Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) near current levels between $64,107 and $64,500, as institutional buying and exhausted retail selling indicate a major market bottom is forming. Track the ETH/BTC ratio closely to capitalize on potential altcoin momentum following its weekly breakout from a long-term downward trend. Monitor Samsung earnings on July 30th for heavily discounted entry points in the South Korean KOSPI index, especially after SK Hynix bounced off key technical support. Analyze upcoming AI capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft and Meta to gauge near-term sentiment for the broader tech and semiconductor sectors. Finally, remain cautious of rising Treasury yields and tighter financial conditions while taking advantage of high-yield opportunities like MetaMask's limited-time 6% APR money market feature.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Trading around $64,107 to $64,500 during the FOMC announcement and reacting mildly to the interest rate hold.
• Mentioned as being in a boring or quiet market phase, with the host noting it is hard to be bullish right now.
• Institutional capital is reportedly continuing to allocate and ramp up investments while retail investors have stopped selling, which are classic ingredients for a market bottom according to guest Matt Hogan.
• The ETH/BTC chart is showing momentum and has broken out of a long-term downward trend on the weekly timeframe.

Takeaways

• Watch the ETH/BTC breakout closely to see if it can sustain its momentum, as a successful breakout could signal strength for altcoins.
• Institutional accumulation combined with exhausted retail selling suggests a potential market bottom is forming.

Samsung and SK Hynix (South Korean Stock Market)

• The South Korean KOSPI index experienced a significant downturn, down 39.8%, heavily driven by Samsung and SK Hynix, which make up 70% of the South Korean Stock Exchange.
• SK Hynix recently reported its best-ever results, but missed expectations (revenue at 79.3 trillion won versus the expected 84 trillion won, and operating profit at 60 trillion won versus 64 trillion won expected), leading to a heavy sell-off.
• The SK Hynix chart bounced precisely off the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly timeframe, indicating a potential recovery.
• Samsung earnings are scheduled to be reported on July 30th, which could heavily influence the direction of the South Korean market.

Takeaways

• Monitor Samsung earnings on July 30th for potential bounce opportunities in South Korean equities, especially given the oversold conditions and the technical bounce on SK Hynix.

Big Tech Earnings (Microsoft and Meta)

• Microsoft and Meta earnings are scheduled to release after the market close on the day of the broadcast.
• The primary focus for these earnings will not just be revenue and earnings per share estimates (Microsoft estimated at +15% revenue and +16% EPS growth), but rather management guidance regarding AI, capital expenditures (CapEx), and AI spending.

Takeaways

• Pay close attention to AI infrastructure and CapEx guidance from Microsoft and Meta earnings reports, as these metrics heavily drive broader sentiment in the tech and semiconductor sectors.

Traditional Finance (TradFi) and Derivatives

• The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, matching market expectations and preventing a surprise rate hike that 33.7% of the market and Citadel had predicted.
• Treasury yields and real rates have seen material increases between meetings, with the 30-year US mortgage yield up 1%.
• Platforms like Bybit are offering perpetual futures (perps) on TradFi pairs (stocks and traditional assets), allowing users to trade traditional markets similarly to crypto.
• MetaMask has introduced a money market feature offering a 6% APR on funds kept within the wallet for a limited time.

Takeaways

• Be cautious of rising real interest rates and Treasury yields, which are tightening financial conditions independently of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Explore platforms offering TradFi perps if you want to trade traditional assets like stocks using crypto derivatives infrastructure.