A high-risk, short-term trade opportunity exists in Bitcoin (BTC) for a bounce towards $100,850, with a potential entry zone near $90,700 and a stop-loss below $88,300. However, the long-term outlook for BTC is bearish, aligning with active short positions on proxies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and precious metals such as Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG). For a bullish opportunity, watch Zcash (ZEC), as a 12-hour close above $740 is seen as a trigger for a significant rally. Another bullish trend is present in Astar (ASTR), where a long position could be considered with a stop-loss at $1.25. Ultimately, any major strength in BTC towards the $100,000 - $110,000 zone may present an opportunity to reduce long-term holdings.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker has a bearish outlook on Bitcoin's high timeframe (monthly chart), describing it as "incredibly bearish."
• A monthly MACD bearish cross is in motion, which historically signals a bear market. To avoid this, BTC would need to close the month above $97,400.
• The speaker believes the bull run may be over, citing that price is trading below key moving averages (like the weekly 50 EMA) and that his personal exit signal was around $108,000.
• Despite the long-term bearish view, a short-term "complacency bounce" or "dead cat bounce" is considered highly probable.
• The price has hit a key support zone around $88,000, which was identified months ago as a potential "buy the dip" area.
• The TD Sequential indicator is showing a "nine buy" signal, which suggests a potential for 1 to 4 days of upward price movement.
• The speaker is looking for the aggregate funding rate to turn negative for a higher-confidence bottom signal, which has not happened yet. This indicates that traders are still piling into long positions.

Takeaways

• Long-Term Investors: Caution is advised. The high-timeframe trend is turning bearish. Any significant bounce, especially into the $100,000 - $110,000 resistance zone, could be an opportunity to de-risk or take profits before a potential move lower.
• Short-Term Traders: A counter-trend long trade opportunity is presented.
  • Potential Entry: Scaling into a long position between current prices and $90,700.
  • Take Profit Target: The primary target for this bounce is $100,850.
  • Stop Loss: A tight stop loss should be placed just below the recent lows, around $88,300.
  • Risk: This is a counter-trend trade, meaning you are trading against the dominant downward trend, which carries higher risk.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The speaker is in a profitable short trade on MicroStrategy, reporting gains of 40-50%.
• The stock experienced a "massive collapse," dropping 10% in a single day.
• This is presented as a swing short trade that the speaker plans to hold for a longer duration.

Takeaways

• The sentiment is bearish. The speaker is actively shorting the stock, viewing it as a good candidate for a swing trade to the downside, likely due to its high correlation with Bitcoin's price movements.

Gold (XAU) & Silver (XAG)

• The speaker is in profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.
• The trend for both precious metals is described as shifting downwards, with patterns of lower lows and lower highs.
• The speaker believes Gold and Silver will likely put in a major top before the end of the year.
• For Silver, a move above the $52 - $53 level would invalidate the bearish trade idea.
• These are considered high-risk swing trades, but the speaker has moved their stop loss to their entry point ("break even") to eliminate the risk of losing money.

Takeaways

• The sentiment is bearish. The speaker is actively shorting Gold and Silver, anticipating a price top and subsequent decline.
• Traders considering a similar short position should be aware of the invalidation level for Silver ($52-$53). The strategy mentioned is to secure a good entry and then manage risk by moving the stop loss to break-even once the trade is in profit.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• NVIDIA recently beat its earnings expectations, which provided some short-term relief to the market.
• A key price level to watch is around $184.
  • If the price stays above $184, it gives hope for bulls.
  • If the price stays below $184, bears are considered to be in control.
• The speaker is not currently taking a new trade on NVIDIA and suggests "leaving it alone for now" to re-evaluate later.

Takeaways

• The sentiment is neutral to cautiously bullish in the short term due to the earnings beat.
• The $184 level is the critical "line in the sand." Investors should watch to see if the stock can hold this level as support for a potential continuation upwards. A break below this level would be a significant bearish signal.

Other Stocks & Crypto

• Coinbase (COIN): Mentioned as "struggling" and heading towards a price of $219. The sentiment is bearish.
• Robinhood (HOOD): The stock was down significantly. It needs to get back above $120 to show signs of strength. The sentiment is bearish as long as it's below that level.
• Ethereum (ETH): The ETH/BTC chart is at a key support level but remains in a downtrend. For ETH/USD, it needs to reclaim $3,175 to look bullish. A major rally is not expected until Q1 of next year.
• Solana (SOL): The next major resistance level to watch is $152.
• Zcash (ZEC): The speaker is bullish on Zcash, noting it looks "very strong." A 12-hour candle close above $740 is seen as a trigger for a significant pump. The speaker believes it could hit a new all-time high by the end of December.
• Astar (ASTR): The trend is bullish, with the price making higher highs and higher lows. A potential long trade could use $1.25 as a stop-loss level.