If Bitcoin Fails This, September Starts With Pain For Crypto!
If Bitcoin Fails This, September Starts With Pain For Crypto!
250 days agoโ€ขCrypto Banter
Podcast55 min 2 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

A potential short opportunity is identified for Ethereum (ETH) near the $4,700 resistance level, which is considered a prime area for a reversal. For long-term investors, consider setting buy orders for Solana (SOL) in the key support zone between $170 and $166. A significant swing trade opportunity for Sui (SUI) may present itself in the $3.00 - $3.11 range, which is viewed as a major support area. Look for a strong buying opportunity in Aerodrome Finance (AERO) if the price corrects to the "monster bounce zone" between $1.00 and $1.06. Traders should watch for a potential short setup on Avalanche (AVAX) if it rallies into the $24.4 - $24.6 resistance area.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The market was described as choppy over the weekend, with BTC trading just below $109k.
  • A bullish divergence on the 2-hour chart suggests a potential for a short-term push to the upside.
  • Upside price targets in the short term are $109,660 and $111k. A move higher to $113,500 is considered a "serious danger zone" and a potential rejection area.
  • The speaker's "first prize plan" is for the market to create a bear trap by flushing below the weekend low to the $107,260 level to grab liquidity before pumping higher.
  • Historically, September is Bitcoin's weakest month (averaging -3.7%). However, since August 2024 is closing as a red month (similar to 2023 and 2024), the speaker speculates that the market may have "front-run" the dump and could see a green September.
  • A weekly close below $114k is considered a bearish signal that could lead to a deeper correction, with potential downside targets at $105k, $100k, and $93,500. A chart from another analyst (Lark Davis) suggests a drop to $97k-$98k is possible if key levels are lost.

Takeaways

  • Short-term bullishness: Be prepared for a possible short-term price increase towards $111k. The area around $113,500 is a strong resistance level where one might consider taking profits on long positions or looking for short opportunities.
  • Watch for a dip: A sudden drop to the $107k area could be a "bear trap" designed to shake out traders before a move up. This could present a buying opportunity if the price quickly reclaims higher levels.
  • Long-term caution: Despite short-term bullish signs, the higher timeframe (3-day chart) remains bearish. If the price fails to hold current levels, be aware of major support zones at $105k, $100k, and $93,500 where the price could find a more significant bottom.

Bitcoin Dominance

  • The discussion references a theory that Bitcoin Dominance could move higher in September and October.
  • If Bitcoin's price is flat or falling while its dominance rises, it would be very negative for altcoins, causing them to lose value.
  • A potential scenario is a sharp drop in dominance, causing a brief, euphoric altcoin rally, followed by a strong bounce in dominance from the 57% level, which would then "wreck" the altcoin market.

Takeaways

  • Altcoin Risk: An increasing Bitcoin Dominance is a major risk factor for altcoin holders. The speaker is strategically looking for opportunities to short altcoins on any pumps until a clear market bottom is established.
  • Be Wary of Altcoin Rallies: A sudden, sharp rally in altcoins could be a trap. If Bitcoin Dominance reaches the key 57% support level and bounces, it could signal a significant downturn for altcoins.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • A prediction of ETH going 100x to a $48 trillion market cap was dismissed as "ridiculous."
  • The higher timeframe (3-day chart) for ETH is considered bearish.
  • A major long-term support zone is identified between $4,100 and $3,950. This is an area where a significant bounce could be expected.
  • In the short term, $4,500 is acting as resistance.
  • The next major resistance and "danger zone" is $4,700. A push to this level could create a bearish divergence, presenting a "dreamy" short opportunity.

Takeaways

  • Key Levels to Watch: For traders, $4,500 is the immediate resistance to watch. A break above could lead to $4,700, which is highlighted as a strong area to potentially take profit on longs or initiate shorts.
  • Potential Swing Long: For investors looking for a longer-term entry, the zone between $4,100 and $3,950 is a key area of interest for a potential major bounce.

Solana (SOL)

  • The 3-day chart shows multiple bearish divergences, suggesting the price is exhausted and struggling to move higher.
  • If SOL were to pump significantly, the $240 region is identified as a major rejection zone where a reversal is likely.
  • Two key zones for entering long-term long positions are $190 - $186 and $170 - $166.
  • In the short term, a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart suggests a potential pop higher.
  • Potential targets for this short-term move are $210 and $216.

Takeaways

  • Short-Term Trade Idea: Traders could watch for a breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A successful breakout could target $210 and $216. The speaker suggests a strategy of waiting for a breakout, a rejection (e.g., at $207), and then buying the dip on a retest of support.
  • Long-Term Buy Zones: Investors should keep an eye on the $190 - $186 and $170 - $166 levels. A market-wide correction that brings SOL to these zones could present a strong buying opportunity.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Mentioned as a potential breakout trade.
  • Upside targets for a breakout are $46.3, $48, and $49.5.
  • A breakout trading strategy was outlined: enter a small position on the initial breakout, and if the price pulls back to key Fibonacci support levels (0.382 or 0.5), add to the position for the next move up.
  • If the price pulls back before breaking out, the zone between $44.58 and $44.3 is a key support area to look for buy entries.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Breakout Play: HYPE is set up for a potential upward move. Traders can either play the breakout directly or wait for a dip to the $44.3 - $44.58 support zone to enter a long position, targeting $46.3 and higher.

Loopring (LRC)

  • The token was identified as being in the "overbought" section on a heatmap, suggesting it could be due for a correction.
  • A potential "dreamy short zone" is identified at $0.13. If the price pumps to this level, it could be a good opportunity to enter a short position.

Takeaways

  • Potential Short Opportunity: This is a higher-risk "degen short" idea. If LRC experiences a strong pump towards $0.13, it could be a prime candidate for a reversal. Traders considering this should use a smaller position size and a wider stop loss due to potential volatility.

Sui (SUI)

  • The speaker believes SUI is likely to return to its "home base" around $3.1.
  • Any short-term pumps are viewed as opportunities to add to short positions.
  • A significant swing trade long opportunity is identified in the zone from $3.11 down to $3.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Outlook with a Buy Target: The short-term sentiment is bearish. For investors, the $3.00 - $3.11 range is a key area to set buy orders for a potential major swing trade long.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO)

  • The price has hit an initial support area, but the speaker expects it could go lower.
  • A key buy zone is identified from $1.1 down to $1.08.
  • An even stronger, "monster bounce zone" is highlighted lower down, from $1.06 down to $1.

Takeaways

  • Layer Your Bids: For those looking to buy AERO, it may be wise to be patient. While the $1.08 - $1.10 area is a valid support, the zone from $1.00 - $1.06 is considered a "banger trade zone" for a potentially stronger bounce.

Avalanche (AVAX)

  • After a successful trade, the speaker is now looking for a new opportunity on AVAX.
  • A potential short opportunity is identified if the price pumps into the $24.4 to $24.6 zone. This area represents a confluence of resistance from a trendline, VWAP, and a Fibonacci level.

Takeaways

  • Potential Short Setup: If AVAX rallies towards the $24.4 - $24.6 area, it could face significant resistance. This is a level to watch for a potential reversal and a short trade opportunity.

Other Altcoin Setups

  • Lido (LDO): The speaker is in a long position but is cautious of a potential bear flag. If current lows are lost, key buy zones to watch are $1.17, $1.14, and $1.13.
  • Pepe (PEPE): The token is at a critical point. It needs to bounce from its current level (within a 4% range). If it fails, the next major support and potential buy zone is between 90 and 84.
  • Curve (CRV): Currently sitting on support around 754. If this level breaks, a "proper banger" long entry zone is identified between 67 and 62, which aligns with the 200-day moving average.
  • Wawa (WAWA): The setup requires a bounce from the current zone. The key support is 313, with a potential fake-out to 310. A stronger buy zone ("banger") is at 290.
  • Super (SUPER): In a bounce zone at 57. If that fails, the next major support level is at 49.
  • Pendle (PENDLE): At a make-or-break point. The current support is $4.6 down to $4.5. If that fails, the next significant buy zone is $4.1 down to $3.9.
  • Polygon (MATIC): The speaker expressed a very negative sentiment, calling it "absolute filth" and comparing its user experience to "Windows 95," implying a fundamental bearishness.
  • Trump Token (WLFI): The spot token is launching. This is an event to watch, as it could either be a "nothing burger" or attract significant buying volume from a new pool of investors.

Traditional Markets (TradFi)

  • Gold: Appears bullish, but the speaker is anticipating a reversal and a short opportunity around the $3,500 level.
  • Silver: The price breaking $40 is noted as a potential warning sign for the broader health of the markets.
  • S&P 500 (SPX): Technical indicators (reversal dot, bearish divergence) suggest a potential "red week" for the stock market, which could create headwinds for crypto.
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Episode Description
If Bitcoin fails to close above $114K, September could start with more pain than the market is already experiencing. Join Dylan as he maps the key levels, outcomes for hold vs fail, and the risk to altcoins. Heโ€™ll review market structure and all the correlations into the weekly close and what a confirmed close below support would imply for trend, volatility, and a possible range breakdown. ___________________________________________ ๐ŸŽ“ ๐——๐˜†๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ปโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ซ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—น - ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜†๐˜€! ๐Ÿ‘‰ Trading Xcelerator | Crypto Schoolย  ๐Ÿš€ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ - ๐——๐˜†๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ปโ€™๐˜€ ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฐ๐—น๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—š๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฝ! ๐Ÿ‘‰ Join Chart Hackers ___________________________________________ ๐—–๐—›๐—˜๐—–๐—ž ๐—ข๐—จ๐—ง ๐——๐—ฌ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—กโ€™๐—ฆ ๐—ฃ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—ง๐—ก๐—˜๐—ฅ ๐—˜๐—ซ๐—–๐—›๐—”๐—ก๐—š๐—˜๐—ฆ โฌ‡๏ธ ๐Ÿš€ ๐—–๐—ข๐—œ๐—ก๐—˜๐—ซ - ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ, ๐—˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ป & ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—š๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฐ๐—น๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€! ๐Ÿ‘‰ CoinEx Sign Up ๐Ÿ’ฐ ๐—•๐—ง๐—–๐—– - ๐—จ๐—ฝ ๐˜๐—ผ $๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜€! ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—ž๐—ฌ๐—–! ๐Ÿ‘‰ BTCC Welcome Bonus ๐Ÿณ ๐—ช๐—˜๐—˜๐—ซ - ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—จ๐—ฝ ๐—ง๐—ผ $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—จ๐—ฆ๐——๐—ง! ๐Ÿ‘‰ WEEX Sign Up Bonusย  โ˜„๏ธ ๐—•๐—Ÿ๐—ข๐—™๐—œ๐—ก - ๐—š๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ ๐˜๐—ผ $๐Ÿฐ,๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—ž๐—ฌ๐—– ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฉ๐—ฃ๐—ก ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ! ๐Ÿ‘‰ Blofin Welcome Bonus ๐Ÿ’ต ๐—•๐—ฌ๐—•๐—œ๐—ง - ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ ๐˜๐—ผ $๐Ÿฏ๐Ÿฌ๐—ž ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐˜€! ๐Ÿ‘‰ BYBIT Welcome Bonus ๐Ÿ”ฅ ๐—•๐—œ๐—ง๐—™๐—จ๐—ก๐——๐—˜๐—— - ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ช๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ข๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒโ€™๐˜€ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜†! ๐Ÿ‘‰ Bitfunded Register ___________________________________________ ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ ๐—–๐—ฅ๐—ฌ๐—ฃ๐—ง๐—ข ๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช๐—ฆ๐—Ÿ๐—˜๐—ง๐—ง๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—ฆ - ๐—ฆ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป ๐—จ๐—ฝ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—™๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—˜!! ๐Ÿ“ฌ ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐——๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—น๐—ฒ - https://bit.ly/DC-Dylan ๐Ÿ“ฌ ๐—š๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฑ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—–๐—ฟ๐˜†๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ผ - https://bit.ly/GMC-Dylan ๐Ÿ“ฃ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜ ๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—น๐˜€: ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐——๐˜†๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ซ: https://x.com/thelordofentryย  ___________________________________________ ๐Ÿ‘๏ธโ€๐Ÿ—จ๏ธ ๐—–๐—ฟ๐˜†๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜:ย  Our Ethics โ€“ Crypto Banter We take our code of ethics very seriously and have engaged @zachxbt (ZachXBT) to monitor our progress. If you feel weโ€™re not living up to it and have hard evidence please mail ZachXBT directly at reportcb@protonmail.comย  โš ๏ธ ๐—•๐—˜๐—ช๐—”๐—ฅ๐—˜ ๐—ข๐—™ ๐—ฆ๐—–๐—”๐— ๐— ๐—˜๐—ฅ๐—ฆ ๐—œ๐—ก ๐—ข๐—จ๐—ฅ ๐—–๐—ข๐— ๐— ๐—˜๐—ก๐—ง๐—ฆ ๐—”๐—ก๐—— ๐—–๐—ข๐— ๐— ๐—จ๐—ก๐—œ๐—ง๐—ฌ ๐—–๐—›๐—”๐—ก๐—ก๐—˜๐—Ÿ๐—ฆ ___________________________________________ ๐Ÿ“ ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ: Crypto Banter is a social podcast for entertainment purposes only! All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, and callers should not be construed as financial advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests do not reflect the views of the station. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research.
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