Benjamin Cowen maintains a bearish outlook on BTC, noting that the asset historically forms lows in February of midterm years followed by brief countertrend rallies before further declines. He highlights that social interest in crypto is trending down while restrictive monetary policy and macro headwinds are expected to persist through the first half of 2026. The author argues that despite claims of a "supercycle," the market continues to follow established four-year cycles, and he remains skeptical of a near-term "alt season" for altcoins.