This crypto cycle's winners are projects with strong revenue and aggressive token buyback programs. Solana (SOL) is a top institutional pick, bolstered by a new $1.6 billion treasury created to purchase SOL tokens from the market. Consider WorldCoin (WLD), backed by OpenAI's founder, which is solving for "proof of humanness" and just launched a new treasury to initiate buybacks. Other high-conviction plays executing this strategy include Pump.fun (PUMP) and Ethena (ENA), which use nearly 100% of their revenue to reduce their token supply. For a longer-term position, DeBridge (DBR) is highlighted as a project with a strong buyback rate whose price may soon catch up to its fundamentals.

The "Cycle Winner" Formula

The speaker presents a core investment thesis for identifying the winning altcoins of the current crypto cycle. This cycle is different from previous ones because it is driven by Wall Street and institutional flows, which prioritize specific, model-friendly fundamentals.

• The formula for a "cycle winner" has two main components:

  1. Strong Revenue Generation: The project must be generating significant, verifiable revenue. This is the first box Wall Street needs to tick.
  2. Token Supply Reduction: This is the crucial second part. The project must have a clear mechanism for taking its own tokens out of circulation to counteract inflation from token unlocks. This can be achieved in two primary ways:
     • Aggressive Buybacks: Using a large portion of the protocol's revenue to buy back its own tokens from the open market. A key metric mentioned is Buybacks as a percentage of Fully Diluted Value (FDV).
     • Treasury Vehicles: Raising external capital (cash and stablecoins) through private placements or other means with the specific goal of purchasing the project's tokens.

• The speaker emphasizes a "winner-take-all" dynamic in this cycle, advising investors to double down on the established winners rather than betting on smaller, contrarian competitors.

Solana (SOL)

• Mentioned as one of the clear "cycle winners" that the market has already selected.
• Wall Street is reportedly buying a "shit ton" of Solana.
• A major announcement was the launch of a Solana treasury company, bringing in $1.6 billion of investment from firms like Jump, Multicoin, and Galaxy.
• This investment is 100% cash and stablecoins, not locked SOL tokens, which is seen as very positive.
• The SOL/ETH chart showed significant relative strength following the treasury announcement, indicating positive market reaction.

Takeaways

• Bullish Sentiment: The speaker is very bullish on Solana due to strong institutional interest and the new treasury vehicle, which fits the "cycle winner" formula perfectly.
• The establishment of a well-funded treasury is a major catalyst, designed to support the token's value by creating buying pressure.

WorldCoin (WLD)

• The speaker has had a major change of heart on WorldCoin, going from a skeptic to a "mega, mega, mega fan" and purchasing a significant position.
• Thesis: The rise of sophisticated AI makes "proof of humanness" an increasingly critical technology. WorldCoin is positioned to solve this problem.
• Key Backing: The project is backed by Sam Altman, the creator of ChatGPT. The speaker believes Altman launched WorldCoin with the foresight that AI would create the very problem that WLD aims to solve.
• Catalyst: A new treasury vehicle was announced, consisting of a $250 million private placement and an additional $20 million strategic investment from Bitmain to initiate WorldCoin's treasury strategy.
• The speaker set up a leveraged grid trading bot for WLD with the following parameters:
  • Leverage: 5x
  • Price Range: $1 to $3
  • Investment: $3,000 (with $1,000 extra margin)

Takeaways

• Strong Bullish Sentiment: The speaker believes you "cannot take a bet against WorldCoin" due to its powerful narrative, backing by Sam Altman, and the new treasury vehicle.
• The investment thesis is both narrative-driven (the importance of proof of humanness) and fundamental (the new treasury buying pressure).

Hyperliquid (No Ticker - Pre-Market/Points)

• Presented as a prime example of the "cycle winner" formula in action.
• The project is a "master" at two things:
  1. Generating Revenue: As a decentralized derivatives platform, it creates "amazing" revenue.
  2. Aggressive Buybacks: It uses approximately 97% of its revenue to buy back its own token.
• At its current trajectory, it could buy back its entire token supply in about eight years.
• The project is constantly looking for new ways to generate revenue specifically for buybacks, such as endorsing a stablecoin (USDH) where profits will be used to buy more Hyperliquid tokens.

Takeaways

• Extremely Bullish Sentiment: The speaker contrasts Hyperliquid's "up-only" chart with Uniswap's lackluster performance, attributing the difference directly to Hyperliquid's aggressive buyback strategy.
• This is a model protocol to watch for investors who believe in the "revenue + buyback" thesis.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

• Identified as another key "cycle winner."
• The token's performance took off after it began implementing buybacks using almost 100% of its revenue.
• Key Stats Mentioned:
  • Has bought back 5.8% of the total circulating supply.
  • Average daily buyback is $1.8 million.
  • In the last month, it bought back 1% of its total Fully Diluted Value (FDV).
  • At this rate, it could buy back 40% of its current supply in a single year.

Takeaways

• Strong Bullish Sentiment: The speaker believes the chart "will continue to go up only" because of its extremely aggressive and effective buyback program.
• The token is a clear example of how implementing a strong buyback mechanism can directly and positively impact price performance.

Other Altcoin Mentions

• Ethena (ENA):

  • Mentioned as a "cycle winner" that the show has been calling for a long time.
  • It has a "very, very, very strong plan" using a treasury company to buy back its tokens, coupled with amazing revenue and a great narrative.
  • Recently raised $530 million.

• Aerodrome (AERO):

  • Highlighted for its strong buyback program, having bought back almost 1% of its tokens in the last month.
  • Described as having a "unique" and "aggressive" buyback model.

• Jupiter (JUP):

  • Mentioned as a "cycle winner" and a "great one when it comes to buybacks."

• DeBridge (DBR):

  • Noted for its high buyback rate relative to its FDV (bought back nearly half a percent of its FDV in the last month).
  • The speaker is puzzled why the price hasn't moved yet but believes it will "eventually catch up."
  • Insight: Considered a "very, very good one to hold" for investors with a long-term view.

• Sky (SKY):

  • The rebranded Aave token.
  • Mentioned as having "insanely, insanely high" buybacks and being one of the best performers, though its chart history is obscured by the rebrand.

• Uniswap (UNI):

  • Used as a negative example. Despite having large revenues, its chart performance is "not great" because it lacks an aggressive buyback mechanism to reduce token supply, unlike Hyperliquid.