The crypto bull market is believed to be starting now, driven by expanding global net liquidity, making the recent correction a prime accumulation opportunity. For Bitcoin, the correction appears over, with a sustained move above $95,000 acting as a key confirmation for the next leg up. The major run for altcoins is expected to begin once the PMI index, a measure of economic expansion, surpasses the 55-60 range. A significant bullish catalyst is the NASDAQ increasing the options cap for the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), signaling deep institutional support. While the market is showing immediate strength, the primary bull market phase is anticipated to occur in 2026.

Cryptocurrency (Overall Market)

• The speaker is extremely bullish on the crypto market, stating he sold stocks, property, and other assets to buy more crypto.
• He believes the real bull market has not started yet and that the recent 36% correction was a major buying opportunity.
• The speaker's core thesis is that the crypto market is driven by global net liquidity, not the traditional "four-year cycle" tied to the Bitcoin halving. He believes the halving's correlation to past bull markets was a coincidence.
• He argues that 2025 has not been a true bull market because global net liquidity has been contracting. He expects this to change and for the bull market to begin now, with 2026 being the major bull market year.

Takeaways

• The speaker's sentiment is that this is a prime opportunity to accumulate crypto assets following a significant market correction and before the next major liquidity expansion.
• Investors should pay attention to macroeconomic factors like global net liquidity and the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) rather than just the Bitcoin halving schedule.
• The catalyst for the next bull run is expected to be an expansion in liquidity, driven by:
  • The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
  • Upcoming rate cuts.
  • A halt in the draining of the Treasury General Account (TGA).

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker believes the correction for Bitcoin is over and that the price has moved back into its upward-trending wedge pattern that began in 2023.
• The price bounced off the production cost line for Bitcoin, which historically acts as a floor during bull markets.
• The correction successfully shook out weak hands and reset leverage in the system, with the market experiencing multiple days of extreme fear.
• A key technical indicator, the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, have not crossed downwards, which historically suggests a bear market has not begun.
• The speaker identified several key price levels for Bitcoin's recovery:
  • $93,442: The yearly open price.
  • $95,000: A key historical support and resistance level.
  • $100,000: A major psychological barrier.
  • $102,416: The current level of the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), considered a critical bull market support line.

Takeaways

• Bitcoin is showing signs of bottoming after a severe correction. A move and hold above the $95,000 and subsequently the $102,416 (50-week SMA) levels would confirm a bullish continuation for the speaker.
• The speaker believes Bitcoin's price will rally to "catch up" with the performance of major tech stocks (MAG7) as liquidity returns to the market.
• The primary driver for Bitcoin's next leg up is the expansion of the PMI. The speaker notes that when the PMI breaks above 50, Bitcoin historically starts to run.

Altcoins

• The speaker believes the major run for altcoins has not happened yet in this cycle.
• He ties the performance of altcoins directly to the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), which measures economic expansion.
• Based on the 2021 cycle, he states that when the PMI gets above 55 or 60, altcoins begin their significant bull run.

Takeaways

• Investors looking for exposure to altcoins should monitor the PMI. A sustained move above the 55-60 range could signal the start of "altcoin season."
• The speaker's thesis suggests that the big move for altcoins will follow Bitcoin's run and is likely to occur in 2026 when the economy is expanding more robustly.

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

• The speaker highlights a major bullish development: the NASDAQ is increasing the options cap for IBIT from 25,000 to 1 million contracts.
• He calls this the "biggest news of the week," suggesting it's a massive institutional development that retail investors might overlook.
• This change allows for:
  • Deeper liquidity and tighter spreads as market makers can hedge more effectively.
  • Banks to create more structured products on Bitcoin.
  • Institutional funds with specific regulatory mandates to now gain exposure to Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• This is a significant structural improvement for Bitcoin's market, making it more accessible and efficient for large institutional players.
• The development directly counters negative news (FUD) around other Bitcoin-related products and signals deepening institutional adoption.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The speaker mentions the "FUD" (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) surrounding MicroStrategy, specifically the risk that it could be excluded from the MSCI indices.
• He implies this negative news is now widely known and likely priced into the market.
• He also suggests this is part of a larger, politically motivated attack, which he details in a separate video.

Takeaways

• While a risk factor for MSTR was mentioned, the speaker framed it as part of the overall market negativity that created the recent buying opportunity. He did not give a direct buy or sell recommendation but focused on the positive institutional developments for Bitcoin itself (like the IBIT news) as a more powerful force.

Silver

• The speaker points out that Silver has broken out of a bullish "cup and handle" pattern.
• He notes that the correlation between Bitcoin and Silver is approaching 90%.
• He views Silver's run as a positive leading indicator for Bitcoin, as they are both seen as the "smaller, more risky alternatives" to gold that perform well when risk appetite increases.

Takeaways

• The bullish price action in Silver supports the thesis that risk assets are beginning to perform well, which could foreshadow a similar move in Bitcoin.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

• The speaker highlights a strong weekly candle on the Russell 2000 index, which tracks 2,000 smaller-cap US stocks.
• Similar to Silver, he interprets this as a sign of a "shift in liquidity" towards riskier assets.

Takeaways

• The strength in smaller-cap stocks is another data point supporting the idea that market liquidity is improving and investors are increasing their risk appetite, a positive environment for crypto.