Be cautious with Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins ahead of the upcoming CPI report, as historical data suggests a potential "sell the news" price drop. For a potential long position, consider entering Ethena (ENA) on a dip between $0.77 and $0.752, which has been identified as a prime bounce play. Another opportunity is in HYPE, a fundamentally strong project, by waiting for a pullback to the $53.7 or $52.0 support zones for a better entry. Toncoin (TON) shows bullish divergence, making a grid trading strategy an interesting way to accumulate the asset through volatility. Finally, if holding the top-performing Avalanche (AVAX), consider taking profits as it approaches heavy resistance at $30.4 and $32.8.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The market is reacting positively to bullish PPI (Producer Price Index) news, but the speaker warns against getting "too euphoric" as BTC is approaching several resistance levels.
• Key Resistance Levels:
  • $113,800 (Macro Fibonacci level)
  • $114,700 (50-day Moving Average)
  • $115,200 (Liquidity target)
  • $118,000 (3-day chart resistance)
  • $130,900 (Major 3-day chart resistance)
• Key Support Levels:
  • If the price dips, potential buying opportunities could be at $112,900 and $112,000.
• Risk Factors:
  • The upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) report is a major event. A strong pump leading into the report could create a "sell the news" opportunity, where the price dumps even on average results.
  • Historically, the last three CPI reports on September 11th have resulted in a 9% to 11% drop in BTC's price.
  • Another analyst's thesis mentioned a potential market top by the end of the year, with a Bitcoin short target of $135,473.

Takeaways

• Bitcoin is in a "danger zone" with multiple resistance levels directly overhead. While sentiment is bullish, caution is advised.
• Traders could watch the support levels at $112,900 and $112,000 for potential dip-buying opportunities.
• Be extremely cautious around the upcoming CPI data release, as it could introduce significant volatility and a potential price drop.

Altcoins (General)

• Most altcoins are currently at local resistance levels, similar to Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin Dominance is sitting on a support level. If Bitcoin Dominance rises while Bitcoin's price is flat or falling, altcoins could get "absolutely rinsed" (suffer heavy losses).
• The "Alt Season Index" is at 69, a level that has previously signaled a very short-lived altcoin rally (3-4 days) followed by a major correction.
• The Total3 chart (total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH) looks "squeezy" and poised for a potential pop, but a rejection from its current level could lead to a 10-20% dip across many altcoins.

Takeaways

• This may not be a sustainable "alt season." The speaker advises being prepared for a short-lived rally followed by a potential sharp correction.
• The current environment is risky for altcoins. It is crucial to monitor Bitcoin's price and its dominance chart.
• The speaker suggests taking profits on altcoin positions and being measured rather than getting overly greedy.

Avalanche (AVAX)

• AVAX has been a top performer, described as an "absolute cooker." Its recent pump is partially attributed to the Gun Token (GUN), a gaming token on the Avalanche network.
• AVAX is approaching significant macro resistance zones, which could also be considered areas to take profit or open a short position.
• Upside Targets / Short Zones:
  • $30.4
  • $32.8
• If a market-wide dump occurs (e.g., due to CPI), a potential long entry could be considered around $25.8.

Takeaways

• AVAX is showing strong momentum, but it is heading into heavy resistance.
• Traders in long positions could consider taking profits at $30.4 and $32.8. These levels could also be areas to watch for a potential price rejection.

Solana (SOL)

• SOL is at a critical price level, pushing through the $219 resistance. The key question is whether this is a genuine breakout or a "fake out" before a drop.
• A successful breakout could see the price move towards the next major resistance at $242.
• The one-hour chart is showing some bearish signs, suggesting a pullback is possible before any further move up.
• Potential Long Entry Zones (on a dip):
  • $215 - $216: A higher-probability zone with confluence from the VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price).
  • $209 - $210: A stronger, safer support zone.

Takeaways

• Buying SOL at its current price is considered risky as it's at resistance.
• A more patient strategy would be to wait for a pullback to the identified support zones ($215-$216 or $209-$210) to look for a long entry with a better risk-to-reward ratio.

Hype (HYPE)

• Described as a "banger" with strong fundamentals, including buybacks and a dominant market share. It has shown resilience, holding its value well during market dips.
• The speaker is holding a long position and has an upside target of $58.7.
• Buying at the current price of $55.6 is considered buying at resistance.
• Potential Long Entry Zones (on a dip):
  • $53.7 (Degen bounce zone)
  • $52.0 (Stronger backup support)

Takeaways

• HYPE is presented as a strong project to consider for long-term holds or dip-buying.
• Avoid buying at the current resistance. Look for entries on pullbacks to the support levels at $53.7 or $52.0.

Toncoin (TON)

• TON is showing daily bullish divergence on its chart, a signal that a potential price reversal to the upside could be coming.
• The speaker has opted for a unique strategy: opening a 6x leverage grid trading bot on the Pionex exchange.
• The bot is designed to trade the volatility and accumulate more TON if the price dips further, particularly towards the 786 Fibonacci retracement level.
• The liquidation price for the bot is set at $2.3, below recent lows, providing a buffer against a sharp drop.

Takeaways

• TON shows bullish reversal signs that are not present in many other altcoins.
• For those interested in this play, the speaker suggests a grid trading bot as a way to capitalize on the potential move without having to time the exact bottom. The speaker's bot is available to be copied from the podcast's show notes.

Other Mentioned Assets

Ethereum (ETH)

• Context: ETH has pumped into a major resistance zone between $4,450 and $4,500. This is a typical area for price rejection.
• Takeaway: For aggressive traders, a potential bullish continuation play could be to long a dip into the $4,340 - $4,370 support zone.

Lido (LDO)

• Context: LDO is at a resistance zone, making it a candidate for a "hedge short" to protect against market weakness. The speaker has entered a short position.
• Takeaway: LDO could be used to hedge a portfolio of long positions. An entry for a short could be sought as high as possible, potentially after a final push towards $1.245.

XRP (XRP)

• Context: The speaker has added to a short position as XRP is at resistance. However, it could squeeze another 2% higher before falling.
• Takeaway: XRP is in a potential short zone, but traders must use strict risk management as a further price squeeze is possible before a potential downturn.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• Context: The speaker is in a long position on this Bitcoin-proxy stock.
• Takeaway: The key support level to watch for this long trade is $3.17.

Virtual (VIRTUAL)

• Context: A favored token of the speaker, but it's at a major resistance wall.
• Takeaway: A patient entry strategy is recommended. Wait for a pullback and consider laddering buys in the $1.21 to $1.17 support zone, which offers a better entry than buying at the current resistance.

Ethena (ENA)

• Context: Identified as the "win entry today" by the speaker. The one-hour chart is showing signs of a potential reversal.
• Takeaway: A potential long entry zone is identified between $0.77 and $0.752 for a bounce play.

S (S)

• Context: A high-risk, high-reward play. The speaker is waiting for a deep pullback to a zone where "nobody is interested."
• Takeaway: A potential long entry zone is identified between $0.293 and $0.287. This is a trade for patient investors looking for a deep value entry.