Prepare for volatility around Wednesday's FOMC meeting by keeping capital ready to deploy on potential market dips. For a potential reversal trade, consider a long entry on Hyperliquid (HYPE) within the $51.90 to $51.20 price range. Another opportunity is in Pendle (PENDLE), with a potential long position entry around $4.73 where a bounce is expected. Set alerts for potential long entries on meme coins Bonk (BONK) at $0.0000222 and Pepe (PEPE) near $0.0000105. For the trending token Pump (PUMP), the strategy is to buy dips towards the $0.0075 support level instead of chasing rallies.

Market Outlook & Key Events

• The upcoming week is considered critical due to major economic events, primarily the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. This includes the interest rate decision, the press conference with Jerome Powell, and the dot plot predictions.
• Strategy for FOMC: The speaker suggests a simple strategy:
  • If the market dumps hard leading into the FOMC meeting, they will be looking for long positions (to buy).
  • If the market pumps leading into the meeting, they will be looking for exit plays (to sell).
• Rate Cut Expectations: The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut. A surprise 50 basis point cut is seen as highly unlikely.
• Short-Term Bearish Factors:
  • Triple Witching: This event on Friday, where multiple options and futures contracts expire, has historically been short-term bearish for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 1.1% in the following week.
  • Altcoin Cooldown: Many altcoins have seen significant pumps recently (e.g., Brett up 28%), and a reset or cooldown is considered healthy and expected. Higher timeframes (like the 12-hour charts) for many altcoins are looking bearish.

Takeaways

• Be Cautious: The overall sentiment is one of caution leading into the FOMC meeting. The speaker advises against aggressive trading, suggesting smaller position sizes and wider stop-losses.
• Prepare for Volatility: Wednesday's FOMC press conference is expected to cause significant market volatility.
• Have "Dry Powder": Keep capital ready to deploy. If the market sells off into Wednesday, it could present prime buying opportunities at better prices.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker is looking for short-term bounces on Bitcoin, viewing the current dip as a potential entry opportunity ahead of the FOMC meeting.
• Short-Term Bounce Zones:
  • $114,500 to $114,000: This is the first reaction zone, supported by the 50-day moving average, VWAP, and horizontal support levels.
  • $113,000: This is the next major support level to watch for a bounce if the first zone fails.
• Higher Timeframe View:
  • The long-term "dream scenario" would be for BTC to make a new low, potentially tapping $105,000, to create a strong bullish divergence on the 3-day chart. This would signal a more sustainable move up.
• Liquidity Levels:
  • A "juicy" area for market makers to target is the $112,000 - $113,000 range to the downside.
  • To the upside, $117,000 is a key level to watch, which corresponds to an unfilled CME gap.

Takeaways

• Potential Long Entries: Consider looking for long (buy) positions in the $114.5k - $114k range and again at $113k. These are identified as strong short-term support areas.
• Manage Risk: If BTC starts pumping strongly before Wednesday's FOMC meeting, it may be a signal to take profits or reduce exposure, as this could be a "sell the news" event.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Ethereum shows conflicting signals: lower timeframes suggest a bounce is near, while higher timeframes look very bearish.
• Bullish Signs (Short-Term):
  • The 1-hour chart is showing bullish divergence, indicating that downward momentum is weakening and a reversal could be imminent.
• Bearish Signs (Higher-Term):
  • The 12-hour chart is described as "super bearish" and is signaling more downside is likely.
• Key Bounce Zones:
  • First Zone: $4,500 down to $4,470. This is the immediate area of interest for a potential bounce.
  • Degen Zones: If the first zone fails, look for reactions at $4,430 and $4,340.

Takeaways

• Trade with Caution: Given the bearish higher timeframe, any long positions should be considered short-term trades.
• Look for Entries: The identified bounce zones ($4,500-$4,470, $4,430, $4,340) are areas to watch for potential entry points for a quick bounce trade.

Solana (SOL)

• Solana is looking bearish on higher timeframes after being rejected from a key resistance level.
• Higher Timeframe Support: The major support levels to watch if the sell-off continues are $214 and $190. The daily chart looks "rough," suggesting these levels are on the table.
• Short-Term Bounce Zones:
  • The 2-hour chart suggests a small bounce may be possible.
  • Key reaction zones for a short-term trade are $230, $224, and potentially $218 if there is a quick, sharp drop.

Takeaways

• Potential for More Downside: Be prepared for SOL to potentially drop to the $214 or even $190 level in the medium term.
• Short-Term Play: For traders, the $230 and $224 levels are areas to watch for a potential small, short-term bounce.

Pump (PUMP) & Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• These two tokens are described as the "new twins" and the current "flavor of the month," attracting significant trader interest.
• Pump (PUMP):
  • It is outperforming and has flipped Hyperliquid in 24-hour revenue, partly due to its new live-streaming launch feature on X.
  • Strategy: For a strongly trending token like Pump, the speaker advises buying dips to the 236 Fibonacci retracement level and the local VWAP.
  • The key support level to watch is $0.0075, where it recently bounced.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE):
  • The token has been selling off since Friday, but a bounce zone is approaching.
  • Entry Zone: A good area to look for a long entry is between $51.9 and $51.2.
  • Indicators on the 2-hour and 4-hour charts are near lows, suggesting a reversal is possible.

Takeaways

• Trade the Trend: Pump is currently a momentum play. The strategy is to buy the dips on red days, not chase green candles. Watch the $0.0075 support.
• Hype Entry: Set alerts for the $51.9 - $51.2 range on Hype, as this is identified as a strong potential bounce zone.

Other Altcoins & Opportunities

• Pendle (PENDLE):
  • The speaker is actively trading this, looking for a bounce.
  • A potential double bullish divergence is forming, suggesting a bounce is near.
  • Action: Consider adding to or opening a long position around $4.73. The stop-loss mentioned is a candle close below $4.8.
• Sui (SUI):
  • Has a bullish catalyst with a new $50 million token buyback program.
  • Action: Bounce zones are identified as $3.49 - $3.47 (current zone) and a backup zone at $3.40. Lower timeframes are "screaming" for a bounce.
• Injective (INJ):
  • Approaching a major support confluence (horizontal, trendline, and 618 fib level).
  • Action: A bounce is expected around $13.1. Be aware this might be a very small, short-term bounce.
• Bonk (BONK):
  • An entry is coming up, with a "double reversal" pattern forming on the oscillator.
  • Action: Set an alert and look for a long entry at $0.0000222 ("triple two").
• Pepe (PEPE):
  • Similar to Bonk, an entry is approaching with strong technical signals.
  • Action: Look for a long entry soon around $0.0000105.
• Avantis (AVNT):
  • A new DEX on the Base network, seen as a potential "shiny new object."
  • Action: If the token gets hyped, a potential long entry could be on a dip to $0.92.
• NVIDIA (NVDA):
  • Despite negative news from China, the stock bounced off its 50-day moving average, a bullish short-term sign.
  • Action: Monitor NVDA, as its performance is seen as a reliable indicator for the S&P 500. A breakdown in NVDA could signal a wider market pullback.