CRYPTO BULL MARKET Just Got Triggered! (The Business Cycle Says This Is Only The Start)
CRYPTO BULL MARKET Just Got Triggered! (The Business Cycle Says This Is Only The Start)
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near key resistance between $87,000 and $88,000, where a sustained breakout opens the path toward the milestone $100,000 price target.

Sui (SUI) is in the early stages of a macro expansion, offering an attractive entry point on pullbacks toward $0.84 with upside targets at $1.14 and $1.86.

Cardano (ADA) presents a low-risk accumulation trade targeting $0.40 to $0.48 upon breaking above $0.30, while its privacy-focused ecosystem token Midnight (NIGHT) offers high upside velocity on a confirmed move over $0.03.

High-conviction growth plays include Injective (INJ), which carries long-term technical price targets between $76.00 and $100.00, and Internet Computer (ICP), which holds substantial rebound potential toward $19.00 from its current $2.95 base.

Investors holding leading assets such as Uniswap (UNI) and Near Protocol (NEAR) should implement tiered profit-taking strategies to lock in gains after their rapid 300% to 400% advances.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin is approaching its monthly 20-month moving average between $87,000 and $88,000, with short-term price action testing the $86,000 mark.
  • The price broke above the 50-week moving average, an indicator that has historically signaled the start of major bull market expansions across previous cycles.
  • Large short liquidations have fueled the upside momentum, driving the price from $58,000 in June to $71,000 in August, and toward mid-$80,000s.
  • Institutional adoption, nation-state accumulation game theory, and regulatory clarity from the SEC and CFTC are driving the macro expansion phase.
  • Macro risk factors mentioned include potential oil supply shocks or broader geopolitical panic that could cause a sharp pullback toward $50,000.

Takeaways

  • Watch for resistance and possible short-to-mid-term consolidation near $87,000 - $88,000.
  • A sustained move above the 20-month moving average could open the path toward $100,000.

Sui (SUI)

  • The asset broke above both its 200-day moving average near $0.89 - $0.90 and its 20-week moving average, signaling a macro trend reversal.
  • The proprietary risk model places SUI at a low risk score of 26, with historical models showing higher prices 73% of the time after three months and 100% after one year.
  • Immediate resistance sits at the 50-week moving average around $1.14, while the monthly 20-month moving average sits at $1.86.
  • A short-term pullback to retest the 200-day moving average around $0.84 remains possible before continuation.

Takeaways

  • Avoid chasing rapid price spikes; prepare for potential consolidations between $0.84 and $1.14.
  • Low risk metrics suggest this price action is in the early stages of a macro expansion.

Cardano (ADA)

  • ADA remains in an accumulation range with a very low risk score of 20, showing a structural pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
  • The 50-week moving average is situated near $0.30, representing a key baseline.
  • An initial breakout target is identified around the $0.40 level (a potential 60% move from recent range levels), with major macro resistance at the 200-week moving average around $0.48.
  • Speculation around extreme price targets like $200 was dismissed as unrealistic given the required market capitalization.

Takeaways

  • Cardano remains in low-risk territory; look for a decisive move above $0.30 to target $0.40 and $0.48.

Midnight (NIGHT)

  • NIGHT serves as an asymmetric, privacy-focused play associated with the Cardano ecosystem and Input Output Global (IOG).
  • The token suffered an earlier sell-off following a third-party bridge exploit (the network itself was not hacked), creating a discounted valuation range.
  • The key technical level to watch is the 200-day moving average and horizontal resistance at $0.03 (3 cents).

Takeaways

  • A confirmed breakout above $0.03 could trigger substantial upward velocity and outperformance relative to ADA.

Uniswap (UNI)

  • UNI has gained nearly 300% from its June lows, breaking out of a long-term bottom accumulation range.
  • The token exhibits a strong correlation with the macro business cycle expansion and serves as a leading momentum indicator for decentralized finance (DeFi) and altcoins.

Takeaways

  • Investors who accumulated at range lows should begin planning gradual, tiered profit-taking strategies rather than attempting to time the exact top.

Avalanche (AVAX)

  • AVAX recently broke out of its multi-month consolidation base, supported by news around institutional testing and privacy integrations with COTI.
  • The move serves as an example of rapid sector rotation where lagging assets suddenly experience fast upward expansions.

Takeaways

  • Avoid selling lagging assets to chase AVAX after a large impulse move; wait for pullbacks or let existing positions ride.

Internet Computer (ICP)

  • ICP trades near $2.95 with a risk score of 41, having spent significant time in low-risk accumulation zones in the 30s.
  • During the early 2024 move, the asset reached $19.00 at a risk score of 68; a return to those prior highs would represent an approximate 500% gain.
  • The token launched at the peak of the 2021 business cycle and has not yet experienced a sustained macroeconomic expansion phase.

Takeaways

  • Potential upside target rests near $19.00, but investors must monitor tokenomics and circulating supply dilution over time.

Kaspa (KAS)

  • KAS is up over 60% from August lows (trading above $0.04 compared to sub-$0.03 lows), while remaining within its post-quantitative tightening base.
  • The asset carries a low risk score of 30, with historical cycle models showing higher prices 87% of the time after one year at this level.
  • Strong community engagement and network development support a favorable long-term outlook once it breaks its broader consolidation range.

Takeaways

  • The token offers a favorable risk-to-reward profile while consolidating in its macro base; trim profits incrementally if short-term targets are met.

Dog•Go•To•The•Moon (DOG)

  • DOG is a decentralized, fair-drop meme asset built directly on Bitcoin's Runes protocol, currently valued around a $100 million market cap.
  • The price has risen 118% to 200% from recent lows after holding support at the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone.
  • A 10% to 20% upward test into the next Fibonacci resistance box is needed to confirm a continuation of the bullish trend; failure could lead to a retest below the $100M valuation level.

Takeaways

  • Represents a high-risk, high-upside proxy on Bitcoin ecosystem activity; watch the upcoming 10–20% resistance test for confirmation of trend continuation.

Injective (INJ)

  • INJ shows strong macro monthly market structure after previously breaking all-time highs in early 2024.
  • Fibonacci extension levels project a technical target of $76.00 (a 700%–800% gain from current levels), with psychological upside extending toward $100.00 (a 10x move).
  • Catalysts include potential exchange-traded fund (ETF) narratives and continued ecosystem growth.

Takeaways

  • Maintain a plan to scale out into strength if price approaches the $76.00 - $100.00 target zone, while preparing for 30% to 40% dips along the way.

Pyth Network (PYTH)

  • PYTH was highlighted as an early-stage institutional oracle and market data provider designed to bring traditional financial data and equities on-chain.
  • The asset trades around $0.59 - $0.60, offering early exposure compared to mature oracle networks like Chainlink.

Takeaways

  • Functions as an infrastructure play on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and institutional adoption.

Ondo Finance (ONDO)

  • ONDO is up roughly 36% from recent lows but remains range-bound within its accumulation base.
  • While the Real World Asset (RWA) narrative is strong, social sentiment has displayed skepticism regarding token utility.

Takeaways

  • Keep positions sized appropriately until the token clearly breaks out of its current accumulation range.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

  • NEAR has advanced nearly 400% from bottom accumulation levels (moving from $0.96 up to around $4.00), shifting its risk score from a low of 9 to 47.
  • Intermediate technical resistance sits between $7.00 and $8.00, with all-time high macro targets near $19.00 - $20.00.

Takeaways

  • For investors who bought near $1.00, the $4.00 level offers an opportunity to de-risk or take partial profits, while $7.00 - $8.00 represents the next major resistance band.

VeChain (VET)

  • VET is up over 100% from its August lows, moving from an extreme low risk score of 11 to 27.
  • The price is forming a potential bottoming pattern below $0.01, with historical cycle peaks reaching $0.26 (at a maximum risk score of 99).
  • Short-term resistance could cause a standard pullback before a larger breakout occurs.

Takeaways

  • Assess token dilution and circulating supply changes before assuming a direct return to previous cycle price peaks of $0.26; current levels remain in early-stage expansion territory.

COTI (COTI)

  • COTI holds a low risk score of 31, which historically indicates an 80% probability of higher prices after one year.
  • Recent fundamental developments include privacy integrations and partnerships within the Avalanche ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • A low-risk score and ongoing privacy infrastructure buildout position COTI favorably as broader business cycle liquidity expands.
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Video Description
Get the CCV Risk Models: https://app.cryptocapitalventure.ai/risk-metric LIVE: The crypto bull market just got triggered and the business cycle says this is only the start. Bitcoin price ripped to $85,000 today as a short squeeze wiped out $648 million in bearish bets, and Bitcoin (BTC) just closed above its 50-week average for the first time in 45 weeks. In this livestream I'm breaking down what's happening in crypto today, why I think the business cycle is the real driver behind this move, and what it means for Bitcoin and altcoins from here. In today's crypto news: total crypto market cap is up around 5% to $2.9 trillion, oil is falling as Middle East tensions ease, open interest is climbing to $156 billion and the Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 76. Ethereum (ETH), XRP and Solana (SOL) are all up big, with NEAR up around 20% and Cardano (ADA), SUI, AVAX, HBAR and TAO all up double digits. I'll go through the Bitcoin news, the altcoin charts, where the business cycle sits right now, and what I'm watching into the PCE inflation report on September 26. Bring your questions to the live chat. 0:00 Intro, BTC breakout and market pump 13:40 Chat calls out coins to cover 22:30 Cardano and Charles Hoskinson debate 28:30 Bitcoin hits 86K 36:50 ICP 45:30 Charting platform question 47:30 SEI 52:40 DOG 59:15 Why caution still matters 1:01:30 INJ 1:07:00 Best mid-tier plays under 100M 1:08:15 ONDO 1:09:30 Down 20% on your portfolio, now what 1:17:00 CCV risk models 1:20:10 NEAR narratives 1:22:00 DOG and mid-caps 1:28:20 Bull market signals 1:31:30 More livestreams? 1:34:30 COTI 1:36:30 BTC breaks the 50-week 1:40:00 Closing thoughts
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Crypto Capital Venture

Crypto Capital Venture

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