• Treat Bitcoin (BTC) $73,000—its approximate 200-day moving average—as a support level to monitor, not a guaranteed floor; wait for confirmation before relying on a rebound.
• A recovery toward $90,000 by late November or early December is possible only if BTC’s speculative inverse head-and-shoulders pattern gains confirmation; expect added volatility around the FOMC.
• For Ethereum (ETH), watch whether support holds; if the pattern fails, potential downside levels are $1,800–$2,000, with $1,500 a more severe scenario.
• Monitor the total crypto market’s monthly close against its 20-month moving average just below $3 trillion for a broader trend signal.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-day moving average. The 200-day moving average, around $73,000, remains a potential support level; the speaker says it is in play but not guaranteed to be reached.
• The speaker compares the current momentum pattern with March 2023, when Bitcoin’s RSI failed at a trend line and price fell toward the 200-day moving average before later moving higher. This is presented as a possible analogy, not a prediction.
• A bullish short-term scenario remains possible: Bitcoin could form a shallower right shoulder and test the neckline around $90,000 by late November or early December. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is still speculative and unconfirmed.
• The overall tone is cautious about near-term downside while leaving room for a bullish recovery scenario.

Takeaways

• Treat $73,000 as a level to monitor, not a guaranteed floor. The speaker emphasizes preparing for both downside and upside rather than assuming the pattern will resolve bullishly.
• Look for confirmation that support is holding before relying on the right-shoulder scenario. The speaker also flags a potentially volatile week around the FOMC.

Ethereum (ETH)

• The speaker describes Ethereum’s chart as similar to Bitcoin’s, with a possible but unconfirmed inverse head-and-shoulders setup.
• If that setup fails, Ethereum could fall below its 200-day moving average and test the $1,800–$2,000 Fibonacci support area.
• In a more severe failure scenario, the speaker identifies a retest near $1,500, corresponding to the prior speculative “head” of the pattern.
• These levels are discussed as potential downside scenarios, not as the speaker’s base case or a firm forecast.

Takeaways

• The key distinction is whether support holds and a right shoulder forms, or whether the structure fails and Ethereum moves toward lower support levels.
• The speaker recommends being prepared for either outcome and waiting for confirmation around support rather than treating the speculative pattern as established.

Total Crypto Market

• The total crypto market capitalization is facing resistance at the 20-month moving average, which the speaker describes as a separator between bull and bear cycles. It is just below $3 trillion.
• The monthly candle was red at the time of recording, with about five days left before it closed. The speaker notes that the monthly close could affect how the level is interpreted.

Takeaways

• Watch the monthly close relative to the 20-month moving average for a broader signal about market conditions; the transcript does not establish a definitive bull- or bear-market outcome.
• Short-term volatility and the possibility of failed chart patterns make scenario planning and risk management central themes of the discussion.