Wait for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach a seasonal low between $40,000 and $50,000 in Q3 before buying spot positions, as the current trend remains bearish below the 21 EMA.

Avoid catching the falling knife on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and instead look for a long-term bottom to form in the $50 to $80 range over the coming months.

For equity traders, the Nasdaq (QQQ) offers a high-conviction trade entry at $690 with a tight stop loss at $685, targeting a return to previous highs.

Protect profits in oil tanker stocks like TNK and STNG by raising stop losses to $71.67 and $75.81 respectively, as falling oil prices create volatility in the sector.

Exercise patience with Gold and Silver until later in Q3, while maintaining a bullish outlook on Micron (MU) with a long-term price target of $1,472.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The analyst observes that Bitcoin has recently swept new lows but seen a minor bounce. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on whether the current price action represents reaccumulation (building a base for a move up) or distribution (a pause before further dropping).

• Market Sentiment: Extreme fear is present (12% on the index). Historically, buying during extreme fear aligns with major bottoms, but the analyst believes one more "leg down" may be coming.
• Key Levels: The analyst is eyeing a potential drop into the $40,000 - $50,000 range to find a "seasonal low" in Q3.
• Technical Indicators:
  • 21 EMA: Currently acting as resistance. As long as price is below this angled-down line, the trend is bearish.
  • Volume: The recent bounce lacked significant volume, suggesting it might not be the final "spring" or bottom yet.
  • Bullish Divergence: The analyst is hunting for a "bullish divergence" on the weekly RSI (where price makes a lower low but the RSI makes a higher low) as a signal to buy.

Takeaways

• Wait for Confirmation: Avoid "catching the falling knife" until a clear trading range forms and a higher low is established.
• Spot Strategy: The primary recommendation is to buy Spot Bitcoin at the eventual low rather than using high leverage during the volatility.
• The "2x Strategy": For more aggressive investors, once a bull trend is confirmed (price breaks above the trading range), use spot Bitcoin as collateral for a low-leverage (2x) long to accumulate more BTC as the price rises.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

The analyst views MicroStrategy as a leading indicator for Bitcoin. The stock is currently creating new lows and is in a "markdown" phase.

• Price Targets: Looking for a bottom between $50 and $80.
• Risk Factors: Mentioned that Michael Saylor may face pressure; if the stock stays low, he may be unable to buy more Bitcoin through the company and might eventually need to sell, creating further downward pressure.
• Bottoming Process: The analyst expects MSTR to bottom and stay at lows for "many, many months" rather than a V-shaped recovery.

Takeaways

• Patience is Key: There is no rush to buy the bottom here; the reaccumulation phase will likely take months.
• Short Position: The analyst is still holding 25% of a short trade from $306, targeting the $50-$80 zone.

Stock Market & Indices (QQQ, DIA, SPY)

The market is currently in the "June Swoon," a historical period of weakness from mid-to-late June.

• Nasdaq (QQQ): Looking for a trade setup in the $690 - $700 range.
  • Trade Idea: Enter at $690 with a stop loss at $685. This offers a 5:1 risk-to-reward ratio if it returns to previous highs.
• Dow Jones (DIA): Showing more strength than the Nasdaq. As long as it holds recent support, the expectation is for higher highs.
• Magnificent 7 (MAGS): These stocks (Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, etc.) are under pressure.
  • Nvidia (NVDA): Potential support at $190.
  • Tesla (TSLA): If it loses its current trend line, it could drop to $260.

Takeaways

• Focus on Risk/Reward: The Nasdaq setup at $690 is highlighted as a high-probability trade with a tight stop loss.
• Avoid Weakness: Stay away from the "Mags" (Magnificent 7) until clear support structures develop.

Commodities & Metals

A general "seasonal low" is expected for metals in Q3, followed by reaccumulation.

• Gold: Expected to drop further toward $3,300.
• Silver: Target of $53, with a potential flush down to $46.
• Oil: Dropping significantly, which is viewed as a positive for the global economy and inflation control.
• Tanker Stocks (TNK, FRO, STNG): Due to oil's drop, the analyst recommends raising stop losses to protect profits.
  • TNK Stop Loss: $71.67.
  • STNG Stop Loss: $75.81.

Takeaways

• Tighten Stops: If you are in shipping/tanker trades, move stop losses to "Thursday's lows" to avoid giving back gains.
• Wait on Metals: Metals are currently like a "knife through butter"; wait for Q3 to look for long-term entries.

Other Notable Mentions

• Coinbase (COIN): Bearish in the medium term. Expected to drop another 7-8% to recent lows, with a major support level way down at $113.
• Robinhood (HOOD): Potential drop back to $8.00 following the current sell-off.
• Micron (MU): Still bullish and in an uptrend. Target is $1,472.
• DXY (US Dollar Index): The dollar is pumping. As long as it stays above 100.5, it is in a bull trend, which typically creates headwinds for Crypto and Stocks.