare.

Detailed Analysis

Copper Miners ETF (COPX)

The hosts identify COPX as the primary "fast trade" vehicle for volatility related to Middle East tensions and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Direct Correlation: Copper prices have shown a clean, inverse correlation with war escalations; it "gets destroyed" when news is bad and pops on peace rumors.
  • Liquidity: Being an ETF, it offers high liquidity and lower concentration risk compared to individual mining stocks.
  • Volatility: It saw a 5% pre-market jump on news of delayed deadlines, making it a go-to for news-cycle traders.

Takeaways

  • Short-term Play: Use COPX to trade the immediate news cycle regarding Iran and global trade routes.
  • Sentiment Indicator: Watch copper as a proxy for global economic optimism versus war-time fear.

Amazon (AMZN)

Despite short-term headwinds from high oil prices and logistics costs, the hosts maintain "high conviction" in AMZN as a long-term winner.

  • AI Integration: The massive investment in OpenAI and Anthropic ensures Amazon’s Trainium chips will have guaranteed demand.
  • Risk Mitigation: The hosts believe side letters in these AI deals protect Amazon’s retail business from being disrupted by AI search queries.
  • The "Lag" Trade: Amazon hasn't popped as much as "war-sensitive" stocks yet. The thesis is that once the war ends and oil stabilizes, AMZN will see a multi-month re-pricing.

Takeaways

  • Accumulation Strategy: Consider adding to positions if a clear resolution to Middle East hostilities emerges.
  • Monitor Oil: A spike to $100-$200/barrel is the primary "destructive path" for Amazon’s earnings due to shipping costs.

Robinhood (HOOD)

The hosts view HOOD as a high-leverage play on market stabilization and retail investor sentiment.

  • Market Recovery Play: As account sizes grow with a rising market, Robinhood's revenue increases.
  • Crypto Correlation: While currently priced for a "crypto winter," any "thaw" in Bitcoin or Ethereum would act as a massive catalyst.
  • Contrarian Opportunity: It is currently down significantly from highs and isn't being discussed by the general public, which the hosts view as a signal to look closer.

Takeaways

  • Wait for Confirmation: Consider "tripling down" or adding leverage only once there is 95% certainty that the Iran situation is resolved and the market is drifting upward.

U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) & UAE ETF (UAE)

These are identified as secondary "fast trades" for the end-of-war scenario.

  • JETS: A cleaner way to trade the airline recovery without the "concentration risk" of a single carrier (like American Airlines or Air Canada).
  • UAE: Highly correlated to Middle East stability. If the region stabilizes, capital flows back into these markets.

Takeaways

  • Strictly Short-term: These are not "buy and hold" investments; they are tactical trades to capture a 5-10% bounce on peace news.

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

The discussion centered on the "Peptide Super Cycle" and the mainstreaming of anti-aging treatments.

  • The "McDonald's of Peptides": HIMS is positioned to bring expensive "billionaire" treatments (like GLP-1s and other peptides) to the mass market.
  • Supplement Evolution: Peptides are viewed as "supplements that actually work," creating a potential decade-long growth cycle.
  • Risk Factor: High reliance on GLP-1 supply, which is currently controlled by a duopoly (Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk).

Takeaways

  • Sector Watch: Even if not investing in HIMS, watch the peptide sector as a major long-term health/wellness trend.

Other Notable Mentions

Transalta Corp (TAC)

  • Thesis: Data centers need energy. As the Middle East becomes "un-investable" for high-cap data centers due to war risk, Canada (and TAC) becomes a safer, energy-rich alternative.

SK Telecom (SKM)

  • The Anthropic Play: SKM invested $100M in Anthropic at a $5B valuation. The hosts use this as a liquid, fee-free way to gain exposure to Anthropic before its eventual IPO.

Retail/Logistics Stocks

  • Wayfair (W), Aritzia (ATZ), Gap (GPS): These stocks are highly sensitive to oil/shipping prices. If the war ends and shipping costs drop, these "heavy goods" retailers are expected to outperform.

AI Infrastructure

  • Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE): Mentioned as upcoming "deep dive" stocks that are volatile but essential to the AI hardware cycle.
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Episode Description
Today on Dumb Money, preparing our trades for when the war ends.
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Dumb Money Live

By Dumb Money

Dave Hanson, Chris Camillo and Jordan Mclain are Dumb Money. These longtime friends sold their tech startup, quit their day jobs, and decided to become full-time investors.