The USDT Dominance (USDT.D) chart indicates a high probability of a market-wide crypto downturn, so investors should wait for the weekly candle close before making any major decisions. While a short-term Bitcoin (BTC) relief bounce towards $101,000 - $104,000 is possible, it is viewed as a selling or shorting opportunity. Extreme caution is advised for altcoins, with assets like XRP at risk of a significant price drop to $1.35 or lower if it breaks its current support. For those shorting MicroStrategy (MSTR), consider taking profits as the stock approaches a key support level where a bounce is expected. To protect against a potential Bitcoin fork, hold your coins in personal cold storage to ensure you receive assets from both chains.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker is generally bearish in the short to medium term but acknowledges the market is due for a bounce.
• A major, under-discussed reason for the price drop is a potential Bitcoin fork due to a conflict between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots developers. This is creating uncertainty and causing some long-term holders ("OGs") to sell.
• A key bearish indicator is the monthly MACD, which is about to have a bearish cross. Historically, every time this has happened, the bull run was "unequivocally over," and a bear market followed.
• The market sentiment has shifted from "complacency" and "belief" to "anxiety, denial, and anger," suggesting more pain could be ahead before a true bottom is found.
• Funding rates are not yet negative, which indicates that there is still "hope in the market." A stronger buy signal for a bounce would be a price cascade below $80,000 combined with negative weekly funding rates.

Takeaways

• Short-Term Bounce Potential: Any bounce from current levels is likely a "complacency bounce" or a "dead cat bounce." This could be a significant 20-30% move, with a potential target between $101,000 and $104,000, but it would likely be a lower high and an opportunity to sell or short.
• Strategy for the Fork: If the fork happens, holding your Bitcoin in cold storage (like a Ledger hardware wallet) will ensure you receive coins from both resulting chains, similar to the Bitcoin Cash fork in 2017.
• Risk Management Strategy: For those who struggle with market volatility, a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy is recommended. DCA can significantly reduce your average entry price and mitigate emotional decision-making during sharp downturns.
• Key Level to Watch: For a bullish sign, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $86,000 level on lower timeframes. Until then, the trend remains aggressively down.

USDT Dominance (USDT.D)

• This chart is presented as one of the most important indicators to watch. It shows the percentage of the total crypto market cap held in Tether (USDT). When it goes up, money is flowing out of assets like Bitcoin and into stablecoins, which is bearish for the crypto market.
• The chart is in a clear uptrend and is testing a critical weekly resistance level for the fourth time. The speaker notes that the fourth test of a level has a high probability of an explosive breakout.
• The speaker believes the high-probability trade is that USDT.D will break out and continue higher.

Takeaways

• Bearish Scenario (High Probability): If USDT.D confirms a weekly close above the current resistance, the next target is between 7.5% and 8%. This would cause "complete carnage" in the crypto market and could send Bitcoin's price into the "high $60s, low $70s."
• Bullish Scenario (Low Probability): For the crypto market to turn bullish, USDT.D would need to be strongly rejected and close the week below 6.383%. This could signal a market-wide rally.
• Actionable Advice: Wait for the weekly candle close before making any major investment decisions. Do not "step in front of a steam train" by buying crypto while USDT.D looks this strong.

Altcoins (General)

• The speaker expresses an extremely bearish and cautious sentiment towards altcoins, stating it "feels insane to bid altcoins over here right now."
• While there is a theory that a "potential alt season" could occur due to liquidity flowing out of a conflicted Bitcoin, the speaker is highly skeptical.
• Even if Bitcoin Dominance drops, the speaker warns that the outflow of capital would be spread so thinly across thousands of altcoins that it would be like "pissing in the wind" and would not significantly help prices.

Takeaways

• Extreme Caution Advised: Investors should be "super careful" with altcoins. The speaker believes there are very few, if any, altcoins that look good from a technical perspective.
• High Risk, Low Reward: Trying to pick a winning altcoin in this environment is like "trying to really pick a needle in a haystack," and the risk is likely not worth the potential reward. Many altcoins are breaking key support levels and making new lows.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The speaker has been in a successful short trade on MSTR, which is now down over 45% from their entry.
• The stock is approaching a massive support zone ("order block") that previously led to a huge move up. A significant bounce is expected from this area.

Takeaways

• Action for Shorts: If you are shorting MSTR, it is a good time to consider taking some profits off the table. Do not get too greedy, as a bounce is likely imminent.
• Future Opportunity: The plan is to reload the short trade after the expected bounce plays out and shows signs of rejection at a higher level.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Ethereum has dropped perfectly into a key technical support level known as the "golden pocket" (around $2,635).
• Ordinarily, this would be a level to buy, but the selling pressure is very "impulsive" and "emotionally charged," meaning key support levels can easily be overshot.

Takeaways

• Wait for Confirmation: It is better to wait for signs of strength before buying. Avoid trying to "buy the exact bottom."
• Key Level to Reclaim: A potential sign of strength would be for ETH to reclaim the $2,832 level. Until then, the risk of price simply ranging before another drop remains high.

Other Assets Mentioned

• XRP (XRP): Currently at an "extremely critical level." The speaker is not optimistic about a bounce because the level has been tested many times.
  • Takeaway: If XRP breaks and closes below its current support, the next downside targets are $1.35, $1.05, and potentially as low as $0.58.
• Solana (SOL): The main support area to watch is between $100 and $110.
• Cardano (ADA): Viewed as a leading indicator for XRP. It has already broken its key support and is accelerating to the downside, with a target of 32-33 cents.
• Sui (SUI), Sonic, FET, Keita, Mog, Bitensor (TAO), Tensor: All mentioned with a very bearish outlook. They are either breaking down, making new lows, or expected to revisit their lows.
• Gold (XAU) & Silver (XAG): The speaker mentioned being in profitable short trades on both precious metals.