A drop towards $100,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) is considered a significant buying opportunity, but watch for a potential rejection at the $114,500 resistance level. A short-term trade on Ethereum (ETH) is viable, targeting a bounce towards the $4,400 resistance area from its current support. For stock traders, consider entering a long position on NVIDIA (NVDA) on a pullback to $179. The new partnership between XRP and Axelar (AXL) presents a potential long opportunity as both tokens are at key support levels. Finally, watch for a breakout in Avalanche (AVAX) above its yearly open to target $45.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker notes that the market is trying to find equilibrium. A short-term bounce is considered probable off key support levels.
• A key resistance level to watch on a bounce is $114,500. If Bitcoin rejects from this level, especially with low volume, it could be a "dead cat bounce" leading to new lows.
• The speaker mentions that large weekly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have historically occurred near major market bottoms, suggesting that any further drops could be significant buying opportunities.
• A potential further drop to around $100,000 is mentioned as a "great buying opportunity."
• Cycle Timing: The current bull run is 1,049 days old, which is very close to the length of the 2017 (1,067 days) and 2021 (1,059 days) cycles. This suggests the market is in a late stage, and investors should be careful.
• Key Technical Levels:
  • The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is a critical support level for the bull market. Holding below it would be a major warning sign.
  • Bitcoin is currently testing a key support zone. A break below the recent lows would be a "change of character" and a bearish signal, as previous retests of breakout levels led to aggressive rallies, which hasn't happened this time.
  • The next major support level below the current zone is the 50 EMA, rising towards $100,000.
• Bollinger Bands are very tight, indicating a period of low volatility. An expansion is expected. If the expansion happens while price is above key support, it could lead to a final parabolic run-up, with a historical move of ~76% potentially targeting $195,000.
• The area between $114,500 and $115,000 is described as the "battle line" where bulls and bears will fight for control. A rejection here could lead to a drop towards $100,000. A break above it would be very bullish.

Takeaways

• The short-term bias is for a bounce towards the $114,500 - $115,000 resistance area.
• Actionable Insight: Watch how Bitcoin reacts at this "battle line." A strong rejection could be a signal to de-risk or expect lower prices. A breakout above this level would be a strong bullish confirmation.
• Any significant dip, especially towards the $100,000 level, is presented as a potential long-term buying opportunity.
• Investors should be cautious as the market cycle is in its late stages. It's time to "count the coins" and consider concentrating portfolios into fewer, stronger assets.

Ethereum (ETH)

• ETH has hit the low of its current trading range, suggesting a bounce is likely.
• The bounce target is the middle of the range, which lines up with a "bearish order block" around $4,400.
• The speaker notes two possibilities:
  1. Range Trade: Price bounces from the range low to the mid-range (around $4,400) and rejects.
  2. Bearish Trend: Price rallies to the bearish order block, forms a lower high, and then breaks down below the current range low, with the next major support around $3,500.
• The speaker added to their own long ETH position, viewing the current level as a good zone for a bounce.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight: A short-term long trade from the current levels could be considered, targeting the mid-range area around $4,400.
• Be prepared for a potential rejection at that level. A failure to break through could signal a move down to the next major support at $3,500.

Stocks & Stock Market Indices

• The speaker is bullish on the stock market, noting the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are continuing to rise, showing a different picture than crypto.
• NVIDIA (NVDA):
  • The stock is pushing back up.
  • A potential long trade opportunity is identified on a pullback to $179.
  • The suggested trade setup is: Entry at $179, Stop Loss at $167.50.
• Tesla (TSLA):
  • Holding above a key breakout level on the 4-hour chart.
  • The speaker mentions a final target of $720, acknowledging it "sounds crazy."
• Meta (META):
  • Remains strong as long as it holds above a key support zone (the "yellow box").
• MicroStrategy (MSTR):
  • Described as a "canary in the coal mine" for Bitcoin.
  • It showed bearish divergence by making lower highs while Bitcoin made new all-time highs.
  • Major support is at $298.
• Robinhood (HOOD):
  • Described as "super parabolic" and "very, very, very strong," hitting new all-time highs.

Takeaways

• The overall sentiment for the stock market is bullish.
• Actionable Insight (NVDA): For traders looking to enter NVIDIA, a potential entry point is on a dip to $179.
• Crypto-related Stocks: Keep an eye on MicroStrategy (MSTR). Its underperformance relative to Bitcoin could be a warning sign for the broader crypto market.

Avalanche (AVAX)

• The speaker had previously called for closing a long position at the yearly open, which was the exact top.
• They then identified an opportunity to re-enter the long trade, which has since seen a "big, strong move towards the upside."
• If AVAX can trade back above the yearly open, it is considered "super bullish."
• The next major target is the resistance zone ("yellow box") around $45.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight: The sentiment on AVAX is bullish. A break and hold above the yearly open could signal a continued move up towards the $45 target.

XRP (XRP) & Axelar (AXL)

• XRP has hit a "very clear support" level and is in a "good zone" for a bounce. The speaker added a small amount to their leveraged long position.
• A new partnership between XRP and Axelar (AXL) was highlighted, which unlocks a 6% to 8% yield for XRP holders through liquid staking.
• This news comes as both XRP and Axelar are hitting key support levels on their charts.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight: The combination of hitting key technical support and positive fundamental news (the Axelar partnership) presents a potential long opportunity for both XRP and AXL.

Astar (ASTA)

• The speaker is in a long trade on ASTA and is up significantly.
• The token hit its first price target and is now consolidating.
• The speaker believes that if it holds its current level, it could form a "bull flag" pattern, which is a bullish continuation signal that could lead to higher prices.
• The speaker is continuing to hold their ASTA positions.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight: The sentiment on ASTA is bullish. The current consolidation could be a precursor to another move up. Investors could watch for a breakout from this consolidation.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

• The speaker is in a long trade on NEAR and is up 82%.
• The chart is described as "not too bad."
• The plan is to hold the trade for a potential run-up into a resistance zone, with possible targets at $4.80 and even $7.00.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight: The outlook for NEAR is bullish. The speaker is holding for higher targets, suggesting potential for further upside.

Other Altcoins

• Solana (SOL): A bounce is possible, but the chart shows a buildup of "picture perfect" low-highs, which is viewed as liquidity that could be "swept" in a sharp move down if a lower high is formed. Caution is advised.
• Sei (SEI): The token is at key support, but it has been tested many times (five touch points), which increases the risk of it breaking down. The speaker prefers to wait for a confirmed break above resistance around $0.34 - $0.35 before considering a trade. A break above could lead to an 80% move to $0.60.
• Cardano (ADA): The chart shows a "big, big, big rejection." The speaker is not interested in taking a long position here.
• Memecoins (Pepe, Bonk, etc.): The general sentiment is very bearish. Pepe and Bonk are described as looking "bad" and "very, very, very heavy," with risks of falling further.
• Zero Gravity (0G): A new AI Layer 1 project the speaker is very bullish on. It's described as a potential market disruptor. The token is already up significantly since launch.

Takeaways

• Actionable Insight (Sei): A patient strategy for SEI would be to wait for a breakout above $0.35. This would be a strong bullish signal with a potential target of $0.60.
• Risk Warning: Be cautious with Solana due to the potential for a liquidity sweep downwards. The speaker is broadly bearish on most memecoins mentioned, suggesting they look weak and could drop further.