Consider a high-risk trade by scaling into Bitcoin (BTC) on dips towards $65,000, but be aware this is a counter-trend move against a bearish long-term outlook. Extreme caution is advised for most altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX), which are expected to continue falling. An exception is Hyperliquid (HYPE), which shows relative strength and presents a potential long trade with a stop loss at $0.27. The outlook for Coinbase (COIN) is bearish, with a high probability of the stock falling to its next support target of $113. Among US indices, the Dow Jones (DJI) is showing the most strength while others remain choppy.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Recent Price Action: Bitcoin experienced a $10,000 sell-off followed by a rapid $10,000 bounce, which is considered bullish short-term price action. This bounce occurred after the market hit extremely oversold conditions.
• Market Sentiment: The host believes it is "very, very, very unlikely" that the absolute bear market bottom is in. However, the recent low could be a local low that holds for a couple of months.
• Historical Analysis & Timing:
  • Historically, Bitcoin bear markets bottom between the 0.786 and 0.886 Fibonacci retracement levels. This suggests a potential major bottoming range between $28,000 and $39,000.
  • A similar drawdown in a past cycle (a 57% drop after losing a key support level) would project a price of $29,000.
  • Based on timing cycles, the ultimate bear market low is predicted to occur between late Q3 and early Q4 of 2026.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • Support: The price found support at the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
  • Resistance: Bitcoin closed the week below the macro 50% level, which is historically a bearish sign suggesting lower prices are likely. Major resistance is now located between $85,000 and $90,000.
  • Bearish Signal: Bitcoin is currently trading below the 100-week moving average. In past bear markets, it has stayed below this level for extended periods (from 182 to 532 days). It has only been below for 13 days so far.

Takeaways

• Long-Term Outlook: The analyst is bearish long-term, suggesting the final market bottom has not yet been reached and could occur in the $28k - $39k range in late 2026.
• Bullish Confirmation: For a bullish trend to be confirmed, Bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold above the 100-week moving average, which is currently around the $90,000 level. A more immediate sign of strength would be reclaiming and holding $75,000 for multiple weeks.
• Risky Trade Idea: A high-risk, counter-trend trade was proposed:
  • Strategy: Use scaled orders to buy Bitcoin on a dip towards $65,000. This means buying small amounts initially and increasing the buy size as the price gets closer to the target.
  • Rationale: This trade attempts to catch a potential higher low if the local bottom is in.
  • Warning: This is an "incredibly risky trade" because it goes against the current downtrend. If Bitcoin fails to bounce quickly from $65,000, the price will likely continue to fall sharply.

US Stock Market

• Dow Jones (DJI): Considered "very, very, very strong." It is holding above its key support level of 48,000. The next level to watch is 49,000.
• S&P 500 (SPX): Experienced a "big shakeout" but recovered strongly with a "huge bullish engulfing candle," reclaiming the 6,900 support level. The analyst advises caution, expecting some choppy price action before a clear direction is established.
• Nasdaq (QQQ): The chart looks weaker, having broken key support levels. A potential bullish case involves an ascending triangle pattern, which could target $715 if the price breaks above $636. However, this is described as a "hopium case" and not yet confirmed.

Takeaways

• The Dow Jones is showing the most strength among the major indices.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed some signs of a potential bounce, but the analyst suggests waiting for more confirmation and price stability before becoming confident in a continued move up.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Recent Price Action: The price was "obliterated," briefly touching $1,700.
• Technical Analysis: Ethereum is stuck in an "insanely long trading range." The analysis suggests that the longer a financial asset stays in a trading range, the more powerful the eventual breakout will be. This range has been forming for a very long time.
• Price Target: This is not a short-term prediction, but if Ethereum eventually breaks out of this long-term range to the upside, the host believes "$20,000 ETH calls are absolutely a possibility."

Takeaways

• Ethereum is currently range-bound, meaning it's trading between clear support and resistance levels without a strong trend.
• The long-term potential is significant. A future breakout above the current multi-year range could lead to a massive price increase.

Solana (SOL)

• Recent Price Action: Described as having been "absolutely annihilated."
• Key Levels:
  • Resistance: Any bounce or "relief rally" is likely to face strong resistance at $110.
  • Support/Target: A potential "wick fill" strategy (where price returns to fill an inefficient area on the chart) targets the $77.23 level. This could be an area for a bounce if the recent low holds.

Takeaways

• The short-term outlook is bearish, with significant resistance overhead at $110.
• Traders looking for a bounce might watch the $77 area, but this depends on the broader market finding a bottom.

Other Altcoins

• General Sentiment: The overall altcoin sector is "absolutely wrecked." The host warns against "catching a falling knife" as most charts look very bearish.
  • Cardano (ADA): Expected to ultimately fall to around 16 cents, despite any potential short-term bounces.
  • Avalanche (AVAX): Described as "very bearish" and likely to make new lows.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE):
  • Context: Highlighted as one of the few altcoins that is "not too bad," showing relative strength compared to the rest of the market for the past three weeks.
  • Fundamental Note: A comparison was made to Robinhood (HOOD), suggesting that either Robinhood is overvalued or Hyperliquid is fundamentally undervalued.
  • Trade Idea: A potential long trade was identified if it holds its current support channel. The main stop loss for this trade idea is at $0.27.

Takeaways

• Extreme caution is advised for most altcoins, as the outlook is overwhelmingly bearish.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a notable exception that has shown relative strength. Investors looking for opportunities in the altcoin space might research this project further, but a clear trade plan with a stop loss (like the one mentioned at $0.27) is crucial.

Coinbase (COIN)

• Context: The stock is attempting to find support at its current price level.
• Sentiment: The outlook is bearish. The host believes there is a "good chance" the price will continue to fall to its next target of $113 because major technical structures on the chart have been broken.

Takeaways

• Despite being at a potential support zone, the analyst expects further downside for COIN to the $113 level.