Consider a short-term long trade on Bitcoin (BTC), targeting a bounce to $100,850 before the longer-term downtrend potentially resumes. For those bearish on crypto proxies, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is presented as a high-conviction short trade with continued downside expected. In altcoins, **Astar (ASTR

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker has a generally bearish outlook on Bitcoin for the long term, suggesting the market may have already entered a bear market.
• The monthly chart is described as "incredibly bearish," with a potential MACD bearish cross on the horizon. Historically, this has signaled the start of a bear market.
• To avoid this bearish cross, Bitcoin would need to close the month above $97,400, which is considered unlikely.
• The speaker's personal exit signal for the bull market was around the $108k region.
• Despite the bearish long-term view, a short-term "complacency bounce" or "dead cat bounce" is considered highly probable due to several factors:
  • Price has pulled back roughly 30%, a level that often precedes a bounce.
  • The price is testing a key support level in a parallel channel that has held for almost a year.
  • Daily momentum indicators are "redlined" (oversold), suggesting bears are running out of steam in the short term.
  • A TD Sequential 9 buy signal has appeared, suggesting a 1-to-4 day corrective bounce is likely.

Takeaways

• This is a counter-trend trade idea. The primary trend is considered to be down.
• Long Trade Idea: The speaker proposes a short-term long trade to capitalize on the expected bounce.
  • Entry: Consider scaling into a long position around the current levels (the speaker's target of $88k has been hit). A more favorable entry could be around $90,700.
  • Target: The primary profit-taking target is $100,850. This area is expected to be a major resistance zone.
  • Stop Loss: A tight stop loss should be placed just below the most recent swing low. If this level breaks, the price is expected to fall much further, potentially towards the $80k - $85k region.
• Risk: The biggest risk is that this is a trade against the dominant trend. Any bounce is likely to be met with heavy selling pressure, forming a "lower high" before the downtrend continues. A key indicator to watch is the USDT Dominance chart; if it continues to rise, it will create a headwind for Bitcoin's price.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• The speaker is in a short trade on MicroStrategy and is currently up significantly (40-50%).
• The stock experienced a "massive collapse," dropping 10% in a single day.
• The sentiment is clearly bearish.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees continued weakness in MicroStrategy, viewing it as a good candidate for a swing short trade to hold during a potential crypto bear market.
• Investors should be cautious, as the analysis suggests significant downward momentum and a bearish outlook.

Gold (XAU) & Silver (XAG)

• The speaker is actively in short trades on both Gold and Silver, believing they will put in a top before the end of the year.
• The trend for both metals is seen as shifting downwards, with price action creating lower lows and lower highs.
• The trades are described as high-risk, but the speaker has moved stop losses to break-even, eliminating the risk of loss on the initial position.
• For Silver, a break above the $52 - $53 level would invalidate the bearish short-trade idea.

Takeaways

• The analysis presents a bearish case for precious metals in the short to medium term.
• Traders could look for short opportunities, but should be aware of the high-risk nature and use strict risk management. The trend is your friend until it ends, and the speaker believes the uptrend is ending.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• NVIDIA's recent earnings report beat market expectations, which provided some short-term relief to the market.
• The price is at a critical "line in the sand" around $184.
  • Holding above $184 gives bulls some hope for a continued bounce.
  • Falling below $184 would put bears firmly in control.
• The speaker is not taking a new trade on NVIDIA at this moment and is waiting to re-evaluate.

Takeaways

• The $184 level is the key pivot point to watch for NVIDIA.
• While the earnings were good, the technical picture is uncertain. The speaker advises against "aping into" a long trade here and suggests waiting for more clarity.

Other Stocks & Cryptocurrencies

• Coinbase (COIN): Mentioned as "struggling" and heading down towards $219. The sentiment is bearish.
• Robinhood (HOOD): Similar to NVIDIA, it is below a key support/resistance level. The speaker notes that bulls would want to see the price get back above $120.
• Ethereum (ETH): The speaker is cautious. For ETH to look bullish, it needs to reclaim the $3,175 level. A significant, sustained rally is not expected until Q1 of next year.
• Solana (SOL): The chart is described as "sloppy." The next major resistance level to watch is $152, which is expected to be a difficult area for the price to overcome.
• Zcash (ZEC): The chart is viewed as "still very strong." The speaker holds a small position and believes a 12-hour candle close above $740 could trigger a significant pump. The outlook is bullish.
• Astar (ASTR): The chart looks "very good," continuing to make higher highs and higher lows. A long trade could be considered with a stop loss just below $1.25. The outlook is bullish.
• Sui (SUI): Described as "absolutely smashed" and in a downtrend with no current trade setup. The outlook is bearish.