The Alt Season Formula: When To Buy And When To Sell
The Alt Season Formula: When To Buy And When To Sell
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider gradually accumulating Ethereum (ETH) and Chainlink (LINK) if they confirm a move from Phase A into Phase B; no price targets are provided, and ETH’s elevated weekly RSI warrants caution. XRP is another speculative early-phase opportunity, but its recovery is uncertain—research fundamentals and size positions carefully. For broader altcoin exposure, the speaker views TOTAL3 near long-term support as a potential accumulation area, with a possible cycle run into late 2026 or 2027, not a guarantee. Avoid chasing Solana (SOL) while its RSI is elevated, and consider taking profits in altcoins as hype builds rather than waiting for a cycle peak.

Detailed Analysis

Altcoin Market (TOTAL3)

  • TOTAL3 tracks the altcoin market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. The speaker says it is near a long-term support area that has historically offered better entry opportunities.
  • He expects a possible altcoin run extending into late 2026 or 2027, and argues that falling Bitcoin dominance could redirect money into altcoins. This is a cycle-based view, not a guaranteed forecast.
  • His framework divides the cycle into four phases:
    • Phase A: Low interest and accumulation; he sees this as a buying zone.
    • Phase B: Early recovery; he also sees this as a buying zone.
    • Phase C: Broader hype; he suggests taking profits.
    • Phase D: Late-cycle or all-time-high territory; he suggests selling, while noting this phase is not guaranteed to occur.
  • The speaker recommends using the 200-day moving average, trend lines, and the RSI and stochastic RSI to assess trends and potential entry or exit signals. He says high RSI readings can precede larger corrections.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s core strategy is to build positions in earlier phases and take profits as the market becomes more popular, rather than waiting for peak excitement.
  • Treat the late-2026/2027 outlook and technical signals as the speaker’s view, not a certainty. He warns that buying late can lead to large drawdowns in the next bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker describes the typical cycle as Bitcoin rising first, followed by money moving from Bitcoin into altcoins as Bitcoin dominance falls.
  • He says Bitcoin can be considered a longer-term holding, in contrast with many altcoins, which he expects to fall substantially in bear markets.

Takeaways

  • In the speaker’s cycle framework, watch Bitcoin’s strength and changes in its market dominance for clues about whether capital may be rotating toward altcoins.
  • He does not give a Bitcoin price target or a specific buy or sell recommendation.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker says Ethereum has just started leaving Phase A and moving into Phase B, which he identifies as a potential buying area.
  • He also notes that Ethereum’s weekly RSI is high and describes pullbacks as possible opportunities to buy during Phases A or B.

Takeaways

  • Within the speaker’s framework, Ethereum’s phase and RSI readings matter together: he favors earlier-cycle entries and cautions against buying solely because prices are rising.
  • No specific price target is provided.

Chainlink (LINK)

  • The speaker says Chainlink is about to exit Phase A and enter Phase B, suggesting it may be approaching an early-cycle buying area in his framework.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view is that LINK may be moving into a phase he considers more favorable for entries. He does not provide a price target or a more detailed risk assessment.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker maps Solana’s cycle into Phases A through D, with Phase D in all-time-high territory.
  • He says SOL is near the upper edge of a phase area and that its RSI is at the top. Elsewhere, he treats high RSI readings as a potential warning for corrections.

Takeaways

  • The discussion does not make a clear buy call on SOL at its current point in the cycle. The speaker’s own framework suggests weighing the late phase positioning against the elevated RSI.
  • No specific price target is provided.

XRP (XRP)

  • The speaker identifies a smaller accumulation range on XRP’s chart as Phase A and calls it a large opportunity in his framework.
  • He cautions that altcoins that have fallen significantly may not reach Phases C or D. He also says that moves across the phases in this example could be as large as 200%, 400%, or 600%; these are presented as possible moves, not guaranteed returns or price targets.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view is that XRP may offer an early-phase opportunity, but he also emphasizes that substantial prior declines can limit an altcoin’s recovery.
  • He recommends researching an altcoin’s fundamentals and understanding its cycle position before investing.

Filecoin (FIL)

  • The speaker cites Filecoin as an example of an altcoin where he sees money-making potential, but gives no detailed phase designation or specific supporting analysis.

Takeaways

  • The transcript does not provide enough detail to identify a specific entry point or target for FIL. The speaker’s general guidance is to assess phase, trend, and fundamentals rather than buying simply because an asset has fallen.

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Video Description
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