Consider a long trade on Apple (AAPL) with a tight stop loss below the August 21st low, as the setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio targeting recent highs. The bullish trend in NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to continue, presenting an opportunity for long positions with a price target of $212. The current dip in Bitcoin (BTC) is viewed as a buying opportunity, with key support levels to watch for potential entry around $105,000 and $101,000. Investors using MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a proxy for Bitcoin may want to rotate directly into BTC, as MSTR is showing signs of weakness. For a speculative opportunity, consider generating trading volume on the DairyW decentralized exchange to potentially qualify for a future airdrop.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The market is in a short-term corrective phase, with the speaker noting that bears are in control. This correction is viewed as a potential "healthy reset" or "shakeout."
• A significant divergence is noted between Bitcoin and the M2 money supply (with a 12-week lead). Historically, when the M2 supply rises, Bitcoin follows about three months later. The current deviation, with M2 rising and BTC falling, is presented as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
• The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a corrective phase, with the expectation that it will dip below the 50 level to signal a market reset.
• The market is watching for the outcome of the current week's candle. A third consecutive red weekly close would increase the probability of a longer correction, potentially lasting 4 to 8 weeks.
• Key Support Levels:
  • First major support: $105,000
  • Second major support: $101,000
  • Key 50% Fibonacci retracement level: $99,554
  • A break and hold below $100,000 would be a cause for concern.
• Key Resistance/Recovery Level:
  • Bears remain in control until Bitcoin can reclaim $117,000. A move above this level would be a strong signal that the low is in.
• Liquidation Levels:
  • There is approximately $73 million in short liquidations clustered around the $117,000 price level.
  • There is approximately $15 million in long liquidations around the $108,000 price level.

Takeaways

• The short-term trend for Bitcoin is bearish. Investors should be cautious and expect continued choppy price action.
• The current dip could be a long-term buying opportunity, especially given the bullish signal from the M2 money supply.
• Watch the key support levels at $105k and $101k for potential bounces or entries.
• A decisive move back above $117k is needed to confirm that bulls have regained control of the market.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Ethereum is described as one of the strongest assets, outperforming Bitcoin. This is supported by data showing significant capital flows from Bitcoin into Ethereum, with daily flows just shy of $1 billion.
• The speaker mentioned their own long positions entered at $1,550 and $1,750.
• The price is currently at a "range high," which is a key resistance area. This could lead to a "deviation" or pullback.
• When asked about a "worst-case scenario," the speaker suggested a deep flush down to the 50% retracement level of the entire multi-year move. Such a pullback would be considered the "next best buying opportunity" for those who missed the run-up.

Takeaways

• Ethereum is showing significant relative strength and is a primary destination for capital rotating out of Bitcoin.
• While the long-term outlook is strong, the price is at a key resistance level, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback.
• A significant price drop could present a prime buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Major Stocks

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The speaker is in an active long trade on NVIDIA.
• The sentiment is bullish, and the trade "looks good for continuation."
• A price target of $212 is mentioned.
• The advice is to take profits incrementally as the price moves up.

Takeaways

• The outlook for NVIDIA is bullish in the short term. Investors in the trade are advised to consider taking partial profits on the way up toward the $212 target.

Apple (AAPL)

• A specific long trade setup was identified.
• Entry: Scale into a position around the current price.
• Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the low from August 21st.
• Target: The conservative target is near the recent highs. A potential target of $248 was mentioned in a re-entry scenario.
• The setup offers a 3.32-to-1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Takeaways

• A clear, actionable trade setup was provided for Apple. Investors could consider this long trade, paying close attention to the specified stop-loss level to manage risk.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• The stock is currently pulling back, and the speaker advises against taking a short-term trade ("wouldn't touch this one").
• However, the high-timeframe view is described as "very, very, very bullish."
• A long-term price target of $753 is mentioned, to be reached before the end of the macro bull run.

Takeaways

• MSFT may not be suitable for short-term traders due to the current pullback.
• For long-term investors, the outlook is extremely bullish, with a very high price target suggested.

Tesla (TSLA)

• A recent short-term long trade on Tesla was stopped out for a loss.
• For those holding long positions, the next major resistance level is $412.
• If Tesla can break out above $412, the speaker believes it could go to $720 during a full macro bull market.

Takeaways

• The key level for Tesla bulls to watch is $412. A breakout above this resistance could unlock significant further upside potential in a strong market.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The stock is showing signs of weakness relative to Bitcoin, as it is failing to make new highs while Bitcoin has.
• This is described as a "high risk trade" at this stage of the market cycle.
• The speaker notes that near the end of the last bull run, MSTR's price fell while Bitcoin's continued to rise.
• The suggestion is that investors may be better off moving out of a proxy bet like MSTR and into Bitcoin directly.

Takeaways

• MSTR is considered a risky investment right now due to its underperformance compared to Bitcoin. Investors using MSTR as a leveraged bet on Bitcoin may want to reconsider their strategy and potentially rotate directly into BTC.

Coinbase (COIN)

• The stock is holding at a key 50% Fibonacci support level.
• It is expected to "reaccumulate" (trade sideways) at this level, and its price action will likely mirror the broader crypto market.

Takeaways

• COIN is at a critical support level. Investors should watch for signs of stabilization here. Its future performance is heavily tied to the direction of the overall crypto market.

Other Altcoins & Opportunities

Crypto.com (CRO)

• The coin saw a massive 40% move on the day of the recording.
• It is approaching a "sticky area" of resistance between $0.24 and $0.25.
• If it can close above this resistance zone, it could open up a new trading range with a potential target of $0.46.

Takeaways

• CRO has strong recent momentum but is at a critical resistance point. A sustained break above $0.25 is the key signal for a potential doubling in price.

Hyperliquid (HYP)

• Described as one of the "strongest charts in crypto," breaking into new all-time highs while the rest of the market corrects.
• Its strength is attributed to the growing demand for on-chain trading platforms.
• A strong weekly close at all-time highs would suggest the "melt up" is likely to continue.

Takeaways

• Hyperliquid is showing exceptional strength and momentum, defying the broader market trend. It is a strong performer to watch.

Nobody Sausage (Solana Meme Coin)

• A meme coin on Solana that the speaker previously recommended, which is up almost 700%.
• The speaker is actively taking profits and scaling out of the position as it rises.
• The stated plan is to potentially re-enter after a "big flush towards the downside."

Takeaways

• This is a high-risk, high-reward meme coin. For those in profit, the speaker's action of selling suggests it may be prudent to consider locking in some gains.

DairyW (Airdrop Opportunity)

• This is a new decentralized exchange (DEX) that is offering a future airdrop to early users, similar to the model used by Hyperliquid.
• Users can get a $50 trading bonus and qualify for the airdrop by generating trading volume on the platform.
• The speaker suggests a strategy to generate volume with minimal risk: open simultaneous long and short positions on an asset like Bitcoin to remain market-neutral while accumulating volume, especially since the platform is offering zero gas fees.

Takeaways

• This is a speculative opportunity to potentially earn a valuable airdrop for free (or for very low cost). Users interested in airdrop farming could explore this platform.

Ethena (ENA)

• The coin is "chopping about" and failing at its 50% retracement level, which is a bearish sign.
• A pullback is expected, with a potential support level to watch around the $0.50 region.

Takeaways

• ENA is showing short-term weakness. Investors should be cautious and watch for a potential dip to the $0.50 support area.