Consider buying Monad (MON) if its price drops to the ICO level of $0.025, as the limited initial supply could lead to a quick rebound after early sellers are absorbed. For Hyperliquid (HYPE), a potential entry strategy is to bid around $25 or dollar-cost average in the $25-$27 range leading up to the November 29th token unlock. Traders could watch Zcash (ZEC), as buying when its RSI indicator hits 30 has historically been a profitable strategy. For the broader market, watch if Bitcoin (BTC) can hold support in the $85,000 - $86,000 range to rebuild confidence. A drop below $80,000 for Bitcoin is a major bearish signal that could indicate a more significant market downturn.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The market saw a significant dip on Friday, with Bitcoin dropping to the $81,000 - $82,000 range, but it has since rebounded to nearly $87,000.
• The hosts noted that this rebound is a much-needed relief, but it's uncertain if it will be sustained.
• A bullish sign was that Bitcoin ETFs saw $240 million in net inflows on Friday, indicating that some investors were "buying the dip."
• Bitcoin Dominance has remained surprisingly stable during the sell-off, which is unusual for this type of market action.
• Potential negative factors discussed include concerns around MicroStrategy and the general unwinding of institutional ("TradFi") trades in crypto.
• The hosts were critical of the VanEck CEO promoting Zcash as a quantum-resistant alternative to Bitcoin, calling the narrative "reckless" and agreeing that Bitcoin losing its number one spot would be detrimental to the entire crypto industry.

Takeaways

• Key Price Levels: The hosts identified several important price levels to watch for Bitcoin.
  • A drop below $80,000 is seen as a major bearish signal that could lead to a prolonged downturn ("go to the gulag").
  • Holding support around $85,000 - $86,000 would help rebuild market confidence.
  • Key resistance levels to watch on the upside are $88,000 and $93,000.
• Market Sentiment: The current bounce is a positive sign, but caution is advised. The market needs to see if these levels can hold to confirm a local bottom and potentially set up for a "Santa rally" in December.

Monad (MON)

• The Monad mainnet and token airdrop went live. The token began trading around its ICO price of $0.025 - $0.026, which is down from pre-market prices that were in the $0.035 - $0.04 range.
• The current valuation is approximately $2.6 billion FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation).
• The hosts discussed the two main groups of token holders on day one:
  • Airdrop recipients: Received 3.3% of the total supply. Many are expected to sell as it's "free money," creating initial sell pressure.
  • Public Sale participants: Bought 7.5% of the supply via a Coinbase token sale. These investors are incentivized not to sell their tokens, as flipping can jeopardize their ability to participate in future Coinbase sales.
• The long-term bull case for Monad is its strong VC backing, a large ecosystem fund (38% of the supply) to attract developers, and its positioning as a new, fast blockchain.

Takeaways

• Short-Term Trade Idea (Bullish): One host presented a bullish short-term thesis based on the tokenomics. With only the 3.3% airdrop allocation likely to be sold, the available supply (float) is very low.
  • This could create a scenario where initial sell pressure is absorbed quickly, leading to a price rebound.
  • The price falling to or below the $0.025 ICO price presents an opportunity for those who missed the presale to buy in at the same level as early investors.
  • The hosts noted that historically, it's often not the best move to sell airdrops immediately, as they tend to bottom after a few hours and then grind higher.
• Long-Term Investment: For long-term believers in the project, the current price near the ICO level could be an attractive entry point. However, the hosts emphasize that the long-term success depends on the ecosystem that gets built on Monad, which will take time to develop.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• The HYPE token has experienced a significant sell-off, dropping 30% since Friday and now trading around $27, down from the $38-$40 range.
• The main driver of the sell-off is the upcoming first token unlock scheduled for November 29th.
• Unlock Details: This unlock is for core contributors and represents 2.66% of the circulating supply ($308 million worth). The discussion suggests this may become a recurring monthly unlock.
• Despite the sell-off, the project has a strong positive factor: the protocol's buybacks are absorbing $5 million per day, which could help offset some of the selling pressure from the unlock.

Takeaways

• Potential Entry Strategy: The hosts discussed a cautious buying strategy.
  • One host mentioned a personal target to bid on HYPE at $25.
  • The general sentiment is that buying right before a major unlock is risky ("you don't want to buy into an unlock").
  • A suggested strategy is to wait until closer to the unlock date (e.g., November 28th) to assess the price action before considering a position. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in the $25-$27 range was mentioned as a possibility for those bullish on the project.

Zcash (ZEK/ZEC)

• Zcash saw a strong bounce over the weekend, recovering from a low of $4.00 to as high as $6.50 before settling around $5.60.
• A major topic was the VanEck CEO promoting Zcash on CNBC as a privacy-focused and quantum-resistant alternative to Bitcoin.
• The hosts expressed skepticism about this narrative push, viewing it as a potentially harmful attempt to undermine Bitcoin's dominance for the benefit of another token.

Takeaways

• Trading Vehicle: While the hosts are wary of the long-term narrative being pushed, they acknowledge that Zcash is a fun coin to trade.
• One host specifically mentioned that buying Zcash when its RSI (Relative Strength Index) hits 30 on the charts has been a profitable trading strategy. This is a technical indicator suggesting an asset is oversold.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• Concerns about MicroStrategy were mentioned as a potential headwind for Bitcoin.
• The specific news is that MSTR may be delisted from an MSCI index, which would force any funds that track that index to sell their shares.

Takeaways

• Limited Impact: The hosts believe this is not a major concern. The stock is already down 65% from its recent highs, so they question how much more negative impact this news could have. They view it as a minor factor in the broader market.

Tensor (TNSR)

• Coinbase announced the acquisition of Vector, the team behind the Tensor NFT marketplace.
• Crucially, the announcement clarified that the TNSR token is not part of the acquisition. The token will now only be tied to the Tensor NFT marketplace, which is run by an independent foundation.
• The hosts described this as a "bearish announcement for the token," as its value is now tied to a marketplace with a very small market share (1.5%).
• There was significant discussion about apparent insider trading, as the token pumped aggressively right before the announcement.

Takeaways

• Bearish Outlook: The fundamental value proposition for the TNSR token appears to be severely diminished. The hosts believe the token is overvalued at a $150 million FDV given the low performance of the underlying NFT marketplace it represents.
• High Risk: While the fundamental case is weak, traders should be cautious about shorting it due to the risk of volatile "short squeezes."

Meme Coins (PEPE, WIF, FAR)

• The hosts used the high valuations of major meme coins as a market indicator.
• Farcana (FAR): The token bounced 50% off its lows after news that a major holder, Wintermute, had allegedly sold their entire position. It still has a market cap of $275 million.
• Pepe (PEPE): Still valued at $1.7 billion.
• Dogwifhat (WIF): Still valued at $350 million.

Takeaways

• Market Barometer: The continued high valuations of these meme coins suggest the market has not entered a full-blown, multi-year bear market yet.
  • Bear Case: If a true bear market begins, these tokens could fall another 50-80%.
  • Bull Case: If the market rallies into the end of the year (a "Santa rally"), these high-beta meme coins could see significant percentage gains.