Coinbase (COIN) is presenting a potential bounce opportunity near the $225 support level, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains bearish with a potential downside target of $139. An active short trade on Apple (AAPL) targets a pullback toward $238 after the stock hit key technical resistance. The bullish trend for Gold continues as long as it holds above $4,400, with a long-term price target of $5,136. In the crypto perpetual DEX sector, consider a pairs trade by going long on Lighter (LTR), with a buy zone of $2.31-$2.50, and shorting Hyperliquid. Be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC) as its rally approaches major resistance between $95,000 and $100,000, where a price rejection is anticipated.

Gold

• The speaker is holding a long trade on Gold from the previous year, viewing the current price action as bullish.
• The price broke out of an ascending triangle formation.
• A key level to watch is $4,400. The speaker notes that as long as Gold can consolidate and hold above this level, the outlook is positive.
• Price targets mentioned are TP1, TP2, and TP3, with the highest target (TP3) at $5,136.

Takeaways

• The sentiment for Gold is bullish as long as it remains above the $4,400 support level.
• Investors could consider this a positive sign for the commodities sector, with potential upside towards $5,136 if the trend continues.

Silver & Platinum

• These metals are described as being more choppy and volatile than Gold.
• Silver has already met a major price target of $85.59 from a large "cup and handle" pattern and now needs time to consolidate.
• Platinum is also described as "incredibly volatile" but has broken out of a massive long-term range, which is significant.
• The speaker believes commodities are still in a bull run, which could benefit these metals long-term.

Takeaways

• Expect more volatility and less clear short-term trends from Silver and Platinum compared to Gold.
• Silver may trade sideways or pull back as it needs "breathing room" after its large run-up.
• The overall bullish trend in commodities is a positive factor for these metals, but the timing for new entries is less clear due to recent volatility.

US Stock Market Indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones)

• S&P 500 & Dow Jones: Both are still in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. The speaker views this as positive for continued upward movement.
• Nasdaq: The index is "stalling out" but is considered to be in a range-bound phase as long as it holds above a key support zone (referred to as the "yellow box").

Takeaways

• The broad market trend for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remains bullish.
• The Nasdaq is showing some weakness but is not yet considered bearish. Investors should watch if it can hold its current support level.

Coinbase (COIN)

• The stock has pulled back to a key support area, which is a confluence of two factors:
  • The bottom of a large parallel rising channel.
  • A filled CME futures gap, with the price tagging $225. The gap ranged from $212 to $231.
• This area is described as a potential bounce zone due to the combined support.

Takeaways

• COIN is at a technical level that suggests a potential short-term bounce.
• Traders might see the $225 area as a potential entry point for a short-term trade, anticipating a move up from this support level.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The stock is described as being in a "very troubled position" and is consolidating at its lows.
• The speaker notes a previously successful short trade on MSTR that resulted in a 51% decline.
• The next major support level to watch for the stock is at $139.

Takeaways

• The sentiment for MSTR is strongly bearish.
• The stock is showing significant weakness, and investors should be aware that the price could continue to fall towards the next major support at $139.

Apple (AAPL)

• The speaker is currently holding a short trade on Apple.
• The reason for the short trade is based on technical analysis: the price hit the top of a parallel channel and a rising wedge pattern, which are typically bearish signals.
• The price target for this short trade is $238.
• The speaker mentions they will close the trade if it doesn't move into profit soon to avoid paying funding fees.

Takeaways

• According to the speaker's analysis, AAPL is showing bearish signs on the chart and could pull back towards $238.
• This is presented as an active, short-term trade idea with a clear invalidation (cutting the trade if it doesn't move down soon).

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Overall Sentiment: The higher timeframe trend is still considered bearish. The current upward price movement is viewed as a "relief rally" within a larger downtrend.
• Resistance Levels:
  • A major resistance zone is in the mid-$90,000s, specifically at the Volume Point of Control ($95,300). This is where the most trading has occurred over the last year.
  • The psychological level of $100,000 is also a major resistance, coinciding with the 200-day EMA.
  • The 21-week and 50-week EMAs are about to cross near $98,000, adding another layer of resistance.
• Potential Scenario:
  • Bitcoin could rally to the $95,000 - $100,000 resistance area.
  • A rejection from this area is expected, followed by a pullback to around $90,000.
  • If Bitcoin can hold $90,000 as support after the pullback, it would be the first significant bullish signal and a potential opportunity to look for long trades.

Takeaways

• Be cautious, as the current rally is likely heading into a wall of resistance between $95,000 and $100,000. This area is a potential zone for taking profits or initiating short positions.
• The higher-timeframe trend is not yet bullish. A key sign of a potential trend shift would be a successful retest and bounce from the $90,000 level after a rejection from resistance.
• The speaker advises using this relief rally as an opportunity to sell weaker altcoins and consolidate into stronger assets like Bitcoin.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Mentioned as one of the "majors" to focus on for a concentrated portfolio, alongside Bitcoin and Solana.
• A significant data point was highlighted from the Hyperliquid whale tracker: a single entity is holding a massive $2.42 billion short position on ETH.

Takeaways

• While ETH is a major cryptocurrency, the presence of a very large short position by a "whale" trader is a notable risk factor that investors should be aware of.

Perpetual DEX Tokens (Hyperliquid, Aster, Lighter)

• This sector is presented as a competitive race between different platforms, offering a relative value trade opportunity.
• Valuations Mentioned:
  • Hyperliquid: $8.67 billion market cap.
  • Aster (ASTR): $1.88 billion market cap, backed by CZ of Binance.
  • Lighter (LTR): $648 million market cap, described as potentially "incredibly undervalued."
• Trade Idea: A pairs trade was suggested: go long on Lighter (LTR) and short Hyperliquid, betting that the large valuation gap between the two will close.
• Specific Levels:
  • Aster (ASTR): A potential area to look for long entries is the $0.65 region.
  • Lighter (LTR): For a grid trading strategy, a buy zone between $2.31 and $2.50 was suggested, with a potential take-profit target of $5.00.

Takeaways

• There may be a relative value opportunity in the perpetual DEX sector.
• The speaker highlights a specific pairs trade: long LTR / short Hyperliquid, based on the thesis that Lighter's market cap is too low compared to its competitor.
• For those interested in individual tokens, potential buy zones were identified for ASTR ($0.65) and LTR ($2.31 - $2.50).